By Our Reporter
After the dissolution of the House of Representatives and announcement of fresh elections for April 30 and May 10, Nepali society has been divided into the two camps — one supporting the dissolution and another opposing this.
While a faction of Nepal Communist Party led by Prime Minister Oli and his men trying their best to justify the dissolution, the rival faction of the party led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal, other parties, civil society and people, in general, are opposing the dissolution terming it unconstitutional.
Of course, the constitution has not mentioned any particular Article to dissolve the parliament by the PM, however, PM Oli has been telling people to read the Constitution instead of criticising the dissolution.
Only the Majdoor Kisan Party and Rashtriya Prajatantra Party have welcomed the mid-term polls. Although Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba has personally been happy with the dissolution with a hope of becoming Prime Minister again, his party is also against the dissolution. It is widely suspected that Prime Minister Oli decided to dissolve the House in the backing of Deuba.
Now the issue of the House is sub-judice, and it is not certain whether the Courts reinstates the House or okays the dissolution, many suspects elections in April and May will be impossible for two reasons — fear of COVID-19 and the dispute over the authenticity of the ruling party because only one of the two factions of ruling Nepal Communist Party will be granted the status of the official party and another faction will take the case to the Court and the latter will need time to decide the matter.
Now, what will happen if the elections were impossible in April and May? First, PM Oli may impose an emergency rule citing any reason that makes elections impossible and use the time to suppress his rivals. But this can be counterproductive once the people take to the street because even the kings failed to survive the street demonstrations in the past. Consequently, if the House will be restored, on that case, the PM, as well as the President, will be ousted.
Second, when there will be no House and when there will be no election, the Prime Minister could impose presidential rule because PM Oli himself will be de-facto president in such a situation. But this will also not last long because people will revolt against such a move.
Moreover, the inability of elections will promote anarchy, injustice and corruption as there will be no people’s representatives to check the government. When people get frustrated, they will revolt for a change, which can even culminate in reinstating the monarchy. Hence, the inability to hold polls will push the country into uncertainty and violence for a while. But in all circumstances, PM Oli and the President will be the bigger losers.
What will happen if the SC restores HoR?
If the Supreme Court restores the House, the Prime Minister will either quit or face the no-trust motion. But the Prime Minister cannot survive the no-trust motion considering the current polarization in parties. The Nepali Congress will emerge as kingmaker because no faction of the Nepal Communist Party can form the government without having the support of NC.
While the PM will face no-trust motion, the President will surely be impeached because the Prachanda-Nepal faction has been greatly irked by her activities.
When both the President and the PM get removed, the parties will be in the race for the two posts. However, it is unlikely for Pushpa Kamal Dahal to become Prime Minister even if Oli is thrown because Oli could offer the post of the Prime Minister to NC president Deuba in the condition of retaining President Bidya Devi Bhandari in the post. But Deuba will face opposition from the party for an alliance with Oli. Again, Dahal-Nepal faction can also offer the same to Deuba, and many in NC will be in favour of this alliance because they believe an alliance with Dahal-Nepal will be easier than the alliance with Oli. And if NC alliances with Dahal-Nepal faction, they will share the posts of Prime Minister and President. If Dahal becomes the PM, Ram Chandra Paudel of NC will become the President, and if Deuba is given the post of PM, Jhalanath Khanal is likely to be new President.
As the new government will be holding the general election in 2022, Deuba will probably become the new PM, because in Nepal no communist government had ever conducted general elections.
The reinstatement of the House will be the biggest blow for Oli and the President. They will lose not only their positions but also the supporters. Many of the NCP leaders now supporting Oli will switch to Dahal-Nepal camp.
Attempts to influence the SC verdict on HoR dissolution increase
The statement of four former chief justices stating that the Constitution gives no right to the Prime Minister to dissolve the House of representatives has drawn criticism from Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, his aides and puppets terming it as an attempt to influence the Supreme Court verdict on the House dissolution case.
However, Prime Minister Oli, his deputy and ministers have been openly stating that the House could not be reinstated as if they themselves were the court.
The statement of the four former chief justices too has drawn controversy as their effort seem to put pressure on the chief justice and the supreme court. According to a source, the Law Society chaired by ex-chief justice Kalyan Shrestha had initiated the plan to issue the statement. The Law Society is said to be running under the funding of some European countries.
Of course, both the government and rival factions are trying to influence the court, which is beyond the norms of the court’s jurisdiction.
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