Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Kamal Thapa’s Antics
Chairman of the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party – Nepal (RPP-N) Kamal Thapa has indicated that his party will coordinate with the main opposition CPN-UML for the local level election scheduled for May 13 (My Republica, April 9).
Strangely, Thapa wants to ally himself with a Communist party, whose leaders and cadres are atheists and against religious beliefs. It just shows that Thapa has not only lost his ideological bearings, but also his principles.
Previously, Thapa had been piously advocating for monarchy and a Hindu state. After accusing former King Gyanendra of undue interference in his defeat as party president, he is now vehemently against the agenda of ‘constitutional monarchy’. This illustrates that he is only motivated by personal, selfish interests and not national ones.
Whatever his party manifesto, he and his party can be written off as a prevailing political force in the national scene. He will be play-ball for K.P. Sharma Oli.
Nepal Heading for Economic Crisis?
It is not clear what the real situation regarding Nepal’s financial and economic situation is, as the government is not very transparent.
The finance minister has superciliously indicated that Nepal’s situation cannot be compared to that of Sri Lanka [see below], although we are definitely living beyond our means, and our trade deficit is in a hopeless situation.
The suspension of the governor of the central bank (Nepal Rashtriya Bank) is also highly suspicious. The government may get into trouble with the IMF because of the shady move by the government.
The upcoming elections at three levels will also be a great strain on the state exchequer.
The only hopes are the tourism sector and the possible increase in the remittance regime.
Pakistan’s Political Crisis
Embattled PM Imran Khan Ousted in No-Confidence Vote
Pakistan’s political opposition ousted the country’s embattled prime minister in a no-confidence vote early Sunday, which they won after several of Imran Khan’s allies and a key coalition partner deserted him.
The combined opposition that spans the whole political spectrum from the left to the radically religious, will form the new government, with the head of one of the largest parties, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N), Shahbaz Sharif (younger brother of Nawaz, presently recuperating in London) taking over as prime minister.
This was the first time in Pakistan’s history that a no-confidence vote has succeeded in ousting a prime minister – the fulfilment of a constitutional process that was far from guaranteed after Khan’s manifold attempts to derail the vote. ‘Captain Sahib’ that was really not cricket!
Khan’s options are limited. He has called on his supporters to stage rallies nationwide to try to keep the momentum of street protests as a way to pressure parliament to hold early elections.
Earlier Developments
Last week on Sunday, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ruling party blocked a no-confidence vote which he was widely expected to lose.
His government then dissolved parliament and called a snap election.
Furious opposition members then launched an appeal to the Supreme Court to decide the legality of the blocked vote.
The Supreme Court said in a ruling late on Thursday last week that the parliamentary vote should go ahead.
Harping on his glorious days as Pakistan’s cricket captain, Khan tweeted: “My message to the nation is that I have always fought for Pakistan and will continue to fight till the last ball” (BBC, April 8).
The united opposition, buoyed by the unanimous verdict, has declared it a win for Pakistan’s democracy, even though there have been rumours that they had quiet support from the country’s powerful military, which since last year has had a falling out with Khan.
Sri Lanka’s Economic, Political & Medical Crisis
Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic crisis since independence and has endured months of shortages of fuel and other essentials.
The heavily indebted country has little foreign exchange left to pay for imports, meaning fuel, power, food and, increasingly, medicines are in short supply (Reuters, April 8).
The build-up of aggregate demand, domestic supply disruptions, the plunge of the local currency and high prices of commodities globally could keep up the pressure on inflation, according to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL).
The CBSL governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe added: “Things are challenging and we need to take decisive action. Things will get worse before they get better, but we need to apply the breaks to this vehicle before it crashes.”
Sri Lanka will have to try for a debt moratorium. It will have to suspend debt repayment for some time and get bilateral and multilateral support to manage its balance of payments.
Protests over the economic downturn have spread nationwide and expanded to criticism of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his politically powerful family.
Rajapaksa has resisted demands to step down, even after members of his own coalition joined them last week, with governing party lawmakers calling for the appointment of an interim government to avoid possible violence.
The economic crisis has been topped by a political one. With no functioning cabinet including crucial finance and health, Parliament has failed to reach a consensus in three days of debate on how to deal with the crisis.
Sri Lanka’s national medical association has warned that hospitals will be unable to provide even emergency services in the coming weeks because of critical shortages of drugs and medical equipment caused by the country’s economic crisis, leading to a catastrophic number of deaths if medical supplies are not replenished.
Russo-Ukraine War
Russia itself Terminates Membership in UN Human Rights Council
After the UN General Assembly (UNGA) voted with a two-thirds majority to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council based in Geneva, Russia itself decided to terminate its own membership.
The Russian foreign ministry considered the UNGA-resolution “unlawful and politically motivated” (Xinhua).
Russia has committed egregious aggression against a sovereign UN member state [also a founding member] and has been condemned by the vast majority of the members. Therefore, it is not ‘unlawful’ by any stretch of the imagination. Of course, it was ‘politically motivated, and what did the ‘Kremlin elite’ expect – praise? Russia has cut off the limb on which it was propped up and declared itself a pariah in the international community.
What is indeed enigmatic is that in such a clear-cut case(s) of human rights abuses in Ukraine amounting to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, all the members of SAARC chose to abstain in the crucial vote. In the case of India, which is dependent on Russia for arms, the abstaining vote can be explained away, but it was disgraceful for Nepal and Bhutan, which had previously voted to condemn Russia for the widespread atrocities.
In such cases of unprovoked atrocities, it is not ethical to remain “neutral” or “non-aligned”. There is [or should be] a moral dimension to any country’s foreign policy. What were the mandarins in the foreign ministry thinking? And the so-called ‘think tank’ “Institute of Foreign Affairs” that advises the ministry, was not thinking at all!
For Nepal, it was not politically/diplomatically wise. Its abstention could have repercussions on any future attempt at membership in the Council, and also for its participation in UN Peace Keeping Operations. It should not have bowed to Indian pressure!
Tactics & Strategy of Putin’s Aggressive War
Russian President Vladimir Putin insists euphemistically on calling his aggressive war against much smaller Ukraine a “special military operation”, but to all intents and purposes, he has bitten off much more than he can chew!
His war of choice will have many unintended consequences. It has turned into a world-historical event.
- It marks the final act of the post-Cold War period.
Some scholars argue that the Cold War had not even ended.
- It is the start of a new era, the outlines of which are still unknown.
- The SMO [or ‘special military operation’] can evolve into a spectrum of various possible outcomes, ranging from
– a volatile new Cold War, or
– a hot war involving the United States, Russia and China;
– to a frozen conflict in Ukraine,
– to a post-Putin settlement in which Russia becomes part of a revised European security architecture.
This is uncharted territory for policy planners, decision-makers, media pundits and academic experts alike.
The West is levelling unprecedented sanctions against Russia in record time, but it has not been nearly enough to stop the Russian war machine.
With Putin rattling his nuclear sabres, there is the real potential for a descent into nuclear war – and even atomic Armageddon!
This imperialistic war has been long in the making – starting 2008 with the invasion of Georgia, and ‘Czar’ Vlad I doesn’t seem to be able to accept defeat.
Like Germany’s Adolf Hitler, Putin is attempting an Anschluss. The Great Russian Liberation of Ukraine continues.
But given the bravery and determination of the Ukrainians, the vile war crimes of Russian soldiers – individually, collectively and at the leadership level; and the terrible repercussions of a possible Putin/Russian victory, it is very difficult to imagine how Putin should be allowed to win – from any angle!
How Does/Can/Should the War End?
Experts at the Atlantic Council have speculated on the possibility – not probability – of how this war could conclude in four scenarios and the alternative geopolitical futures that might result. In turn, this would transform international relations in the following years.
It is vitally important to stress that these four scenarios have been developed not to predict the future but in an intensive thought process to help decision-makers imagine what could happen next and devise ways and means to prevent the worst case. After all, “the only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered” (Atlantic Council: Matthew Burrows/Robert A. Manning, April 6).
Four Scenarios: Alternative Geopolitical Outcomes
- A Frozen Conflict Russia’s war effort in Ukraine could drag on for more than a year.
The civilian death toll continues to rise.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to hold ‘Fortress Kyiv’, even with his life in persistent danger from the Russian assassination attempt, especially from murderous Chechens.
However, it is difficult to imagine how the world will continue to tolerate the horrible Russian death and destruction.
- A Double Cold War Emerges
Peace talks have continued but have been deadlocked for several months.
The Ukrainians had held out hope that new Western military supplies would tip the balance of the conflict in their favour.
However, it becomes clear that neither side can truly win the war – it has reached a stalemate.
- A Nuclear Apocalypse
Because Vlad I has reached [an imaginary] cul-de-sac, he opts for the (small) nuclear option.
Despite valiant, grassroots Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Russia’s invasion, the number of the country’s cities had been reduced to rubble from far off bombardments.
In such circumstances, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to negotiate with Moscow.
- “A Brave New World”
In this [fictional] case also, Russia has launched a tactical nuclear missile inside Ukraine, but just opposite the US/NATO safe haven in Poland that is supplying training and military equipment to the Ukrainian resistance.
The Western powers are compelled to respond with unimaginable consequences for all concerned.
These scenarios are well and good, but in reality, they do not take into consideration, Vlad I’s psychological make-up. He is not only a megalomaniac, but also a kleptomaniac with intense fear for his ill-gotten gains – just like his inner circle of oligarchs, ministers and generals. They – individually and collectively – are all cowards and bullies [in contrast to Zelenskyy] – scared sh-less and hoping against hope that the West will buy their nuclear blackmail. They are feverishly looking for ways and means to retreat from what they have unwittingly unleashed.
As the great bard wrote:
“Cowards die many times before their deaths;
The valiant never taste of death but once.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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