Commentary
By P.R. Pradhan
After being failed to topple down the K.P.Sharma Oli led government, all the political parties have started to concentrate on the early elections. Now, the question is whether to go for elections under the Oli led government or to form an election government led by NC by ousting Oli!
Deuba’s remarks:
Nepali congress’ senior leaders Ramchandra Poudel and Krishna Shitaula were continuously putting pressure on their president Sher Bahadur Deuba to make an effort to form a coalition government under the party. Deuba had shown no interests in the formation of a coalition government. From the beginning, Deuba was insisting on preparation for the election. When the pressure was mounted, Deuba was compelled to accept the party decision to take an initiative to form a coalition government under the NC leadership. Later, he also called a meeting of the opposition parties and expressed the view of constituting an election government participated by the Maoist Center and Janata Samajbadi Party. Maoist Center’s chairman Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda promptly accepted Deuba’s proposal, however, JSP chairman Mahanta Thakur denied giving an alternative government saying that the party’s priority is to address the Tarai demands.
As Prime Minister K.P. Oli has assured the JSP leaders for responding to the party’s demands as soon as possible, JSP has stood against a coalition government aimed at toppling down the present government.
Deuba’s analysis:
NC president Deuba has analysed that sooner or later, the present government is going to collapse. Along with the presentation of the government policy and programmes, the Oli led government is going to collapse. Deuba has analysed that neither the government policy and programmes will be endorsed by the House nor the government budget for the new fiscal year will be passed from the parliament. After the government fails to endorse the government policy and programmes, Oli should resign and efforts for an alternative government will be started. Even if a section in JSP will take Oli’s side, there will be a rare chance for the formation of an alternative government. If failed to constitute an alternative government, Oli will get a chance to dissolve the parliament and call an early election under his government.
JSP as kingmaker:
There are 36 MPs in JSP. If JSP will side with NC and Maoist Center, the opposition parties will be able to give an alternative government. If JSP will be divided on the issue of formation of an alternative government, above 17 MPs will take side with Thakur, whereas, rest of the MPs may take side with Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai who are viewing for the formation of an alternative government. However, only 17 JSP MPs are not enough to manage the necessary majority to form an alternative government. There is the need to manage 138 votes to form a government. NC holds the strength of 63 MPs, whereas, Maoist Center holds only 49 MPs after dismissing five MPs including Ram Bahadur Thapa who are the minister in the Oli led government.
For Oli also, given intensified intra-party dispute in the UML, it is not easy to manage 138 votes. There is a strong possibility of floor-crossing from the UML MPs in the Madhav Nepal faction.
Oli’s mood:
Prime Minister and UML chairman K.P. Sharma Oli has also analysed that it is not easy to save his government further. He believes, sooner or later, a fresh mandate is obvious.
Presently too, Oli is unable to give business to the Parliament due to the fear of failure of the government proposal from the parliament. Oli, is, therefore, seeking another option to dissolve the parliament and hold the election by the present government.
Login to add a comment