By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
Very soon, we will bid adieu to the year 2023 and welcome the brand-new year 2024. While the year 2023 remained eventful, full of twists and turns in the international geopolitical and political arena having far-reaching consequences across the globe, we expect that the year 2024 comes with new hope and optimism for a better world order. We just hope that the ongoing conflict across the globe comes to an end, bringing peace and prosperity.
If media reports are anything to go by, there are some thirty ongoing civil wars across the globe. However, Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas have been among the high-profile cases. Amidst these wars, foreign policy practitioners and scholars disagree on the risk that high levels of intrastate violence pose to major powers and global stability. Likewise, they also disagree on the extent to which external powers can influence the trajectories of these conflicts or improve governance in areas affected by civil war.
It has been more than twenty months since the Ukraine-Russian war started. The conflict has impacted the globe in multiple ways. But no one can say with confidence what shape or ugly twist the conflict will take in the upcoming days. As of now, millions of civilians are unable to return home. Many still in the conflict zones are forced to live without access to food, water or electricity, in fear of constant shelling. More than 23, 000 casualties have been reported since February 24, 2022 and over 8000 people have been killed though the number is much higher. As it is not an isolated crisis, the ripple effects of Russian-Ukraine can be felt across the globe.
The countries on the eastern and northern flanks of Europe are strategically moving westward, seeking a collective European security umbrella. The countries mainly the Czech Republic, Baltic States and Poland have been covertly supporting Ukraine and imposing consequences on Russia. On the other hand, countries like Finland and Sweden are believed to join NATO while Ukraine and Georgia are in the pipeline. If we assess the Cold War, we will find that even during its height, Finland practically adopted neutrality which was a role model for many non-aligned and neutral countries in the world. However, Helsinki has given up this neutrality and recently joined NATO, which was the making of Russia itself.
At a time when there was no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, the globe witnessed another conflict in the Arabian Peninsula. The war between Islamic militant Hamas and Israel has only added further woes. The conflict started after the surprise attack of Hamas forced Israel to respond forcefully in many civilians in Palestine were caught in the crossfire. Thousands of Palestinians have been killed and many more have been injured and displaced. Several Israeli civilians have also lost their lives since the war began in November this year.
Israel is hell-bent on crushing the Hamas and thus intensified its assaults in the areas where Hamas is believed to be hiding. In this conflict, innocent Palestinians, mainly children and women, have become the victims, which has triggered humanitarian crises. Now, there are fears that this conflict could lay the groundwork as an epicentre of a larger war.
It is very unfortunate to say that the conflict is not limited just to the Arabian Peninsula. Thousands of miles away from here, the situation is no different either. Venezuela and Guyana have been confronting each other for the border dispute. Both Venezuela and Guyana claim over territory of 159,500 square kilometres the west of Essequibo River. The area, also known as Guyana Essequibo, is oil-rich and geopolitically vital in the Latin and Caribbean regions. Given the growing tension fearing military conflict, Brazil and some Caribbean and Brazil took the initiative to bring both to the negotiating table.
Despite this ongoing conflict across the globe, the geopolitical gravity has been shifting to Asia with India and China hogging the global attention. India and China have been challenging the West which until now has dominated the entire globe in terms of politics and economics. However, the global order seems to be changing with the US losing its political and economic influence across the globe. China has been challenging the US on multiple fronts marking the end of the unipolar world and the rise of the bipolar world. However, this too will be short-lived if India and other powers continue to grow further. This in turn will end the bipolar world and mark the beginning of the multi-polar world.
While many governments, including Russia and China, welcome multipolarity, the U.S. remains the world’s most powerful military power. However, the U.S.’s ability to shape geopolitical outcomes is clearly in decline, as was seen in its withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of war or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, challenging the post-Cold War security equilibrium in Europe. These changes actually leave the world in flux. But, there is a lack of clarity on which direction the world is headed.
A cursory look at these conflicts clearly indicates that the global disorder is inevitable. Whether the Russia- Ukraine war or the Israel-Hamas war, the interest groups are determined to prolong the war as it will enable them to create control chaos and thereby change the global order. However, given the rapidly changing global scenario, it remains to be seen who will be able to influence the entire globe — politically and economically.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
Login to add a comment