+ Turkey: Emerging Great Power Between West &
East
+ Sudan’s Generals at Daggers Drawn
+ Putin’s Ukraine War
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Turkey’s Same Old & New Leader
A slim majority of Turkey’s voters decided to have the same old wine in the same old bottles. However, some changes may still come.
Turkey straddles both Europe and Asia and is an emerging great power in its own right and punches far above its weight in international affairs. This is all because a great charismatic leader is at the helm of power.
He may be belittled in the West as an ‘authoritarian’, but he has still managed to take Turkey on its own unique path of distinction.
He has thumbed his nose at the West and prevented Russia – a conventional and nuclear great power by any account – from converting the Black Sea into a Russian lake.
Turkey’s longtime leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, took the oath of office Saturday, ushering in his third presidential term that followed three stints as prime minister (AP/Associated Press, June 3).
Erdogan, 69, won a new five-year term in a runoff presidential race last week that will stretch his 20-rule [ many would even say ‘reign’ and entitle him with ‘Sultan’ ] into a quarter-century.
The country of 85 million controls NATO’s second-largest army [ after that of the US ], hosts millions of refugees and played a Ukraine grain, averting a global food crisis.
Erdogan was sworn in during a session in parliament before an inauguration ceremony at the sprawling presidential palace complex.
Supporters waited outside parliament despite the heavy rain, covering his car with red carnations as he arrived.
Closely Courted by NATO
Dozens of foreign dignitaries travelled to attend the ceremony, including NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Carl Bildt, a high-profile former Swedish prime minister.
They are expected to press Erdogan to lift his country’s objections to Sweden’s membership in the military alliance – which requires unanimous approval by all members.
Turkey accuses Sweden of being too soft on Kurdish militants
and other groups that Turkey considers to be terrorists.
NATO wants to bring Sweden into the alliance by the time allied leaders meet in Lithuania on July 11-12, but Turkey and Hungary have yet to endorse the bid.
Besides Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban — the enfant terrible of the alliance – the other leaders that attended the ceremony include Azerbaijan’s Ilhan Aliyev, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan, Pakistan’s Shahbaz Sharif, and Libya’s Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.
Turkey’s Way Forward
Turkey’s more than US Dollar $ 900 billion economy is the eighth largest in Europe.
Erdogan, who has been in power for two decades, built is electoral success on growth-oriented economic policies that have lifted millions of Turks into the middle class (NYT/June 5).
However, experts say the pumped-up expansion is not sustainable.
Erdogan has appointed as his finance minister Mehmet Simsek, a versatile economist who does not share Erdogan’s barmy ideas about the economy.
The prospects for Turkey’s economy may now be improving.
In foreign affairs, Erdogan’s efforts to position himself as a power broker between Russia and his NATO allies since the war in Ukraine began has further underscored Turkey’s geopolitical influence.
The war has shifted the traditional balance between Moscow and Ankara.
The future of this contested region will depend on the dynamics between Russia, Turkey, NATO, the EU, and – Ukraine.
Sudan Fighting Intensifies
For nearly seven weeks, deadly fighting between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has gripped the capital Khartoum and the flashpoint western region of Darfur despite repeated efforts to broker a humanitarian ceasefire.
Shelling rocked greater Khartoum, as fighting between Sudan’s warring generals intensified despite US sanctions imposed after the collapse of the US- and Saudi-brokered truce.
Witnesses reported artillery fire around the state television building in the capital’s sister city of Omdurman, just across the River Nile.
The army announced it had brought reinforcements to the capital from other parts of Sudan to participate in operations in the Khartoum area.
Washington slapped sanctions on the warring parties on Thursday, holding them both responsible for provoking ‘appalling’ bloodshed.
Sudan experts question the efficacy of sanctions on the warring sides, both of which amassed considerable wealth during the rule of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, whose government was subjected to decades of international sanctions before his overthrow in 2019.
Since fighting erupted on April 15, more than 1,800 people have been killed.
The UN says 1.2 million people have been displaced within Sudan and more than 425,000 have fled abroad.
It is clear that death and destruction cannot be allowed to continue in this manner.
The United Nations, the African Union and regional powers must urgently find ways and means to stop the armed conflict between the power-hungry and greedy generals – if need be, by sidelining them.
Putin’s Ukraine War
Putin’s Anti-American Revival
Russia itself is under siege these days; however not at all compared to Ukraine.
There have been drones over the Kremlin, skirmishes with dissident Russian militants in Belgorod, just across the Ukrainian border, and recently drone attacks on Moscow.
These have now turned Putin’s war, to a small extent, in Russia’s direction. Putin and his henchmen are now getting a taste of their own medicine!
Russia is reviving Stalinist anti-Americanism to justify a botched war.
In Putin’s worldview, this fits exactly under the theme of the United States as the bad actor (Fareed’s Global Briefing, June 1).
In a Foreign Affairs essay, Andrei Kolesnikov notes that when drones were shot down over the Kremlin in early May, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quick to blame the US – alleging Washington had directed Kyiv, which “only does what it is told
Peskov’s remark was part of a larger pattern in Putin’s regime, Kolesnikov writes: reviving the Soviet Union’s “conspiratorial anti-Americanism,” which included ideas about the US seeking to destroy the Russian people.
Kolesnikov writes: “In 2022, the derogatory term Anglosaksy – discussions and even entered the vocabulary of ordinary Russians. But the term which refers to scheming Americans who lead obedient European satellites is by no means an invention of the Putin regime. It comes directly from the Soviet lexicon of power of the late 1940s and early 1950s, when it was deployed to refer to the Soviet Union’s most important adversaries. In its current ideology and propaganda, Moscow has intuitively or consciously regurgitated classic Russian conspiracy theories, which have always been – in both Soviet and post-Soviet history – a simple, universal way to explain Russia’s problems or the expansionist actions of its rulers.”
Russian Public Opinion & Popularity of Putin’s War
It’s difficult to know how deeply Putin’s state ideology has taken root in Russian society – or how popular is war on Ukraine is – due to the inherent difficulties of opinion polling in authoritarian states.
However, the independent Russian Levada-Center does suggest Putin’s approval rating rose significantly since February 2022, when he launched the invasion.
The Russian-affairs expert S. Frederick Starr sizes up Russian sentiments: “Winners attract followers, and since Putin’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 Russia’s massive propaganda industry has systematically suppressed all information to the contrary. The question now is whether and how average Russians will turn against the war as they see their sons, husbands and brothers return from Ukraine in zinc coffins. For more than a year no one dared speak of the dead soldiers, and mentioned them only by using the army’s own euphemism for those sent home: ‘cargo’ (gruz). But this is now changing.”
Ukraine’s Resolute Defence
In Ukraine, air defences shot down more than 30 Russian cruise missiles and drones last Friday In Moscow’s sixth attack in six days on Kyiv.
The Ukrainian capital was simultaneously attacked from different directions by Iranian-made Shahed drones from the Caspian Sea region.
A 68-year-old man and an 11-year-old child were wounded in the attack, with private houses, outbuildings and cars sustaining damage from falling debris.
A recent spate of attacks on the capital has put strain on residents and tested the strength of Ukraine’s air defences while Kyiv officials plan an upcoming counteroffensive to push back Kremlin’s forces 15 months after their full-scale invasion.
Kyiv was the target of drone and missile attacks on 17 days last month, including daylight attacks.
Moscow’s strategy could backfire, however, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
The air campaign aims to “degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities, but…the Russian prioritization of Kyiv is likely further limiting the campaign’s ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions,” it said in an assessment (AP/Associated Press, June 2).
Ukrainian air defences intercepted all 15 cruise missiles and 21
Ukraine’s presidential office added that at least four civilians were killed and 42 wounded over the previous 24 hours.
No Cease-Fire sans Peace Deal – US
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday that a cease-fire in the war in Ukraine cannot be declared unless it is part of a ‘just and lasting’ peace deal that includes Russia’s military withdrawal (AP).
Blinken said that a ‘ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place’ and allows Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘to consolidate control over the territory he has seized, and rest, rearm, and re-attack – that is not a just and lasting peace.’
The US Foreign Secretary also stressed that allowing Moscow to keep the one-fifth of Ukrainian territory it has occupied would send the wrong message to Russia and to ‘other would-be aggressors around the world.’
In the meantime, the role of the Global South, the leading emerging economies, and the leading regional powers leaves much to be desired.
Reparations & Ukraine’s Reconstruction
There is also general consensus that Russia must also pay a share of Ukraine’s reconstruction and be held accountable for launching its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022.
Blinken reiterated this basic tenet of International Law in a speech during a visit to Finland, which recently joined NATO and shares a long border with Russia.
This was Putin’s unintended consequence – he has achieved what he wanted to avoid in the first place – NATO expansion.
Ukraine’s Membership in NATO
Russia, of course, wants any peace talks to address Ukraine’s request to join NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for his country’s membership in the Western military alliance that the Kremlin sees as a grave threat.
“Naturally, this (issue) will be one of the main irritants and potential problems for many, many years to come,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
The fact is that this issue/problem is no longer in the hands of the Kremlin [if it ever was].
Moreover, NATO is for all intents and purposes fighting a proxy war.
Ukraine’s membership of NATO is already a foregone conclusion. It is no longer a question of if, but when. To protect Europe, let Ukraine join NATO.
Other Peace Overtures
Blinken also said Washington is ready to support peace efforts by other countries, including recent overtures from China and Brazil.
But any peace agreement must uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence, but Putin is miles away on this score.
The United States is the leading Western ally and supplier of arms to Kyiv to help it push back against the Kremlin forces.
China, which maintains it is neutral [like Modi’s India] and wants to serve as a mediator but has supported Russia politically, has now urged countries to stop sending weapons to Ukraine.
For Ukraine, with this new position, China’s role has become untenable.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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