Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
State of the Nepali Nation: Consolidation & Determination Need of the Hour
In spite of the “Gang of Five” political parties blowing their own trumpet with regard to the results of the local-level elections and insisting – without being shamefaced – that alliance politics is needed to consolidate democracy [at least their variety or “Loktantra” which is equivalent to kleptocracy which plagues Russia, Belarus and much of the Global South], the need of the hour in our beloved Himalayan nation is rejuvenation, reawakening and consolidation of our traditional values.
The current writer’s good friend, Shri Ashok Bom Malla lately said that all Nepalese of good faith – whether young or old – are called upon to do their part to save the motherland from the clutches of the party apparatchiks.
Besides being the presumptive Raja of Galkot, [West Nepal, near Parbat, also a former principality] whose forbears did much for the principality [his father was an MP for the Nepali Congress in the country’s first parliament], his elder brother was the distinguished Thir Bom Malla, [the very first Nepali military cadet to pass out from the Indian Military Academy, Dehra Doon], the revolutionary commander in the Birgunj theatre during the glorious Revolution of 1950-51, whose political inspiration was none other than HM King Tribhuwan.
Thir Bom was assassinated by the Rana regime [a road has been named in his honour, connecting Naxal to Baluwatar in Kathmandu].
Ashok Bom also happens to be one of the more astute (maternal) nephews [bhanja] of General Subarna Shumsher [one of the leading founding members of the Nepali Congress, part of the great triad comprising B.P. Koirala and Ganesh Man Singh, and its leading financier].
Ashok Bom is of the opinion that the demand for radical change is apparent all over the country. He is one of the many Nepali Congress stalwarts who have been fully disillusioned and disgusted by the antics of the Nepali Congress [so-called] leaders – starting with Girija Prasad Koirala [to paraphrase the great bard: Yond GiPraKo “has a lean and hungry look; such men are dangerous”] and ending with Sher Bahadur Deuba [the paper tiger of Dadeldhura].
The disintegration and downward slide of the Nepali Congress started after it abandoned the twin pillars of the Nepali state – parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy [which was also supported by veteran Communist leader Madan Bhandari, for which – they say — he was exterminated by fellow Communists].
He also believes that the very many groups and activists agitating for change lack firm leadership and coordination.
He is convinced that HM King Gyanendra could provide this leadership, albeit discreet and behind the scenes.
Power, as they say, is a mix of capabilities and intentions, and for the time being, the vanguard of the movement for change and renewal can be led by rising Rajendra Lingden and the transformed Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) – after the exit of the troublemaker Kamal Thapa.
There can be no doubt that the public image of the Nepali Royal Family has been greatly augmented by the social work of HRH Princess Himani.
However, in the short term, Lingden would do well to concentrate on good governance in general, bread and butter issues, as well as, basic amenities to the people.
The paramount agenda of restoring the Hindu State and Constitutional Monarchy should be a long term effort. Many people have become aware and other are surely and certainly realizing that constitutional monarchy is the living symbol and essential pillar of the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Lingden must attempt to beat the “Gang of Five” at their own dirty game and form alliances and coalitions from the local level upward and including not only the minor parties but also independents.
The time to act is now – while the iron is hot! Every interested person can play an important role! Just imagine what will happen if the country’s leading crook cum con man and quisling, who styles himself as “Prachanda” again attains power legally?
The government newspaper “The Rising Nepal” has – God forbid – predicted “the partners must remain united through thick and thin to gain power for years to come” [!] (TRN/”Five-Party Alliance Must Hold On”, June 14).
[the present writer welcomes feedback, suggestions and critique for possible coordination].
India’s Dangerous Descent into Hindu Chauvinism
India’s terrible slide into violent Hindu chauvinism was again on display recently as Islamic states as far apart as Indonesia and the Gulf states have protested robustly against public comments by senior officials in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
They went out of their way to unwarrantedly mock one of the Prophet Mohammed’s wives.
Modi’s India is not often criticized by the United States or other Western countries who recognize its rising geo-strategic importance and its rise as a great power – politically and economically.
India needs the Gulf Arab countries more than they need it. Broadly, that significant West Asian region sends vital energy and accepts huge numbers of migrant workers from India, making the economic links of crucial importance to New Delhi (The Economist).
In addition, the region’s weight cannot be underestimated in India’s tug-of-war with arch-enemy Pakistan.
Indian embassies in the Gulf have disingenuously stated that those insulting comments do not reflect government policies, which stand diametrically opposite to what the ruling party and government is doing domestically.
In a country of 200 million Moslems, the BJP party stalwarts should have known that insulting the Prophet is a red line for swaths of the Muslim world.
French Parliamentary Election
Left Surge Threatens Macron’s Majority
French President Emmanuel Macron is at risk of losing his outright majority after a strong challenge from the coalition of left-wing parties and Greens in the National Assembly elections (BBC, June 13).
Jean-Luc Malenchon’s left-green alliance finished neck and neck with Macron’s Ensemble (Together), in terms of votes cast in Sunday’s first round.
In the French electorate system, unless a candidate wins more than 50 % percent of the vote based on a quarter of the electorate, the race culminates in a run-off next week Sunday, involving the top two candidates and anyone else who wins 12.5 % percent of the vote.
President Macron faces a battle in next week’s second round to win 289 seats and keep his majority – out of a total of 577 constituencies.
With 47.5 % percent, turnout was the lowest in modern French history. So far the election has largely failed to spark into life.
Centrist Macron won a second presidential term in April, but without a majority in the Assembly he will struggle to push through reforms. He intends to raise gradually the retirement age from 62 to 65, while left-alliance coalition leader Melenchon vows to lower it to 60 [in Germany, it is currently pegged at 68].
“Ensemble” won 25.71 % percent of the vote, marginally ahead of the left alliance’s 25.61 % percent, but was still projected to dominate the National Assembly after next week’s second round.
Pollsters are giving Ensemble 275 to 305 seats, with the left-green alliance on 175 to 205.
Far-right Marine Le Pen, who was runner-up in the presidential elections, was delighted with her party’s performance. Her National Rally won 18.74 % percent of the vote with a projected 15-30 seats, higher than her current number of eight. Another far-right leader, Eric Zemmour, was knocked out of the election in the first round.
France’s new government with Elisabeth Borge as prime minister is grappling with rising inflation and cost of living crunch – as in most parts of the world.
If the left-green alliance wins a majority next week and Jean-Luc Melenchon becomes prime minister, Macron will be forced to share executive power with him and France thrust into a period of centre-left cohabitation.
Pointing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she said: “we cannot risk instability”; France’s values were at risk, she said: “We alone have a project of coherence and responsibility” (BBC).
China Warns Taiwan Declaring ‘Independence’
China has warned the United States that any attempt to make Taiwan independent from China would trigger immediate military action by the forces of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Chinese Defence Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe met his US counterpart Gen. Lloyd Austin (retd.) on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Asian security summit in Singapore (BBC, June 12).
“Splitting” Taiwan from China would leave the Chinese military with no choice but to “fight at any cost,” General Wei said.
Austin, the former chief of the ‘Joint Chiefs of Staff’, later called Chinese military activity in the region “provocative, destabilizing.”
He said there were record numbers of Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan on a near-daily basis, which “undermine peace and stability in the region.”
Austin said the US was committed to maintaining the status quo – recognizing Beijing as the sole government of China and opposing Taiwanese independence. He insisted there must be no attempt to resolve tensions through force.
Taiwan Willing to Engage with China
Taiwan does not want to close the door to China and is willing to engage in the spirit of goodwill, but on an equal basis and without political preconditions, Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang said last Sunday (Reuters, June 12).
Earlier on Sunday at the Shangri-La security forum in Singapore, China’s defence minister said the Chinese government sought “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan but reserved “other options”.
Relations between Beijing and Taipei, which claims democratically ruled Taiwan as its own territory, are at their lowest in decades.
However, the former PLA-officer Zhou told CNBC that a military invasion was unlikely “unless and until Taiwan declares independence, unless and until an external force separates Taiwan from China, or unless and until the possibility of peaceful reunification is totally exhausted.”
Lately, China has been increasing political, economic and military pressure to get the island nation accept its overall sovereignty.
The West & Ukraine
The Washington Post’s columnist Max Boot writes: “We have swung from excessive pessimism to excessive optimism and now to excessive pessimism again. This is not the moment to lose faith in Ukraine. This is the moment to redouble our support for its freedom fighters.”
Perhaps, no commentator has been as forceful as former Georgian diplomat Jaba Devdariani, who penned an op-ed urging Europe to accept the facts of life – that it’s at war with Russia.
According to him, for ordinary Italians or French, the very idea of being conscripted into the army may still be distant, outlandish and perhaps even outrageous. But people from frontline states already see things quite differently. The Polish and Czechs see the future of their children in a much more different light than before February 24.
Nothing Changes with Putin Remaining in Power
The point about vigilance with regard to developments in Ukraine concurs with the argument of Richard Haass [president of the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations/CFR], who writes in Foreign Affairs that the West must find “a strategy for the long haul” that will allow it to “manage” its standoff with Russia, and the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, because nothing much is likely to change for as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin remains in power.
Sino-Russian Entente Cordiale?
Entente is a diplomatic term referring to a specific or non-specific ‘understanding’ between two or more states and which is distinct from a formal treaty or alliance.
But, ententes however ‘cordiale’ or amiable they may appear, usual fall short of detailed commitment on the part of either side.
The Washington Post columnist and CNN host, Fareed Zakaria argues that for the U.S. to deal with China, it must first defeat Russia.
He says that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered a major policy speech late last month on US policy vis-à-vis China – a move that was ill-suited to the moment.
Instead of concentrating on China, Zakaria argues that “The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia.” Chinese President “Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with alliance with Putin.”
French, German & Italian Leaders to Visit Kyiv
The leaders of France, Germany and Italy are planning to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv this week as reports showed Russia making gains in the country’s east and Ukrainian officials urgently sought more and better arms from Western nations to hold Russian forces at bay (WSJ/The Wall Street Journal, June 13).
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi were planning to visit the Ukrainian capital on Thursday this week. For all three Western leaders, the trip would be the first to Ukraine since the beginning of Putin’s war.
This week’s planned meeting comes amid a split within NATO about what kind of military aid to send Kyiv. The three leading countries of the European Union (EU) have not been sending large quantities of heavy weapons, while the U.S. and the UK have both pledged to send more advanced rocket-launching systems.
In particular, the German government has come under heavy criticism from Ukraine, Western allies and the centre-right opposition at home for failing to provide more and heavier military support for Kyiv.
In the meantime, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission [the executive arm of the EU] has assured Zelensky on a visit to Kyiv, that Ukraine is already on track to gain “candidate status” soon. This could change the geo-political dynamics considerably and give Putin pause in his horrible and atrocious invasion.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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