By Our Reporter
With President Bidya Devi Bhandari summoning the winter session of the House of Representatives (HoR) from March 7, the battle of the two rival factions of the ruling Nepal Communist Party is all set to enter the House of Representatives from the streets.
Earlier, the two factions were busy showing their strength in the streets from December 20 last year after Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli dissolved the House even though the Constitution does not give him such rights. Although PM Oli and his men are still exhibiting their strength in the streets, the Dahal-Nepal faction is busy developing strategies to oust Oli from both the party and prime ministerial berth.
The five-member Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court unanimously reinstated the House 66 days after it was dissolved clearly telling that the Prime Minister had breached Constitution while dissolving the House. Had it been elsewhere in the world, the Prime Minister should have stepped down on the moral ground.
However, in Nepal Prime Minister Oli and the men in his coteries are openly challenging the rival factions that they should prove their mettle by ousting him, and the people have been compelled to be mere spectators of the shameless PM and leaders who had not felt an iota of shame even after the Supreme Court gave a verdict that they had violated the constitution. Instead, PM Oli has been applying every measure to stick in power.
While PM Oli and his men are preparing to foil every move of the rival faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Nepal, the latter has also prepared well to tackle each move of the Prime Minister.
Now when the House session begins, the Dahal-Nepal faction is likely to ask the PM to step down first. And if he does not resign, they will try to remove him from the leader of the parliamentary party. But removing him from the parliamentary party will not be easy as both PM Oli and deputy leader Subas Nembang will not call the meeting. Again, PM Oli is likely to buy lawmakers to support him. The third option will be the registration of the no-confidence motion. However, the obscure role of Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba will determine the fate of the no-confidence motion because Deuba has been backing PM Oli.
In a parliamentary system, the opposition party should try to pull down the government, but Deuba has been indirectly supporting every move of the government because he has been enjoying power-sharing in key appointments. Moreover, PM Oli did not call back Deuba’s mother-in-law Pratibha Rana, Nepal’s envoy to Japan while he called back all other envoys. As such, there is no guarantee Deuba will back the no-confidence motion of the Dahal-Nepal faction. The situation is such that any of the NCP faction cannot form a government without receiving NC’s support.
The 275-member lower house winter session was due to begin before January 2 as per the Constitution, which, however, did not happen as Prime Minister Oli dissolved the House on December 20 last year.
The Supreme Court (SC), in its verdict on February 23, overturned the dissolution move and ordered the government to call the House session within 13 days from the verdict date.
The interval between the two sessions cannot exceed six months. The budget session of the House was prorogued on July 2 last year.
NC indecisive on government formation
The Nepali Congress which has been criticised for failing to play the role of a constructive of the opposition party has now shown its utter indifference to the misconduct of the government. When a faction within the ruling Nepal Communist Party has thrown its full strength to overthrow Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, Nepali Congress has not yet decided whether it supports Oli or not. NC president Deuba, who is accused of siding with Oli while the latter decided to dissolve the House, is not willing to go against Oli while almost all other leaders, right from the day of House dissolution, have been stressing a decisive movement to oust Oli.
What Deuba has been arguing is that when the NCP is legally united, the NC could not decide to support any of the faction. But senior leader Ram Chandra Paudel, and other leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Krishna Sitaula want that NC should support the attempt of the Dahal-Nepal faction.
Now when both factions of NCP have offered the post of Prime Minister to NC, it has not yet decided its role in the formation of the new government.
Will Baburam Bhattarai become the next PM?
With a reinstatement of the House of Representatives, a section of media in Nepal and the Indian media have started portraying Dr Baburam Bhattarai as the next prime minister of Nepal. It is natural for the Indian media to make such a projection as Bhattarai since long has been en believed to be an agent of India. But it is not known why Nepali media have also given space to such news as they know well that Dr Bhattarai who reached the parliament in NC support lack the strength to become the new PM.
He was the only Naya Shakti Party leader to be elected in the Lower House as NC supported his candidacy in Gorkha. Later, he merged his party with Upendra Yadav’s Sanghiya Samjabadi Party which is now unified as Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal having 34 seats in the House. It is now the third-largest party and if the ruling Nepal Communist Party gets formally split, it will be the fourth party in House.
As such, chances are very slim for Bhattarai to become PM. If both factions of NCP fails to form the government on their own, the new government will probably be led by NC. Yes, India will try its best to make Bhattarai new PM and the Dahal-Nepal faction may also be ready to accept him as new PM in the condition of overthrowing Oli, but they need NC’s support for that which is not possible even though Bhattarai was virtually elected by NC votes in the House.
Moreover, Bhattarai himself has not shown his interest to lead the government. He had returned to Nepal only on Tuesday after receiving treatment in India. He had not openly said he would lead the new government, but he had told the India media that Nepal should focus on improving its relations with India, not with China.
Who is the next PM?
Even after the Supreme Court reinstated the House of Representatives last Tuesday, it is not yet clear who the next Prime Minister will be.
The House of Representatives which will begin from Sunday will decide the fate of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. It will not be easy for him to face the House which he dissolved earlier. He is likely to face a no-confidence motion from within Nepal Communist Party.
However, it is the Nepali Congress that will have the decisive role to save or fail the present Oli-led government. If NC remains neutral, Oli will be remaining in power. But NC will not miss a chance to lead the government which has already been offered by both the warring factions of the ruling Nepal Communist Party. Yet it is not sure towards which factions, the NC will tilt because party president Sher Bahadur Deuba is willing to support PM Oli while others want to support the Dahal-Nepal faction.
By the time this news story was filed, one from among PM Oli, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Sher Bahadur Deuba are likely to become new PM in the next one month.
If Oli manages to show a majority of NCP lawmakers with him, and if NC does not back the no-confidence motion, Oli is likely to continue his job as PM. But if a no-confidence motion is registered and if he fails to garner a majority, he has to step down. However, if he envisages such a situation, he may resign before facing the no-confidence motion as he did in 2016. After stepping down, he will offer his support to Deuba, but other NC leaders will prevent Deuba to become PM in Oli’s support.
If the rival faction of the NCP ousts Oli from the Parliamentary party and if 20 or more lawmakers who are now with Oli, change their camp switching to Dahal-Nepal camp, Madhav Kumar Nepal will become the new PM in the support of the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal. However, the Dahal-Nepal faction should have at least 110 NCP lawmakers with them to happen this. Pushpa Kamal Dahal has already announced that he would not become the PM, and the Tarai-based party which has 32 sitting members is soft towards Dahal. But if Nepal fails to garner 138 votes in the 275-member House of Representatives, he will also offer NC to lead the government. And Sher Bahadur Deuba will easily become the new PM if he accepts the offer of any of the two factions in NCP. But NC leaders will try their best to prevent Deuba from becoming the new PM because they know well that they will not be able to defeat him as the party president in the August general convention. They have already proposed Prakash Man Singh’s name as the new PM. But as Deuba is both the party president and leader of the parliamentary party, no one can prevent him from becoming the new PM. Astrologers have already predicted that he would become the PM seven times and he will be ascending in power for the fifth time by coming April. However, India could also play a role in electing the new PM. Pushpa Kamal Dahal hinted at this statement that an ‘India comfortable’ government will be formed. But his statement drew flak.
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