Nepal’s Local Elections
Putin’s Aggression in Ukraine
Germany Helps Ukraine
Moldova Next in Line?
After Putin – What?
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal’s Local Elections
Deuba Expects Clean Sweep
Deuba and his Communist cronies expect a clean sweep in their favour in the coming local elections, but it will probably a mixed bag.
In the meantime, the ‘supreme leader of the combined democratic forces of the great Federal Democratic Secular Himalayan Republic’ has underlined the need to make democratic candidates and those standing for change victorious.
After all, only the Nepali Congress (NC) and their partners in the grand coalition – CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist, Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal (JSP-N) and Rashtriya Janamorcha—are genuinely democratic and progressive. They are also all for change – for change’s sake.
They are all in a colossal fight against regressive and anti-national elements in society.
Deuba also stressed the need to strengthen the foundation of democracy from the local levels (RSS/Rashtriya Samachar Samiti, April 28).
Deuba and his Communist comrades, as also the previous ruler of Nepal and supreme leader of yet another Communist party, the CPN-Marxists-Leninists (CPN-UML) – the man who established OLI-garchy in the country – were instrumental in planting and nourishing democracy or loktantra from the bottoms up.
In his appeal, Deuba emphasized the need to defeat anti-constitutional and anti-democratic forces in the election in the course of further consolidating the base of democracy.
Smoke & Mirrors
The fact of the matter is that Deuba’s grand coalition and Oli’s mini coalition are trying to fool all of the people, all of the time.
The whole election process is a grand tamasha. How can political parties that themselves do not practice ‘internal democracy’ teach the people?
In the government and main opposition parties, the whole selection process of candidates has been haphazard and based on connections, favourtism, nepotism and outright discrimination [against lower castes, ethnic minorities, women].
In many cases, family members and close cronies with money of the high and mighty have been given preferential treatment as against capable and popular local leaders.
This is a prime example of “Nepali People’s Democracy’ in action.
Blatant Examples of Misplaced Patronage
- Renu Dahal, daughter of Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, aka ‘Prachande’; for mayor of Bharatpur
- Srijana Singh, wife of NC leader Prakash Man Singh [who ditched Shekhar Koirala at the last minute in the NC leadership election]; for mayor of Kathmandu
- Amarendra Kumar Yadav, son of JSP chairman Upendra Yadav; for mayor of Biratnagar
- CPN-UML’s Keshav Sthapit, mayoral candidate in Kathmandu metropolis [accused of sexual harassment by two prominent women].
All the above, and many others with shady backgrounds are not fit to lead.
Putin’s War in Ukraine
Focus on the Donbas
As the industrial Donbas region of eastern Ukraine becomes a new focal point in Russia’s war, Germany’s leading newsmagazine Der Spiegel [The Mirror] writes that the outcome of the brutal war will depend on a few factors:
- the ferocity of Ukraine’s resistance
- the quality and quantity of more troops sent by Putin
- the quality and quantity of Western arms supplies.
Der Spiegel writes further: “In the villages, sometimes the Russians advance, and sometimes the Ukrainians, but the pattern is generally the same: The side able to muster the most artillery tends to win.”
For Ukrainian journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk: “For many Western politicians and analysts, the Donbas is less an inviolable part of Ukraine and more an asset to be negotiated, to let Putin save face and end the war”(The Atlantic).
But given the terrible Russian atrocities uncovered in Bucha [which amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity, if not choices as “the Donbas which has already paid the heaviest price of the past eight years of conflict [and Russian occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk enclaves/statelets], has yet more pain to come.”
Russia Preparing for a Long War?
Putin’s war could drag on for a long time, according to Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage, writing for Foreign Affairs.
This might very well be Russia’s plan suggests Max Seddon in the Financial Times. “Rather than signaling a push to end the war, the Donbas offensive may also be the prelude to broadening the conflict,” he writes, noting a Russian general’s comment that Russia is “at war with the whole world” and some pundits analysis suggesting Putin sees Russia in a grand conflict with the political West.
West’s Proxy-War Not a Showdown with Autocracy
“At first glance, the war in Ukraine would seem to confirm President Biden’s oft-expressed view that the world today is marked by a contest between democracies and autocracies,” writes Indian-American commentator Fareed Zakaria in his latest piece in the Washington Post. “On closer examination, however, that framework turns out to be neither accurate nor helpful as a guide for US foreign policy.”
Notable democracies and major countries from the Global South have declined to join the West’s campaign to sanction and ostracize Russia, Zakaria points out, including Brazil, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mexico, and South Africa.
They won’t join an ideologically driven fight to uphold democracy, he writes, but they might join one to uphold an international system in which invasions like Russia’s are prevented, regardless of ideas about the best form of government.
That’s a better lens through which to view this war, but if the US embraces it, Washington will need to “get better at practicing what it preaches.”
Russia’s War is Affecting Other Great Powers
India
The import of China’s studied ‘neutrality’ on Russia has been widely debated, but at Foreign Affairs, Shashi Tharoor argues that India’s stance has major ramifications, too.
India has a strong Cold War history of refusing to align with major blocs [non-alignment], but by adamantly rejecting the West’s economic and political campaign against Russia, Tharoor reasons, India risks alienating Western powers.
Above all, it can be seen as accepting a risky precedent about borders [not being sacrosanct] and the use of force [in changing the status quo], given its long running conflict with Pakistan in Kashmir and its disputed Himalayan borders with China [in Ladakh, Uttarkhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh].
Japan
For Japan, Takako Hikotani, also writing for Foreign Affairs, the Ukraine war has shown the previous Japanese government was “naïve” to court Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Japanese public opinion is now in favour of welcoming refugees and after decades of post-1945 pacifism, there is now “a rare philosophical debate within Japan about what countries should fight for.”
Putin’s Fall, a Possibility?
Some analysts, including Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, see the war in Ukraine as posing a risk to Putin’s grip on power: “Increasingly visible signs of elite dissatisfaction” make his ouster more likely.
The MIT political economist Daron Acemoglu suggests in Meduza [banned in Russia] that the war could delegitimize Putin in the eyes of both Russia’s public and elites.
Germany Helps Ukraine with Heavy Weapons
After weeks of criticism and pressure, Chancellor Olaf Scholz changed course, deciding to send heavy weapons to Ukraine. Ahead of a meeting of NATO-defence ministers at Ramstein Air Base [in Germany], hosted by the U.S., the German Defence Gepard tanks designed specifically to shoot down aircraft (DW/ Deutsche Welle, April 26).
Scholz had grown increasingly defensive as he fended off criticism – some from his own coalition partners, the Greens and the Liberals – for his reluctance to send heavy weaponry to help Ukraine fight off the Russian invasion.
Scholz claimed that the German military could not supply more weapons directly without compromising the country’s own security. Instead, Germany agreed to a swap deal with Slovenia, whereby the small NATO member in the Balkans would send its own T-72 tanks to Ukraine, while Germany would send its Marder vehicles to Slovenia in the coming months.
At the same time, money would be provided to Germany’s arms in 2014
Scholz also had other explanations for his restrained policy: from fears of escalating the war to maintaining agreements among NATO partners.
Some of Scholz’s own coalition partners have accused him of failing to communicate and damaging Germany’s international reputation.
However, Scholz and Germany itself have been treated unfairly in the media.
Germany has been one of Ukraine’s biggest financial donors since Russia’s annexation of Crimea [in contrast to the U.S. and UK] in 2014, has taken in more Ukrainian refugees than any country except Ukraine’s immediate neighbours, and has made major foreign/defence policy shifts in response to Russia’s aggression.
German-Russian Relations & Political Fallout
The shadow of Germany’s past economic ties with Russia over the last two decades hangs over the current government’s actions.
This is especially true of Scholz’s own party, the Social Democrats (SPD). Three SPD giants – former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Federal President [and former foreign minister] Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and former party president and Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel – have each dealt with the current war in very different ways.
President Steinmeier was apparently ‘snubbed’ by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy three weeks ago, and has been criticized for his role in shaping Germany’s Russia policy under former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration.
The other prong of criticism against Germany is its ‘overwhelming’ dependence on Russian oil and gas. Here again, though Scholz’s administration is working to wean the country off, the process is not happening quickly enough for many – it should have happened day before yesterday!
Moldova Next in Line for Putin’s Aggression?
There is a real possibility that the violence from Ukraine may be spilling into Moldova.
This former Soviet state was threatened last week by a Russian general who said it could be next.
The Moscow-backed breakaway Transnistria region of the country reported an attack on a military unit, hours after a pair of antennas broadcasting Russian radio were blown up.
Ukraine authorities warned the Kremlin could be engaging in new false-flag actions to justify expanding its war. Moldovan President Maia Sandu blamed the attacks on actors in the pro-Kremlin region and said her government would resist “attempts to drag Moldova into actions that may endanger peace” (Bloomberg, April 27),
[A false-flag action is a covert operation orchestrated by a foreign government {in this case Russian on another territory {Transnistria/Moldova}.
The operation is designed to appear as if it were carried out by another group or country {people/government of Moldova or Ukraine} and is generally used to set a pre-context or excuse for intervention/war. The tactic originated in 17th century naval warfare.]
Moldova is a very small country sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine and completely landlocked. It is neither a member of the EU or NATO.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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