National/Regional/International Affairs
“A fool is known by his speech, and a wise man by his silence.”
-Pythagoras.
By N. P. Upadhyaya (Aryal)
Biratnagar: The BRICS Summit that was held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22-24 2023 brought mixed results for Indian Prime Minister Modi.
Reports say that while in the South African capital, PM Modi witnessed several distasteful moments which must have embarrassed him if not insulted.
Modi’s degradation in South Africa commenced right from the Airport where he landed with a galaxy of Indian bureaucrats, however, as luck would have it, Modi was greeted deservedly by a junior rank South African official which for PM Modi was the first beating on his highly arrogant personality.
Modi was made aware of his dwarfish international stature vis-à-vis Chinese President Xi Jinping, who commands international respect and honour from across the globe.
In a similar way, PM Modi underwent several dishonors, including some knife-like protest slogans that even read as “Go Back Modi”…Go Back Modi”….
Yet, PM Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping on August 23, 2023, before his departure to Greece.
Indian media (or say the Godi media) claim that PM Modi and President Xi met and exchanged views that almost centered on de-escalating along the international border.
The NDTV, India, reports that the two leaders in the lounge meeting agreed to work for “expeditious de-escalation” along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC), where tensions have been high since June 2020, when the two sides clashed in eastern Ladakh’s Galwan Valley.
One more embarrassment for PM Modi:
The unkind news for PM Modi and his Godi media came as a blitzkrieg when the Chinese foreign ministry described the meeting of the two leaders, PM Modi and President Xi, as having been convened only upon the Indian request.
This means that PM Modi himself took the initiative for the meeting, which speaks so many things unspoken.
However, the meeting went well, as media sources say, and the Chinese President, as per the statement issued after the meeting from the Chinese side said, “Improving China-India relations serves the common interests of the two countries and peoples, and is also conducive to peace, stability, and development in the world and the region”.
The new twist in China-India relations:
A happy PM Modi upon meeting President Xi left for Greece, his next official destination after South Africa.
Back in Johannesburg, the 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa) Summit ended well on August 24, 2023, however, on August 28, 2023, yet, crushing news from China stunned the entire Indian regime and PM Modi personally.
At least PM Modi may not have even dreamt that such upsetting news would greet him first when he returned home, India. He had met President Xi just five days ago in Johannesburg.
Braving several non-ending humiliations, PM Modi came back from the foreign junket on August 26, 2023, and landed in Bengaluru, India, only to be greeted by yet another mega dishonor right inside his own country, India. Here too he had a minor bump.
In fact PM Modi landed in Bengaluru so that he could applaud the scientists who made India proud by sending the ChandraYaan to the Moon, however, the destiny that was in store for PM Modi was a bit different than expected.
The Chief Minister of Karnataka, Siddaramaiah aka Siddu had already taken this privilege and PM Modi lagged behind.
Yet he greeted the scientists and appreciated their role in making India proud with a heavy heart.
Hardly had PM Modi relaxed for two good days in his dominion, news that emanated from Indian enemy rival China shook PM Modi from within once again.
The news beamingly publicized by China, on August 28, 2023, was the issuance of the “China Standard Map Edition 2023”, which jerked not only India but hit hard several countries, for example, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and neighboring Nepal as well, the official tail of India.
Writing for the CNN news agency dated August 31, 2023, Rhea Mogul recalls some of President Xi Jinping’s highhandedness and says, among others, “Since his rise to power in 2012, leader Xi Jinping has sought to transform China into a global superpower, pushing an aggressive foreign policy and making bolder moves in several key flashpoints across Asia”.
Nepali observers opine that President Xi neither laughs…nor anger could be observed in his face…however, whenever he acts, he acts aggressively…thus annoying several countries at a time…so what he is…nobody knows so far…?
Such political personalities are difficult to read…and understand ….however, what is for sure is that such people look only for their national interests…
Nepal’s self-proclaimed international experts opine that Nepal is flanked by two notorious giants; the one in the South is almost an expansionist, funny personality and the other one in the North appears a heavy and rigid political celebrity who doesn’t speak but acts fast which serves his prime national interests including those of security as well.
On August 28, 2023, when China released its up-to-date map for world knowledge and consumption, this move almost gulped the entire Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region (plateau) and made it known to adversary India that it was Chinese territory in essence.
India-China war appears imminent:
With the release of the new map, the already tensed India-China bilateral ties have heightened which apparently has brought both the rivals of the 1962 brawl face to face once again.
This forces us to predict that a high-voltage war between the two is imminent in the near future.
Reportedly, China is prepared for the war which is why it released a map that was thought well in advance, expecting India will surely strike back.
India is prepared or not, but China appears to be ready for a full-fledged war.
However, China-India trade runs in billions.
The Indian FM Shankar instead has ridiculed the Chinese stance as …”China does such awkward acts every now and then and hence India doesn’t take the Chinese steps seriously.”
Having said this, India is shaking from within with the fear of full-scale war with China on the horizon…
If at this time India and China come to the battlefield then for sure Israel and the US shall side with India then the Russians will, given the present compelling situation, side with China or at least stay neutral.
More so, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing this October which will mean much for China and South Asia’s power balance.
Putin needs support and the countries that support Putin shall be in the good book of Russia for long.
It is time that Pakistan should cultivate ties with Russia for long-term benefits.
An annoyed Russia with India in the Quad may shower bounties for Pakistan.
This Russian closeness with Pakistan may also prompt the US to compete with the Russians in Pakistan.
However, fair play is a must which needs shrewd diplomatic sharpness as it would be a play with the two world powers of the world. Both Russia and the US mean much to Pakistan and will remain important for all time to come.
Writing for India’s mint news outlet on August 29, 2023, Sayantani Biswas says the map released by China shows Arunachal which China claims as its Southern flank and Aksai Chin occupied by it in the 1962 war as part of its territory.
So much so that the new map of China includes Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea.
Observers say that China may have hit back at India’s political overtures recently that it made to enhance trade linkages with Taiwan, which China claims is an integral part.
India recently allowed Taiwan to open its trading office in Mumbai, media agencies had reported.
China may have concluded that whatever India was doing with Taiwan was all the tricks of the Quad.
However, this is just an assumption.
China distances Nepal too:
China which claimed umpteen times in the past that it would for sure protect Nepal’s territorial integrity and sovereignty has amazingly scoffed at Nepal by not including the pointed map of Nepal that was officially launched by sovereign Nepal’s Parliament enjoying consensus of all political forces back in May, 2020.
Some say that for the lapse, Nepal’s inadequate diplomatic efforts were sure to be blamed. Others say that awarding of Hydro-projects to India and that too by snatching the same from China may have irked China to the hilt and thus the retribution.
Yet others say that after the ouster of the Nepali monarchy, Nepal’s adherence to one-China policy ceased to exist and thus the vengeance.
China perhaps is not going to compromise with Nepal’s avowed deviation in the “One China Policy”.
Surely, Nepal has abandoned this policy to please some other forces; it is talked about in the political circuit of Kathmandu.
However, this scribe personally feels that China has lost its influence in Nepal after the unceremonious dismissal of the Monarchy.
This scribe firmly believes that for the firing of the monarchy, China’s tacit understanding with India too could be one prime reason that in turn could have reduced the influence of China in Nepal.
The other Poles have heavily dominated Nepal’s politics after the expulsion of the Monarchy.
Moreover, the staunch supporters of China in Nepal got a dismal and almost unexpected setback when Nepal was hit by a 7.9 quake on the Richter scale on April 25, 2015 had to learn that India and China had inked a bilateral trade deal through the Lipulekh/Kalapani/Limpiyadhura pass that solely belonged to Nepal and no advance permission was awarded by Nepal for the bilateral trade. This was an unauthorized bilateral trade. China had also challenged Nepal’s sovereignty.
Unless the blunder is corrected, China may not receive the same free love and honor from the Nepali population.
In this regard, Kathmandu’s Mayor Balen Sah’s cancellation of his five-day-long China trip is timely but mysterious.
Hope that such courage is exhibited by Indian bend leaders who at times visit China under the fake credentials of Communism.
Nepali Communists are all the posted and paid agents of India, it is highly believed in Nepal.
China thus itself proved that it was not a reliable partner of Nepal as it used to be at the time of Chairman Mao––Tse– Tung, Deng-Xiao-Ping and Chou-en-Lai plus the days of Marshal Chen Yi.
By not recognizing Nepal’s new map, China has, in an oblique manner, given legality to India’s occupation of Nepali landmass in the far west.
The new map of China, in many more ways than one, has subtly initiated the process of new alignments and realignments between the countries affected by the Chinese fresh political step.
It is only Pakistan that has not been affected by China’s new map.
Hopefully, it is only because of the Chinese deep engagement in the CPEC-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Pakistan is the single country in South Asia that has a smooth going with China or else….?
Some visible Geopolitical shifts may take place that will certainly distance some countries from China who were hit hard by the new Chinese map. Conversely, some countries will inch closer to China as well.
The weaker ones, like Nepal as the tail of India, will have to digest the shame.
Nepal PM Dahal is soon visiting China, and the host country knows well that Dahal’s political indoctrination took place in India.
China apparently doesn’t take PM Dahal seriously for this underlying political reason.
Perhaps China takes K. P. Oli too as India’s man. Oli’s straight links with the RAW spy agency must not be a guarded secret for China, expectedly.
Sources say that China is thinking of the restoration of King Gyanendra to the Nepali throne as it can’t leave Nepal to the mercy of India and the US for a variety of its own politico-security reasons. A fresh visit of King Gyanendra to Singapore reportedly was to meet representatives of PM Modi and President Xi. The meeting went well.
By this October China’s inner minds on Nepal will be clear when President Xi greets President Vladimir Putin in Beijing.
Their talks in Beijing are likely to cover entire world politics including strategically important Nepal-now the official servant of India.
China is determined to restore Monarchy at any cost sooner rather than later.
After restoring King Gyanendra, Mrs. Bidya Devi Bhandari is China’s choice for Nepal Prime Minister, it is said.
The G20 meet in India:
The G20 meet is scheduled to be held in New Delhi from September 9-10, 2023.
The non-participation of Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping at Delhi’s G20 meet too is loaded with political meaning underneath as it will be the absence of the two heavyweights, Putin and Xi Jinping, that will contribute to having a positive impact on the countries of South Asia and the Gulf.
Putin fears the ICC-International Criminal Court’s warrant then China perhaps prefers to toe the Russian line.
More so China hesitates to be in Delhi due to the new map issue.
In sum, the participation or even the non-participation of the countries in G20 meet may hasten the speed of expected alignments and realignments of the countries across the world.
A great geo-political shift is expected sooner than later. What is clear is that Beijing has very fittingly distanced Moscow from New Delhi which is advantageous for Pakistan in so many ways than one. Hold your breath.
Beijing and Moscow have come closer this time in a very compelling-dramatic manner.
The Beijing-Moscow axis that is yet to take a formal shape will eventually be a formidable force in due course of time.
The G20 and Trudeau factor:
The young and energetic Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is likely to bring an awkward situation for host India when he is expected to bring up the Ukrainian issue at the G20 meet in Delhi.
The fact is that the Canadian PM expressed his utmost surprise when he learnt from President Voldomyr Zelensky that he was not invited to Delhi’s G20 meet.
Murray Brewster for CBC news says on August 24, 2023, Trudeau said recently that he was not happy that Ukraine is being excluded from the upcoming G20 summit in India.
However, the Canadian PM assured Zelensky saying that he will be speaking up strongly for him and that Canada will continue to make sure that the world is standing with Ukraine.
How Russian FM Sergei Lavrov reacts to the Canadian stance will determine the success of G20 in Delhi.
If so then the G20 meet in Delhi is sure to be a meeting of fractured groups.
India will not give its nod to issue any statement that condemns the Russians. A sort of mayhem is expected at the G20 meet in Delhi. That’s all.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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