By Nirmal P. Acharya
This is an era dominated by “collapse theories.” Ten years ago, the “China collapse theory” was popular; in recent years, the “India collapse theory” and even the “U.S. collapse theory” have become increasingly prevalent.
The “Indian Collapse Theory” is based on an analysis of the structural predicaments of the Indian nation. Its core argument is: three levels of “inherent deficiencies”
Firstly, there is a lack of “national identity”. The view holds that India has never formed a unified and powerful state; rather, it is more like a “geographical concept” forcibly pieced together by British colonizers. There is a lack of solid national cohesion within the country.
Secondly, the combination of “the worst systems”. The view holds that India combines “British democracy” with “Soviet planned economy”. However, it lacks the efficiency of both Britain and the United States, as well as the discipline of the Soviet Union. This inherent institutional contradiction limits its development potential.
Thirdly, its geographical “vitality” is controlled by others. The view points out that India’s economic lifeline is highly dependent on the water sources of the Himalayas. This geographical dependence is regarded as its national security’s “Achilles’ heel”.
India has deep vulnerabilities in national construction, institutional integration, and geographical security. These are indeed the real challenges India faces.
The “American Collapse Theory” is based on the assertion that “the United States is undergoing a systemic change”. Its main arguments are centered around the following aspects:
Firstly, in the economic realm: the AI bubble and the financial crisis. The theory holds that the US economy is facing significant risks, with the core being the AI bubble. The strong push for AI in the US has given rise to “the largest and most fragile bubble in human history”, which may burst by the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027. The collapse of this bubble will trigger a severe financial crisis, a massive financial crisis with a destructive power that could be ten times that of the 2000 Internet bubble, impacting the entire world but with the climax and conclusion occurring in the United States.
Secondly, in the political and social realm: the decline of the “Founding Spirit”. The theory holds that the problems of the US are not only economic but also deep-seated political and social systemic changes. The US will be plunged into social division and political purging, falling from a “lighthouse on the summit of the mountain” into the “abyss of the law of the jungle”. The American hegemonic order is built on plundering, and when plundering becomes unsustainable, the country will undergo systemic changes.
The theory also points out that the US has become hollow due to the relocation of manufacturing, with its shipbuilding capacity being only 0.3% of China’s; at the same time, due to the abolition of the gold standard, the debt has become out of control, and the federal debt has exceeded 39 trillion US dollars.
Thirdly, in the international order realm: “The American Peace” will come to an end. Firstly, the “American Peace Era” comes to an end: 2026 is the beginning of the end of the “American Peace Era”, and the US has become “the largest source of uncertainty in the world”.
The “American Collapse Theory” also makes clear predictions and provides specific risk time windows (from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027).
This is indeed an era when “collapse theories” are prevalent. In my opinion, among the three major powers – China, India and the United States – at least one of them will soon collapse and cause a huge upheaval. How can Nepal ride the waves and survive?
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