By Gabriela Bernal
Russia won’t be the only state delighted by the disastrous meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. North Korea – given its status as a direct party to the conflict in Ukraine – is likely very pleased with the colossal collapse of talks between Washington and Kyiv.
Dismissing Zelensky as being “not ready for peace”, the US president may now choose to double down on negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin instead to try to end the war.
At first glance, an end to the war may seem like bad news for North Korea, but Pyongyang could make significant gains if Trump prioritised talks with Russia. A favourable outcome for Russia, especially, could indicate to Pyongyang the potential for a similar diplomatic breakthrough with the US.
Moreover, even if the fighting in Ukraine ends, North Korean soldiers and personnel could remain in Russia for further training, even used as mercenaries, especially in covert operations.
North Korea is also likely to continue sending labourers to work at construction sites in Russia. According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency, Russian demand for such workers remains high, with 13,000 North Koreans entering Russia last year, a 12-fold jump from 2023. This trend is likely to continue whether or not the Ukraine conflict ends. Arms deals could also continue as the war has depleted Russia’s stockpiles.
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Indeed, the North Korea-Russia alliance could thrive if Putin negotiates a favourable agreement with Trump. Since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s primary goal is to obtain security guarantees from the US, he will be watching the Washington-Moscow negotiations closely.
First, Kim will be pleased to see Trump’s willingness to engage in bilateral talks with Putin despite the ire of the European Union and Ukraine. Trump described a phone call with Putin last month as “lengthy and highly productive”, and there are reportedly plans to meet in person soon. A meeting is even more likely now in the wake of Trump’s disastrous meeting with Zelensky.
This suggests Trump may be willing also to meet Kim, potentially sidelining traditional allies such as South Korea and Japan.
Seoul has long been wary of US-North Korea talks, fearing being left out of any deal that emboldens Pyongyang and weakens US security commitments to Seoul. Given Trump’s readiness to put aside the EU and Ukraine in pursuit of a deal with Russia, he may similarly disregard Seoul to get a deal with Pyongyang.
While South Korea played a mediating role between Pyongyang and Washington under president Moon Jae-in, the current administration is in no position to do so, given the hostile inter-Korean relations and South Korea’s political turmoil.
To make matters worse for Seoul, Trump may sooner turn to Putin for a mediating party in US talks with North Korea than South Korean diplomats, given the strong personal ties between Putin and Kim. This is especially if the Putin-Trump relationship improves following the Ukraine peace negotiations.
There is reason to believe Russia is already keeping North Korea in the loop about current talks with the US. Last week, Putin and some of his close aides held talks with a senior North Korean official in Moscow.
Russia has enough reason to act as an intermediary. For one, it is highly indebted to North Korea for its significant military support over the last two years. Also, given the North Korea-Russia mutual defence treaty, improved US-North Korea relations would benefit Moscow by greatly diminishing the possibility of Russia having to defend North Korea in case of conflict on the peninsula.
For Pyongyang, having Russia as a mediator would increase the chances of securing concessions from Washington. Last month, Russia’s ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora welcomed the prospect of renewed dialogue between Kim and Trump.
Concessions will have to be made for Kim to return to talks with Trump. Fortunately, Trump has shown a willingness to make controversial concessions with Russia. For example, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has dismissed as unrealistic a restoration of Ukraine’s borders and Nato membership in a negotiated settlement. Should Putin secure a deal along these lines, the prospects of diplomacy with the US would become much more attractive to Kim.
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Although Trump was unwilling to provide Pyongyang with sanctions relief or other economic concessions the last time around, this could change.
For instance, Trump could regard America’s joint military exercises with South Korea and Japan as being provocative towards North Korea – a stance he has previously adopted. He has said, before entering office, that Seoul should pay the US 10 times as much for the stationing of US troops, suggesting to Kim that Trump might reduce America’s military presence in the South. This would represent a significant victory for Pyongyang, which sees US forces below the 38th parallel as a critical concern.
North Korea will now be closely watching what Trump does next. While Russia is praising Trump’s hardline stance toward Kyiv, an agreement remains elusive.
Should Putin fail to secure his desired terms or if the Ukraine conflict persists indefinitely, the likelihood of renewed US-North Korea diplomatic engagement would diminish significantly. The North Korea-Russia alliance would probably strengthen, along with Pyongyang’s hostility towards Washington.
One certainty remains: the outcome of the US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine will influence Kim’s openness to dialogue with Trump and shape the trajectory of US-North Korea relations. Should Putin secure advantageous terms, Kim could be positioned to benefit next from the new US president’s unconventional diplomatic approach.
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