By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
On February 8, the 16th parliamentary election was held in Pakistan. There was speculation that the election would be postponed and even if it is held, it would be rigged by some political parties. Amidst these doubts and uncertainties, the Pakistanis voted to elect their representatives sending the message that it is their inalienable right to vote and no force can dissuade them from enjoying these constitutionally guaranteed rights.
But the election result has surprised everyone as none of the parties got the majority. A total of 101 independent candidates have the largest number of seats. What is very interesting is the fact that despite winning the largest number of seats in the 266 directly elected constituencies, the independent candidates cannot stake claim to form the government as they are not organized as a political party. Now, how do we interpret this fractured mandate?
Pakistan became a country on August 14, 1947, to form the largest Muslim state in the world at that time. Pakistan‘s short history as a country has been very turbulent. It oscillated between military rule and democratically elected government. It has also witnessed the state of emergency and assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto giving the impression that there has been an unending trend of political instability.
In the 2018 general elections, Imran Khan’s PTI was the single largest party. However, Khan was ousted from power after losing a no-confidence vote in 2022, while Shehbaz Sharif was announced as the new Prime Minister. Thereafter, the country faced the worst economic crisis which was further aggravated by the political instability when the former Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from premiership through a confidence vote in April 2022. The then-opposition parties formed a 13-party Pakistan Democratic Movement. This government was led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Many political events took place in recent times in Pakistan. The return of Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan and his acquittal from several cases gave the impression that he was favored candidate of the establishment. However, Nawaz Sharif has withdrawn from his prime ministerial race and has blessed his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif to become the Prime Minister for the second time.
As the nation was struggling politically, the 16th parliamentary election was viewed as an important event in shaping the politics of the country given the recent political turmoil in the country. It was expected that the election would re-establish the political stability laying the ground for rapid economic growth. On the contrary, the election results have brought interesting numbers shattering the hopes of people who have been impatiently waiting for lasting peace and sustainable development.
No single party got the absolute majority to form the government. The independent candidates got more seats than mainstream parties. With this, Pakistan is heading for a coalition government. The consensus Prime Minister is Shehbhaz Sharif.
However, some debatable questions are being raised by political pundits. They hold the view that coalition government is very unpredictable and most unlikely to complete its tenure given the coalition partners with vested interests and ideologies. Their view and opinions seem to hold water. If we look at the past coalition government, we will find that it is very susceptible and falls prey to the grand design of the army.
Ever since Pakistan got its indolence and became an independent country in 1947, the army has been unduly interfering in the political affairs of the country. In a way, the army’s ability to play one party against another has been an open secret. This is manifested in a recent incident in which it empowered Pakistan Tehereek e Insaf (PTI) while the Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League Nawaj (PML-N) were critical of the army and its interference.
It is generally believed that Shahbaz Sharif has a very strong relationship with the army in Pakistan. It is said that Shehbhaz Sharif while he was in power passed the acts like Army Amendment Bill and the Criminal Amendment Bill that prevented criticism of the army. With this, one can easily predict how the politics in Pakistan will shape in days to come.
The fractured mandate is certainly not a good omen for Pakistanis who have already seen much political turmoil. If the past is any indicator, the army has always called the shots. Even the Supreme Court seems bidding on behalf of the army. Literally speaking, the army has remained a very powerful force in dictating to the incumbent government to do this and that.
With a fractured mandate, the coalition government is in trouble. But whether the coalition government will complete its given mandate remains to be seen. There is already a tale-tell situation among the people about the prospects of Pakistani politics. Experts say that because Pakistan has faced serious economic crises as a result of political instability in recent times, an unstable government would only add to its woes, both economically and politically. In plain words, political instability characterized by frequent changes of government will further worsen Pakistan’s economic predicaments as the country has faced severe economic crises with rising inflation and nearly $30 billion in debt servicing.
As a well-wisher and immediate neighbor, we wish to see Pakistan prosper in economic and political aspects. We also wish to see democracy flourishing in the nation, with political parties practising healthy politics. But a fractured mandate laying the ground for coalition politics is very likely to play the spoilsport. Let’s hope that Pakistan silences its critics and prospers.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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