By Our Reporter
After the Election Commission decided to hold the by-elections in Ilam and Bajhang on April 27, the political parties intensified their election-oriented activities, especially in Ilam.
A seat in the House of Representatives has fallen vacant in Ilam-2 after the demise of UML leader Subas Nembang on September 12 last year. Nembang, who served as the Speaker and Chairman of the Constituency Assembly, was elected in all elections from Ilam-2 since 1999. He was elected to the erstwhile House of Representatives in 1999 by defeating NC’s Kul Bahadur Gurung. Likewise, he was elected to the Constituency Assembly elections in 2008 and 2013 and parliamentary elections in 2017 and 2022.
Nembang’s death had created a void not only in the UML party but also in his Ilam constituency. Now no UML leader can guess who will contest the April 27 by-election in Ilam 2 although a section of the media has been floating the name of Suhang Nembang, the youngest son of the late Nembang as the potential candidate of the party. But when several leaders have been working for the party living in Ilam, young Suhang, who was brought up and educated in Kathmandu, may not be a suitable candidate.
While Ram Rana, one of the popular UML leaders of Ilam, has been serving as a Provincial Assembly member of Koshi, UML may find it difficult to get a Janajati candidate, because Ilam-2 has dominating voters from Janajatis, mostly Limbu and Rai.
When the pro-identity group, which has been waging a protest against the naming of the province Koshi since March last year, targets the UML leaders, it is not easy for UML to win the election this time.
Likewise, in the NC there is a bitter rivalry between two factions—one led by Bhesh Raj Acharya and another by party district president Dambar Khadka. Acharya whose home is in Ilam-2 has built the party organisation over the years. But he was denied a ticket in the 2022 election, as Khadka managed to get the ticket because of his close contact with party president Sher Bahadur Deuba. Had Acharya been given the ticket, the election result could have been different. Nembang was sure to lose the election to Acharya when Khadka lost it by just 113 votes. When Khadka lost the election, he blamed Acharya for the defeat, and it spoiled Khadak’s image. If Khadka becomes the NC candidate again, he will surely face another defeat. Moreover, when the Maoists have already announced not to forge an electoral alliance with NC in Ilam, no NC candidate other than Acharya may win the election. Besides, Keshav Thapa and Hari Khanal are other potential NC candidates from Ilam-2.
The Rastriya Swatantra Party may also impact the election results in Ilam if it picks a local popular figure as its candidate. Rumours had been that Dharma Gautam was contesting the election from the RSP, and if Gautam becomes the candidate as rumoured, he is likely to win the election, because he can attract a large number of NC votes, as he is a victimised NC leader, who spent seven years in exile and stayed with BP Koirala in India.
Likewise, a seat of the Provincial Assembly has fallen vacant in Bajhang 1 (A) after Prithvi Bahadur Singh, a member of the Sudurpaschim Provincial Assembly elected from Bajhang 1 (A) died in a road accident on June 20, 2023. He was elected from the NC as a common candidate for the ruling alliance. He had defeated UML’s Aphilal Okheda. This time too Okheda may be the UML candidate. However, it is not sure who will be NC’s candidate. Abhishek Singh, son of the late Singh, and Jagat Prasad Joshi are two potential candidates from NC.
If the NC and Maoists do not forge an election alliance, NC may not be able to retain the seat of the PA in Bajhang either.
The EC has fixed April 6 for the nomination of candidates both in Ilam and Bajhang.
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