- Regime Change in Russia: Possibilities & Probabilities
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
The aborted Wagner mutiny has demonstrated that Vladimir Putin is not ‘monarch of all he surveys’. His so-called iron-clad control over an authoritarian regime is riddled with holes.
It has also become clear to many observers that the sooner Putin is removed from office, the better it will be to:
- End his war in Ukraine
- Ukraine to embark on a path of Reconstruction
- Russia to move to normalization – domestically and with its Western neighbours
- Establish a new security architecture in Europe
- Renew grain and fertilizer deliveries from both Ukraine and Russia to the wider world
- Re-model a new international order, including reform of the United Nations Security Council
- De-escalation of the Sino-American confrontation, the most consequential bilateral rivalry of the 21st century
- Defusing the Sino-Indian conflict – a blot on South-Asian development and progress.
However, before the international community can embark on these new and vital steps, Putin is a great hindrance on this path.
The world, and the political West can only do so much.
Russia’s renewal must come from within. For this, the international community and especially the political West must seek an intense dialogue with the Russian people.
A leading Russia-expert, Max Bergman (Director at the Center for Startegic and International Studies/CSIS, who previously served in the US Department of State), writes that it is high noon for US President Joe Biden to lead the effort to tell the Russian people that it is time for Putin to go. He should call on Russians to oust Putin and end their international isolation (Foreign Affairs, July).
Russian Domestic Environment
For Russia itself, Putin’s invasion has been an unmitigated disaster. His dream of a new Russian empire has been assigned to the dustbin of history.
At least 50,000 have been killed and 150,000 wounded.
More than one million of its best and brightest have fled abroad in order to avoid ‘the special military operation’ – they have voted with their feet!
The economy is going to the dogs and the noose is getting tighter. Russia finds itself in a rapidly declining macroeconomic situation.
The country is more isolated on the world stage than it has been in the last 100 years.
The Putin regime is ruthless in exterminating all critics.
The New York Times notes that General Vladimirovich Surovikin is not the only member of the Russian military leadership to disappear, be dismissed or perish in the past months.
Many experts speculate if Surovikin had prior knowledge of the Wagner insurrection, if he was not an instigator himself.
Lt. Gen. Frederick B. Hodges, a former commander of the US Army in Europe cited by the NYT:
“All the problems are institutional, deeply-rooted flaws – corruption, lack of readiness.”
Role of the International Community
In a parallel campaign, Biden and the West must also win over China and India, as well as other neutral countries in the Ukraine war – Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and the Global South generally – to the goal of ending the unnecessary and aggressive war – which has now inexorably become Putin’s war.
According to the assessment of Sergey Radchenko, professor of international relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, ‘Putin is still useful to Xi Jinping for now… Until he isn’t’ (NYT, July 25).
Putin is now holding the whole world ransom for his own personal preservation and that of his diabolical regime.
Biden’s clear-cut message to Putin, his inner circle, the political, economic and military elite, and the Russian people broadly – and that as soon as possible – should be that the US and the West do not aim to destroy Russia, but reach ‘peace with honour’.
The modalities of reaching the target audiences can be achieved by working hand in glove with the opposition groups within and outside Russia.
Analogy of German Capitulation in Autumn 1918
Bergmann suggests that Biden could start off by outlining what a post-Putin Russia could look like, just as US President Woodrow Wilson formulated a vision for postwar Germany in 1918.
After four years of relentless fighting in WW I, one of the many factors that drove Germany to capitulate in the autumn of 1918 was a clear message from the United States that promised Germany a “just peace”.
Wilson’s pledge that Germany could end the war without humiliation and crushing reparations gave German military leaders – the Feldmarschalls Paul von Hindenburg and Erich Ludendorff — something to embrace as they looked for a way out of an unwinnable war in October 1918, and it ultimately played a role in their decision to “initiate regime change in Berlin with the goal of negotiating a less punitive armistice” (Bergmann).
Biden might be able to produce a similar peaceful outcome by appealing to influential Russians within the halls of power – in the governing institutions, military, and the private sector – who could conceivably set the country on a new and hopeful future.
Instead of proclaiming a grandiose vision hailing democracy or a new world order, Biden should articulate practical steps that the US and its allies and partners would undertake to allow Russia to become a respected member of the international community instead of a pariah state – like “a giant North Korea”.
This promise would come with four vital conditions:
- The full withdrawal of Russian forces from all of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea
- A Pledge to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity
- An undertaking to reduce tensions with the West
- The ouster of Putin.
Biden would need to communicate that for Russia to have a path back as a respected member of the international community, it would need to end the war and replace the top leadership in the Kremlin.
The most important audience for this verbal communication would be Russian elites and leading insiders from the military, government ministries, and the private sector.
When and if a new government is installed in Moscow, it would need to be willing to reduce hostilities, restore arms control agreements, and release foreign hostages and Russian political prisoners – such as Alexei Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza.
The new government would also have to be open to repealing the repressive measures that Putin imposed when he started the war, which outlawed dissent, criticism, and opposition.
Should Russia take these steps, the US and the West would agree to roll back sanctions and relax Russia’s diplomatic isolation.
The international community would definitely encourage accountability for those culpable for war crimes, but not collective punishment.
Biden’s Initiative
Biden must paint a portrait of a Russia in the time ahead with “ a future defined by prosperity and connection with Europe rather than poverty and isolation” (Bergmann).
He must make clear that the obstacle to the West’s positive relations with Russia is Putin alone.
Putin has demonstrated in unmistakable fashion that he cannot be trusted and therefore cannot broker a lasting peace.
As far as the West is concerned, as long as Putin leads Russia, they will remain adversaries and sanctions must remain in place.
Putin has been desperate to portray his war as an epic clash between Russia and the West. Biden must be forceful to make it a war about Putin alone.
Influencing the Russian Elite
It can be expected that initially Biden’s and the West’s message will have little impact in Russia. Anti-Western sentiment runs deep in Russian society. Additionally, the Russian state media would also relentlessly block such Western messaging.
However, such attempts at influencing – in the first instance – would be targeting not the general public but the Russian elite.
The Russian elite do owe their status and prosperity to Putin, but they have become restless.
For many, the invasion of Ukraine was a shockingly reckless decision, and now they are feeling the intense pressure of sanctions and economic deprivation.
The Prigozhin mutiny was another demonstration that the big boss has lost his touch.
Those discontented at the centre of power may be willing to take risks for a more hopeful and prosperous future – an alternative to endless war and hardline nationalism.
These frustrated and alienated elites would never had dared to put their necks out until now, but the rebel Prigozhin has shown the way – he almost got to Moscow!
It is now no longer fantastical to imagine various scenarios of a possible insurrection/rebellion/revolt against Putin.
All it needs is just a spark.
Russia is ripe for another ‘implosion’.
Bergmann envisions:
- Midranking military officers, appalled by the leadership of their high command and fearful of a depleted and broken military, could refuse to fight or move to depose their leadership
- Government officials in Moscow or at regional or local levels might see which way the wind is blowing and refuse to protect/support the regime – just as they did nothing to stop Prigozhin
- The troops on the front may decide to take matters into their own hands, i.e. mutiny.
- The public may rally to a Kremlin alternative.
[Peaceful uprisings in Moscow and St. Petersburg may even be enough]
Planting the seed of an idea with the military, the elites, and the public that there is an honourable way to end the war may very well bear fruit.
However, to speed up the process, Ukraine needs battlefield success. Russia must truly believe that the war cannot be won and its position is untenable.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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