By Our Reporter
As the elections to the House of Representatives and the Provincial assemblies are approaching nearer, national politics has massively polarised to two fronts—one ruling alliance led by the Nepali Congress, and the opposition alliance led by the CPN-UML.
Both alliances look odd if we look into the political ideologies of the parties associated with the two rival alliances.
When the NC, the oldest democratic party, forged an alliance with the ultra-leftist party, the CPN-Maoist Centre, the UML, another communist party, forged an alliance with pro-royalist parties-RPP led by Rajendra Lingden and RPP-Nepal led by Kamal Thapa. More surprising is that Kamal Thapa, who waged the movements for the restoration of the monarchy since 2007 is now a UML candidate with its election symbol sun. Komal Oli, who won the post of vice chair in the RPP a few years ago is also a UML candidate from Dang.
Interestingly, in the five-party alliance led by NC, three are communist parties—Maoist Centre, CPN (Unified Socialist) and Rastriya Janamorcha while Loktantrik Samajwadi Party led by Mahantha Thakur is a regional party. The three communist parties were a part of the UML-Maoist alliance in 2017 polls although the CPN (Unified Socialist), the breakaway faction of the UML, was not in existence then.
From the UML front, two conservative parties—RPP and RPP-N- which are against the present political set-up and the constitution, and Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal of Upendra Yadav, who is also against the constitution, are contesting the election by forging an alliance.
These odd alliances have been created when the parties focused more on power than the well-being of the people.
Although the RPP and UML have forged an alliance only in three districts, they can extend it to other districts by the time election day approaches. Moreover, with the UML-led alliance, the RPP and RPP-N are enemies and the RPP is applying every measure to defeat Kamal Thapa in Makwanpur. Likewise, Upendra Yadav, who was labelling the UML as a regressive political force until a month ago, is now in the UML-led alliance.
Despite these odds, the parties are in the election fray to defeat the candidates of the rival alliance.
Although it will be too early to depict the election results, the ruling alliance is likely to win more seats than the alliance led by UML considering the strength of the parties associated with it. Of the major political parties, the Maoist is the third largest party, and it is with the first largest party NC in the alliance while the CPN (Unified Socialist) will steal the votes garnered by the UML in 2017. The local-level election results too show their strength.
In 17 of the 20 Tarai districts, the NC-led alliance is likely to win more seats, while UML will dominate Jhapa, Kailali and Dang.
Likewise, in Urban areas, and western hills, the ruling alliance may win more because NC is popular in the urban areas and Maoist Centre in the western hills. However, UML may win more seats in the hills of eastern and central Nepal.
Again, the presence of several independent candidates can impact the results. Because of innumerable independent candidates in Kathmandu, no one can predict the results.
No matter which party turns victorious, there will surely be tough competition between the two alliances. But the results may not be different from the recent local-level polls with NC emerging largest party followed by the UML and the Maoist Centre. The Unified Socialist may grab the fourth position because of the weakening position of Upendra Yadav-led party. Again, more parties, including the RPP, will emerge as nationally recognised party, which means the bigger parties will be sharing lesser seats under the PR category. Of 275 lawmakers of the Lower House, 110 will be elected under the proportional representation (PR) electoral system.
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