Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Himalayan Hotbed of Vampires
After the last parliamentary elections, the people of Nepal had earnestly hoped that the country would be transformed into a land of milk and honey. “Loktantra” was writ large, self-rule by the people, of the people for the people, i.e. ‘people’s democracy’ in theory and practice.
This was a hot bubble that has burst into our faces. The so-called leaders have not been able to deliver. They have become too old and jaded – mangy street dogs that cannot learn any new tricks – every single one of them from the old school.
Many of us are so frustrated that we consider them not only crooks, but blood-sucking vampires. It is no longer any use debating the finer points of democracy, because these political crooks are only interested in wheeling-and-dealing and scheming to remain in power, or attain power and suck the country and its people bone-dry. There is not an iota of redeeming grace.
More than two years of the planetary pandemic has resulted in apathy in the people. The political institutions of the country have fallen into disrepair. Civil society is non-functioning. There are some leaders from the smaller, non-establishment parties trying to stir the embers, but not even a small fire, let alone a roaring one, has been able to gather force. Public debate is non-existent.
Thus, the (mini)controversy over the holding of local and parliamentary elections has not been able to rouse the public interest, restricted as it is to some sections of the main political parties, their hangers-on and the public media. It has not even caught the imagination of social media personalities.
At the same time, it is generally accepted that holding local elections on time is a must from every point of view. Having a local government in place is essential for the supply of goods and services at the grassroots. Good governance starts here – from the bottom up and not the other way around, which in any case has been a complete failure due to the prevalence of blood-sucking vampires!
Any hope for improvement in the body politic and Nepalese society can also only start from the bottom up. The upcoming local elections could, therefore, have a signal effect.
Corruption Worsens in South Asia
Last week, Transparency International released its latest global corruption rankings in which South Asia as a whole made a very poor showing.
The index TI uses reflect the perceptions of an international network of experts and business leaders about corruption in the public sector.
Five South Asian countries are in the bottom half of the list: Sri Lanka (102), Nepal (117), Pakistan (140), Bangladesh (147), and Afghanistan (174).
According to TI’s analysis, the countries with the worst corruption scores in the 2021 index also tend to experience significant democratic regression. But India, which had taken a major nosedive in global democracy rankings, fared relatively well in the corruption index (85).
Meanwhile, Pakistan dropped the farthest of any country in the region: 16 places from the 2020 rankings. This isn’t good news for Islamabad, where the ruling party of PM Imran Khan, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) identifies combating corruption as its top priority (Foreign Policy, Jan. 27).
Ukraine & India’s Daunting Choice(s)
As the entire world waits with bated breath for a possible Russian invasion of its much smaller and weaker neighbour Ukraine, India continues to maintain a cautious silence. The conflict has placed New Delhi – which considers itself an up and coming world power — in a most difficult position.
India no way wants to disturb its long-standing relations with Russia by trying to criticize it in any way or even to advise against attack. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a major disaster for its strategic interests. Currently, it is conveniently sitting on the fence worldwide.
The crisis undoubtedly puts New Delhi under intense pressure from Washington to join the coalition of countries opposing Moscow’s military mobilization and acute threat: “The more things escalate, the more challenges India will face as it tries to balance relations with both countries” (Michael Kugelman in Foreign Policy/South Asia Brief, Jan. 27).
India’s close friendship with Russia [dating back to the Soviet Union] started in the early years of the Cold War after WW II. From those very early days, shortly after independence, the Indian establishment has always considered Moscow a time-tested and reliable partner.
Thus, India was completely silent when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014. It also abstained from a United Nations resolution upholding Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
This time around also, New Delhi will do everything not to push back against Moscow – and not just out of nostalgia. Russia is a leading military supplier to India, which risked U.S. sanctions by purchasing the Russian S-400 missile defence system [like Turkey] that began arriving last month.
To New Delhi, Moscow also makes a major contribution to a multipolar world order with power dispersed beyond Washington and Beijing. This makes India very likely to stay quiet about Russia’s actions in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Like most countries, India will not call out the excesses of other governments if doing so could damage its own national interests. Its reaction to last year’s brutal putsch in neighbouring Myanmar was very muted, seeking to avoid jeopardizing its relations with a military regime that cooperates with India on security and infrastructure projects. New Delhi recently introduced a new plan for engagement with the junta, which it doesn’t want to get any closer to Beijing.
Yet another invasion of Ukraine would deliver a major blow to Indian interests. The resulting Western sanctions would make Moscow more reliant on economic assistance from Beijing – ultimately undermining the multipolarity supported by New Delhi. Fresh sanctions would also present obstacles for India’s defence trade with Russia.
In another development, the crisis in Ukraine could distract the United States from its focus on countering Chinese power. Meanwhile, according to analysts, Beijing could flex its muscles in the South China Sea or along the Sino-Indian border – outcomes that would deliver fresh blows to New Delhi’s interests. These possibilities highlight how the Russia factor could constrain U.S.-India relations. It would also be the end of the era where India can have its cake and eat it too!
A full-scale, extended war in Ukraine would be the worst-case scenario for India and would make its role as a silent bystander completely untenable. But even a limited Russian ‘incursion’ would most probably result in a sanctioned Moscow, a strengthened Beijing, and a harassed Washington – all catastrophic for India’s interests. It will not have the guts for urging Russia to use restraint [China only has this capacity, and that too only in private!].
All outcomes look terribly bleak for India, which finds itself in a lose-lose situation.
War in Ukraine Unlikely
According to the very perspicacious Russian journalist Yulia Latynina writing an opinion piece in The New York Times (Jan. 29-30), war is unlikely to break out in Ukraine, although the media moguls in Russia’s vast propaganda machine predict a quick and certain victory “in 48 hours”. Ms. Latynina, who has been closely followed to relinquishing Vladimir Putin’s political career for more than two decades, is more circumspect.
She points out that “outright conflict” as opposed to “sudden swoops, covert operations or hybrid warfare” is not really Putin’s style. The troop buildup in November 2021 was an attempt to force the West to relinquish any claims over Ukraine [which he considers an integral part of the Russian motherland].
Had the West shown weakness and given in, it would have been a great PR victory for Putin at a minimal cost.
Unfortunately for Putin [and fortunately for Ukraine], the West exposed his bluff. The United States and NATO took a markedly sharper tone than previously, and have, more importantly, sent military hardware to Ukraine and across Eastern Europe and put 8,500 troops on standby. The message was loud and clear: If Russia will not de-escalate, then neither will the West!
For all intents and purposes, Putin has trapped himself, instead of trapping the United States and NATO. He is now caught between a devastating armed conflict [for himself and Russia] and a humiliating retreat. The problem he faces is that his room for maneuver is dwindling rapidly to nothing.
He played for high stakes and risked enormously. He is like a cornered wild animal and can, therefore, attack and risk certain defeat. Or he could pull back and have nothing to show for his brinkmanship. Evidently, it has been such a lonely and personal [probably a one-man show] decision-making process. And his gamble has indeed failed.
The West could devise a face-saving move for Putin. Here, Germany has played a cautious role and could ease the process.
Reasons for Russia’s Possible Retreat
Ms. Latynina is convinced that Putin will now pull back from an invasion, having observed his “instinctive cautiousness” at close quarters for two decades.
- Putin has a record of withdrawing at the first sign of real armed conflict, like in Syria, the Armenia-Azerbaijan confrontation and Kazakhstan.
He got away with the defeat of Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 while the world was caught unawares and Russia could complete its designs without the threat of armed international opposition.
The situation now is completely different.
- There are no domestic reasons for pursuing war – there is no major internal unrest and presidential elections are two years away: “Putin doesn’t require an expansionist escapade to either shore up his rule or distract the population from its troubles.”
- The main reason is that considering all the variables and imponderables, Russia would not be assured of victory. And extremely cautious as he is, “Putin will never start a war he’s likely to lose.” For Putin, discretion would be the better part of valour!
In any case, Ukraine is not going to be welcomed into NATO any time soon – this could be Putin’s exit strategy.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
Login to add a comment