Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal’s National Democratic Party Elects New Chairman: New Hope for a Battered Nation?
Lingden to the Fore
With the election of Rajendra Prasad Lingden as Chairman and new office-bearers in the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party at their recent convention, there is now fresh hope in the country.
It is eye-opening that in his first statement, Lingden said that they cannot afford to make the party as dull and inactive as it has in the past. He wants to lead the party in a different way (my Republica, Dec. 5).
These are brave words, but action counts more than words. We have to wait and see what he undertakes and how far he can take the party with him after a substantial period of hibernation.
He expressed his commitment to not letting the party members down, who after all have voted for change. But as the new German chancellor has said, it is not the party members that count, but the millions of fellow countrymen who expect resolute action [see below].
Lingden did express a modest tone when he said that it was unnecessary to celebrate his win in the streets, to be honoured with garlands and ‘khadas’ [ceremonial scarves], and to shout slogans. After all, it was merely an internal election of the party in its convention, implying that the main work lies ahead.
But, at least it is the beginning.
Sour Grapes for Kamal Thapa
The exit of former chairman Kamal Thapa had unwelcome aftermath.
Thapa accused ‘Nirmal Niwas’ [the private residence of former King HM Gyanendra] and by inference the King himself of interference in the election proceedings, and therefore, directly of his loss to Lingden.
Be that as it may, but many in the rank and file and also the other two co-chairmen, PashupatiShumsher JB Rana and Lohini were at odds with Thapa’s leadership style [to put it mildly] and his utter failure to push forward the party’s principal agenda.
RPP’s Prospects
Given the utter disarray of the political parties in the governing coalition under the incompetent Sher Bahadur Deuba and the authoritarian tendencies of the main opposition CPN-UML under the megalomaniac K.P. Sharma Oli, the prospects of the RPP are not bad.
It has to adopt people-oriented policies and could open exploratory cooperation talks with the popular Sajha Party of the well-educated and professional Rabindra Mishra.
An electoral alliance between the RPP and the Sajha Party could pose a major challenge to the old, established parties. After all, Mishra lost to Nepali Congress leader Prakash Man Singh from Kathmandu-1 by a margin of only 818 votes!
Such an electoral alliance could challenge the main leaders of the other parties in their constituencies.
The testing of such an alliance could be inaugurated in a joint street demonstration, to just see which way the wind blows and explore ways and means to banish the regressive parties of the current political dispensation to the dustbin of history.
The Persistent Russo-Indian Relationship
Although Russia cultivates relations with all the countries of South Asia and has permanent diplomatic missions in most, its relations with India are of particular importance. It dates back to the time of the Cold War with the Soviet Union as the other superpower and stood by India through thick and thin. This particular “all-weather” partnership is a hallmark of global diplomacy.
India-US Ties Part of the Equation
Growing US-Indian ties have been an irritant in the Russo-Indian relationship, more so in the past decade. Narendra Modi and Donald Trump got on famously together.
As Moscow’s own relations with Washington steadily deteriorated, India’s started to bloom.
The highpoint was reached when India joined the Quad, an ‘informal’ alliance involving the U.S., Japan and Australia, purporting to be a non-military alliance and not aimed at a specific country [but, of course, it is primarily directed at China in a policy of containment].
Even for Russia – the great power of the Eurasian landmass and a major naval power of the Asia-Pacific [‘Indo-Pacific’ is too narrow] – the quadrilateral alliance can be perceived as a threat.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director at the Wilson Center think-tank in Washington, says the new geopolitical realities pose a “potential threat to the India-Russia relationship” (BBC, Dec. 6).
He adds that in this context, Putin’s visit is important to uphold the special relationship, which is already on shaky ground. For Russia, the objective is “to reinforce the importance of Moscow’s relations with New Delhi, even as the geopolitical signposts suggest otherwise.”For both Moscow and New Delhi it is a delicate balancing act, considering their ties to Beijing [ close for the former and ‘disturbed’ for the latter ].
Crucial Russian Arms Deal
The showpiece of Putin’s visit was the delivery of the Russia-made S-400missile defence system to India. It is one of the most sophisticated surface-to-air defence systems in the world. It has a range of 400 km and can shoot down up to 80 targets simultaneously, aiming two missiles at each one (BBC).
The system gives India crucial strategic deterrence against its antagonists, China and Pakistan, and that is the reason why it went ahead with the order despite U.S. reservations and threats of US sanctions.
The decision to buy the S-400 upholds India’s practice of strategic autonomy and India’s large defence budget also gives it the strategic advantage. India is after all the world’s second-largest arms importer, according to defence think tank SIPRI and Moscow continue to be India’s largest arms supplier – a mutual advantageous transactional relationship.
The China Factor
Russia has been compelled to forge closer ties with China to secure its economic and geopolitical interests in Asia as the U.S. and the West seek to [again] dominate the region.
China’s deteriorating ties with the US also appear to have pushed Beijing and Moscow closer. The matter is further complicated by tense Sino-Indian relations since last year’s deadly clash in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley.
China’s Power & Influence in Asia Falls, U.S. Regains Authority
In the second year of the planetary pandemic, China’s power and influence in Asia receded as the country has turned more inward. That the U.S. has expanded in the region through better diplomacy, according to the prestigious Sydney-based Lowy Institute (Bloomberg, Dec. 5). This is in stark contrast to that of the unruly Trump administration.
China’s measure of power fell as the country wrestled with structural weaknesses in its demographics and financial system and became more isolationist, according to the research institute in its “Asia Power Index for 2021”, which ranks 26 nations and territories. Understandingly, conflict-wracked Afghanistan and Yemen were not included, but strangely Bhutan, the Maldives and the Central Asian Republics are also missing! The bloody military dictatorship of Myanmar lies fifth from the bottom.
The index measures power using 131 indicators including economic clout, defence capability, cultural and diplomatic influence, and projected future resources – and for the first time vaccine diplomacy.
Comparatively, the U.S. gained more influence in Asia this year due to the new administration’s brokering better diplomatic relationships and a speedy recovery from the pandemic with the help of vaccinations.
“There’s been a bit of a flip in assessments of U.S.’ and China’s future prospects across a range of measures – military, economic and demographic,” according to the think tank, “And that suggests that the U.S. will remain or has the ability to remain competitive.”
The top 10 countries for overall power in the Asia-Pacific region are the U.S., China, Japan, India, Russia, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand.
Nepal is twenty-fifth on the list – second-last and just before Papua New Guinea! Cambodia and Laos with far lesser populations and less sophisticated soft-power are higher on the list. This is just another indication that our so-called leaders are a bunch of nincompoops.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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