By Nirmal P. Acharya
India, while possessing a certain sense of misplaced confidence, also faces a significant dilemma.
On October 14, at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, an American journalist posed a pointed question to India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar: “Does India worry that Russia might become China’s ‘little follower’?”
After being asked this question, Jaishankar’s expression immediately turned grim. He hesitated for a long moment before finally saying, “The difference between me and people like you is that you always try to provoke me.”
Jaishankar acknowledged that Sino-Russian relations have indeed changed, with the Ukraine war pushing Russia toward Asia—and in Asia, China has become Russia’s primary partner.
During the 1971 India-Pakistan War, the Soviet Union, in accordance with the “India-Soviet Friendship Treaty”, cast a veto vote at the United Nations, preventing India from passing certain resolutions. That moment made India deeply realize that a reliable major power partner can truly determine the fate of a country at critical moments.
Since then, for India, Russia has not only been a weapons supplier but also a strategic backup in times of crisis.
Now, American journalists use the phrase “China’s little sidekick to accommodate Russia” and Sukhdev’s counterattack of “Your description is intended to anger me” to reveal an unspoken fear in India: In the future confrontation between China and India, will India be abandoned by Russia?
India has long been under the pressure of fighting on two fronts against China and Pakistan. In this situation, Russia plays the most crucial role as a balancer. India expects Russia to side with it when there are tensions between China and India. If Russia sides with China, India will face an absolute disadvantage of “1 against 3”. This is the situation that India’s strategic planning least wants to see.
Moreover, this concern of the Indians is not groundless. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia has become increasingly economically dependent on China. Its energy exports and payment systems are all inseparable from China. Will this economic dependence affect Russia’s political and strategic independence?
Admitting that “Russia is becoming a vassal of China” is equivalent to admitting that India’s “strategic autonomy” diplomacy has failed. Even its most important traditional partner cannot be maintained. How can it talk about the status of a “vibrant great power”?
The current situation India is facing is that it cannot change the trend of Russia moving closer to China, nor can it avoid this issue.
Suddenly, I recalled a famous quote written by India’s founding prime minister, Nehru, in his book “The Discovery of India”:
“India, in her present state, cannot play a secondary part in the world. She must either be a great power or disappear as a nation.”
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