By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
The island nation of the Maldives just concluded a presidential election. In the second round of elections, Mohamed Muizzu from the People’s National Congress (PNC) became victorious, defeating Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the incumbent president of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).
In the first round of elections, eight candidates were in the race for the presidential position. But sadly, none received the mandatory 50 percent of the votes to be elected. As a result, the runoff election was scheduled for 30 September between the contenders Solih and his rival Muizzu. Muizzu was nominated by its alliance partner, the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) which is headed by former president Abdulla Yameen who is currently in jail and was disqualified to contest the election. In the first round of elections, Muizzu received 46 percent of the votes, and Solih received 39 percent. Solih is seen as close to India, while Muizzu has been viewed as a darling of China. Both China and India have a deep interest in the Indian Ocean.
The Maldives was an independent Islamic sultanate for most of its history, from 1153 to 1968. However, it was a British protectorate from 1887 until July 25, 1965. Following its independence from the British in 1965, the sultanate continued to operate for another three years. On November 11, 1968, it was abolished and replaced by a republic and the country assumed its present name.
Since the dawn of democracy in 2008, this island nation has become a ground for a contest among emerging powerful nations given its geostrategic location. India and China have been tirelessly attempting to increase and enhance their influence through various strategies. The Belt & Road Initiative of China and Neighborhood first policy of the Indian government under the leadership of Modi are cases in point.
There is no denying the fact that India has been playing a significant role in defending and strengthening democracy in Maldives. As an immediate neighbor, India has extended its support at critical times. While Maldives was passing through economic woes, the Indian government announced $ 1.4 billion credit line to help overcome its financial crises. However, this cordial relationship has soured in recent times. This was manifested in the just concluded election in which the Progressive Party of Maldives used anti-India as its major election slogan.
At a time when the relationship between India and the Maldives nosedived, China took advantage and expressed its interest in helping the Maldives. Many political observers argue that India’s unbearable interference in the micro-management forced the Maldives to seek the support of China. So much so, the Maldives government has even passed the free trade agreement with China though it drew a widespread flak for not being debated in the parliament. According to Zhiyong of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China is promoting Maldives as a maritime pivot; Maldives could become a supply base for Chinese military and civil vessels. Both China and Maldives deny plans for any Chinese base in Maldives
During Abdulah Yameen’s presidency, the Maldives had cordial relations with China and welcomed numerous infrastructure projects by signing a memorandum of understanding in 2014, which brought the Maldives into the Maritime Silk Road component of the BRI, as well as a free trade agreement in December 2017. In addition, economic relations boomed with Chinese investments that supported several large-scale projects, including the 2-km long bridge to connect the country’s major airport to the capital city and several long-term leases on small Maldivian islands
India has had strong historical, cultural, political and socio-economic relations with Maldives. It has been enjoying great diplomatic ties and bilateral relations with China. But in recent years Maldives has developed closer ties with China. Now, India’s main concern and headache is the growing influence of China in the Maldives. New Delhi is very much mindful of the fact that these supports will only consolidate Beijing’s presence in Maldives. It is also worried about losing its grip in Maldives which is fatal in terms of security in the Indian Ocean. This is the appropriate time for India to revisit its mistakes and go for course correction to re-establish its relationship with the Maldives.
The media report says that the island Maldives has been reluctant to follow its promised “India first” policy irritating New Delhi. The report also blamed India’s foreign policy for its strained relations with the Maldives saying that interfered in its micromanagement laying the ground to upset the Maldivian government. Over the years, New Delhi has made several attempts to refurbish the relationship. But to no avail.
Former Indian external affairs minister the late Sushma Swaraj during her meeting with her Maldivian counterpart, Mohamed Asim, raised this concern expressing dissatisfaction in Delhi in 2018. Despite her best efforts, the Maldivian government preferred to distance itself from India.
The tussle between India and China over Maldives is starkly clear. While India has consistently favored Maldives if it meets its interest, the latter’s behavior has changed depending on which regime is in power. Given the strategic location of the Maldives, both have their vested interest and will not leave any stone unturned to foster their ties with the Maldives — be it politically, socially, culturally or militarily.
Maldives will remain geopolitically crucial for countries having a deep interest in the Indian Ocean, and India and China. The result of the just concluded election reflects increasing anti-Indian sentiment among the Maldivian people, whereas, China seems to have strengthened its presence in Maldives.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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