- Trump Poses Greatest Threat to the United States & the World at Large
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
It has become clear for some time now that day by day Trump is consolidating his hold on the American electorate. This in spite of his many legal troubles. A large section of the electorate is just willing to ignore his terrible qualities that make him unfit to be the president of the most powerful country in the world.
In a leading article, The Economist has spelled out what his possible victory in the presidential elections of November 2024 would mean for America and the world. It has a dire prognosis: “A shadow looms over the world”, the newsmagazine writes and characterizes a Trump victory as a “coin-toss probability” that is finally beginning to sink in (Nov. 16).
Trump is dominating in the Republican primaries (the process by which the candidate to challenge Joe Biden is chosen). Civil lawsuits and criminal prosecutions have only strengthened Trump’s standing.
It is inexplicable that poll after poll have Trump ahead of President Joe Biden in swing states (which are crucial in deciding the outcome).
In one, for the New York Times, 59% percent of the voters trusted him on the economy, compared with just 37 % percent for Biden.
Another strange phenomenon: For decades Democrats have relied on support among Black and Hispanic voters, but a meaningful number are abandoning the party.
The next 12 months will be crucial for the outcome of the elections and thus invariably influence world events.
The Domestic Dimension
For some time now, the functioning of democracy and state institutions in America have been in serious trouble.
There is absolutely no doubt that he lost the election in 2020, but still he insists that he won. This is not only the “Big Lie”, he cynically manipulated and intimidated a large section of the American populace into believing that he was right.
These supporters of Trump believe that like any medieval king, he ‘can do no wrong’ and is on the path of ‘making America great again’ – the ‘MAGA-Republicans’.
If Trump gains entry to the Oval Office (which ideally represents the American Presidency), it will have dreadful consequences for the American body politic.
His ardent supporters sense victory in the air and are already planning a second edition of the Trump presidency. This time around it would be far better organized and not so chaotic like the first.
True MAGA believers would occupy the most important positions and carry through the most thorough ‘cleansing’ of the civil service. It will be: ‘either you are with us, or against us’. The heads of non-cooperating institutions will roll like nothing in US history.
There will be no one and no institution to control his mad pursuit of personal revenge, economic protectionism and threatrically extravagant agreements.
Trump’s elevation to the presidency would spell the death-knell of the principle of checks and balances. He will wage war on any institution that stands in his way, including the
In such an environment, it is easy to comprehend that the two houses of Congress will also be intimidated, regardless of which party has the majority. If the decisions of Congress are not implemented by the executive, then a most chaotic situation will only evolve.
Trump’s Despicable Personality
In 2019, Kennedy Ndahiro, the editor of the Rwandan daily newspaper The New Times explained how years of cultivated hatred had led to death on a horrifying scale in his country.
“In Rwanda,” he wrote, “we know what can happen when political leaders and media outlets single out certain groups of people as less than human” (The Atlantic, Nov. 22).
Ndahiro pointed out that in 1959, Joseph Habyarimana Gitera, an influential political figure within the largest ethnic group in Rwanda, the Hutus, had openly called for the extermination of the Tutsi, the second-largest of Rwanda’s ethnic groups. Gitera referred to the Tutsi as “vermin” [= parasitic worms or insects/ very unpleasant and destructive people].
“The stigmatization and dehumanization of the Tutsi had begun,” Ndahiro wrote. It culminated in a 100-day stretch hatred had been unleashed,” Ndahiro wrote. “What began with dehumanizing words ended in bloodshed.”
He was reminded of the Rwandan genocide after he heard Donald Trump, in a Veterans Day speech, refer to those he counts as his enemies as “vermin”.
Even after such an inflammatory and disgusting speech, the uncouth Trump has enough supporters to bring him over the top.
Control of Congress in 2024
The elections of 2024 will also decide who will control the House and the Senate.
Currently, 34 Senate seats are up for grabs. For the Democrats to hold on to their current slim majority, they would need to hold onto every seat (which they now hold).
Democrats have higher hopes for the House, which Republicans now control by a mere margin or 222 seats to 213 seats.
Unlike the Senate, every House seat is up for re-election next year.
The External Environment
In the current environment of world affairs, the United States faces growing hostility in various theatres.
It is challenged by Russia in Ukraine, by Iran and its allied militias in the Middle East and by China across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. These three countries also loosely co-ordinate their efforts and share a vision of a new international order in which might is right and autocracy is on the march.
Trump’s second election victory would also have profound effects in international affairs.
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea would no doubt welcome the fact that so-called American democracy is dysfunctional. If Trump trampled on due process of law and civil rights at home, his diplomats could no longer propagate the advantages of democracy.
America would also lose the battle for the hearts and minds in the Global South. Its appeals to human rights and good governance around the world would be seen as just an exercise in hypocrisy. America would also lose its claim to be an inspiration to the world at large. It would just be another great power looking after its own selfish interests (as it did during the corona pandemic).
As The Economist formulates it “Trump’s lust for a deal and his sense of America’s interests are unconstrained by reality and unanchored by values.”
Europe to Fend for Itself
Trump has already articulated that America has no need to spend blood and treasure in Europe. He intends to end the war in Ukraine in a single day and to dismantle NATO. This also means that the US will not abide by the collective security arrangements – by which an attack on one member country is an attack on all.
Knowing that America would abandon Europe, Putin would have an incentive to prolong the war in Ukraine and even attack former Soviet satellites such as Moldova and the Baltic states.
Middle East
In the Middle East, Trump is likely to back Israel without reserve, however much that stirs up conflict in the entire region.
Without American pressure, Israel is unlikely to generate an internal consensus for peace talks with the Palestinians.
Asia-Pacific
In Asia he may be open to doing a deal with China’s president, Xi Jinping, to abandon Taiwan because he doesn’t see any benefit of America going to war with a nuclear-armed superpower to benefit a tiny island so far away!
However, Trump is surrounded by China hawks who are convinced that a US-China confrontation is the only way to preserve American dominance in world affairs.
Caught between a deal-making president and his warmongering officials, China could easily miscalculate over Taiwan, with catastrophic consequences.
Calculating that Trump does not stand by his allies, Japan and South Korea could acquire nuclear weapons.
Thus, as the great Chinese philosophers have said: ‘The ambitious should not be lent convenient power; the foolish should not be given sharp instruments.’
Climate Change
Trump would also assert that America has no global responsibility to help deal with climate change and would crush all efforts to slow the pace.
Most Consequential Presidential Elections, 2024
The presidential election of November 2024 will be decided in only a handful of so-called battleground states by merely tens of thousands of voters there because of the ‘indirect voting’ through the peculiarities of the Electoral College. Thus, Trump may be elected president by a vast minority of the total electorate.
Trump’s second term would be a watershed moment in American history: “Victory would confirm his most destructive instincts about power” (Economist). America’s moral authority would decline enormously because America will have voted him in even while knowing the worst [just like the Nepalese electorate voted the Maoists to power even while being cognizant of their nefarious deeds throughout the country – all the while being trained and supported by a foreign power].
As the great Chinese masters of philosophy have said: ‘When petty people are in high positions, it is not possible to rest easy even for a moment.’
Campaign Update
Joe Biden continues to get bad polling news.
A NBC News poll out last week has his approval rating on domestic policy hitting an all-time low of 40 % percent.
The approval rating on foreign policy was even lower – 33 % percent.
Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war seems to be driving the dip in his numbers. Just 34 % percent approve of his handling of the conflict.
Biden is faring especially poorly among young voters. 7 in 10 of those between 18 and 34 disapprove of how Biden has handled the war.
[For the independent external observer, this is the great paradox of modern American politics – the dichotomy between Biden’s solid achievements and the poor reception in the general electorate.
If Biden is a true patriot, he should desist from trying to win a second term and let a younger and more acceptable Democratic candidate try his hand – in a last ditch attempt to counter the gathering storm. The adage ‘old ist gold’ is no longer valid, at least in the current American electoral context. ]
The Pundits’ Take
David Freedlander of New York Magazine thinks that Nikki Haley will soon be the last Republican aspirant standing against Trump “because of her gender, or her raw political skills, Haley is also a harder target for the former president” (Council on Foreign Relations/The Water’s Edge, Nov.24).
Ron Brownstein assessed how Biden might recover from his dismal poll numbers and win a second term. That strategy would “focus as much on what Trump would do with power if he’s reelected as on what Biden has done in office.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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