Kathmandu, Oct 27: The Global Forecast System (GFS) has made a major change to its weather forecast over the past 24 hours.
The latest forecast indicates the possible development of another cyclone. But meteorologist Binod Pokharel says the risk of Cyclone Arnab affecting Nepal has dropped considerably.
Other weather models, however, do not show clear signs of another cyclone developing soon.
Pokharel says two main scenarios now need to be considered. “If another cyclone develops, it could weaken Arnab,” he wrote on Facebook. “In that case, the likelihood of heavy rainfall in Nepal would decrease, although light rain could continue until Monday.”
If another cyclone does not form, or develops later than expected, the risk of heavy rainfall from Thursday to Saturday will remain, he said. Most other weather models currently point to this scenario.
“This makes it very challenging to forecast how this weather system will develop and affect the region,” Pokharel said.
Cyclone Arnab is expected to reach the coastal area around Visakhapatnam, India, this afternoon or evening. Its effects could begin to appear in Nepal from tomorrow in the form of increased cloud cover, while rainfall is likely to start on Thursday, according to Pokharel.
The forecast of heavy rainfall across many areas from Gandaki to Koshi provinces remains unchanged. Pokharel said uncertainty has increased because the GFS model differs from other models. It remains unclear whether Nepal will experience intense rainfall or lighter rain continuing over a longer period.
“Nevertheless, the combined forecasts from seven models still indicate the possibility of heavy rainfall in Nepal,” he wrote. “People travelling in the Himalayan region should take extra precautions. Farmers should also make the necessary preparations to protect harvested paddy and crops ready for harvesting.”
People’s News Monitoring Service
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