* India as a Great Power:
Indo-US Relations in the Context of Sino-American Rivalry
* Russia: Mercenary Leader Challenges Putin
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
It is now evident that US relations with India – the whole spectrum – is now part and parcel of the world-wide US-China competition, which has thankfully not yet reached the stage of a New Cold War.
Sino-American relations are also strongly being impacted by Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
The ‘special’ Sino-Russian relations are influencing in various ways the international politics of Europe in particular, and the world in general.
Most of the developing world or the so-called Global South has taken the stance of neutrality in the Ukraine war, although Russia’s aggression is definitely against the UN Charter and the principles of international law.
For this reason, an attempt by leading members of the Global South or intermediate powers, like Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia to mediate in this armed conflict, has not received any traction.
India is now in a league of its own. It aspires to be a leader of the Global South; but how can it be when it can no longer be considered a member like in the old days of classical non-alignment of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru.
After Narendra Modi’s grandiose visit to the United States and the spate of agreements signed, India is now in a twilight zone.
It can no longer be considered strictly non-aligned – whether in Ukraine or the Sino-American rivalry.
Neither is it a military ally of the United States – not yet!
However, there are now deep bonds of friendship especially on a people-to-people level. The Indian-American diaspora has played a significant role.
Considering that the American political elite and establishment considers the current and future competition with China to be of epic proportions, then the close political, economic, cultural and yes, also military relations with the coming great power India to be most consequential.
With time, these will become even more significant than the so-called ‘special relations’ with the UK or even relations with the European Union (EU) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Not for nothing has the US pivoted to the Indo-Pacific. Here it is confronting the Eurasian powers Russia and China, and in the Western Pacific coming face to face with a resurgent China, the up and coming superpower.
The United States sees India more than any other country as a vital future ally in its confrontation with China.
Biden & Modi Salute ‘Defining Relationship’
Last Year, Russia’s and China’s strongmen Putin and Xi had termed their countries’ relationship ‘without limits’.
Now, Biden and Modi went even a step further.
At the White House South Lawn, after Modi had been accorded unprecedented honours, Biden said: “I have long believed that the relationship between the US and India will be one of the most defining relationships of the 21st century” (AFP/Agence France Presse, June 23).
Modi, India’s most powerful prime minister in decades, did not hold back either. He said that the visit brought a ‘new direction and new energy’ to the partnership with the United States.
Later, addressing both chambers of the US Congress, Modi fully toed the US line by clearly alluding to US concerns on China as he backed a ‘free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific,’ a favourite axiom of the United States.
His further utterance could not be more pro-American and simultaneously anti-Chinese: “The dark clouds of coercion and confrontation are casting their shadow in the Indo-Pacific.”
Modi’s American hosts must have been thrilled by his unequivocal support of the US position vis-à-vis China.
[Nepali leaders and foreign policy decision-makers must now carefully triangulate their policies towards the three great Asian powers – the US (with territories in the Western Pacific and military bases in the Indian Ocean), China and India].
Modis’ Record Ignored
At least six representatives from Biden’s opposition Democratic Party boycotted Modi’s speech, pointing to his poor human rights record.
But Biden ignored the concerns completely, instead highlighting religious pluralism as a ‘core principle’ for both India and the United States and saying democratic values ‘face challenges around the world and each of our countries.’
With this Biden skillfully blunted the attack against Modi and the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India itself, the US and around the world.
Instead Biden returned to his favourite theme of the world-wide rivalry between Autocracies (led by Russia & China) versus Democracies (led by the US and now including India).
Biden has, in fact, put India on the same pedestal as the US itself – a singular great honour.
“The whole world has a stake in our success,” Biden said. “Maintaining our democracies makes us appealing partners.”
[It goes without saying that Nepal cannot be part of this competition].
Modi Defends Himself
Criticizing those who would question India’s democratic character, Modi had the effrontery to claim that ‘regardless of caste, creed, religion, gender, there’s absolutely no space for discrimination.’
The records show that Modi and his BJP have not proceeded thus.
Biden Effusive in Praise
Biden offered full honours to Modi including a gala dinner at the White House.
“Two great nations, two great friends, and two great powers,” Biden said in a toast to Modi.
Among the nearly 400 guests invited to the evening’s candlelit festivities were notable Indian-American business tech leaders, including Google chief Sundar Pichai and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
Indo-American ‘Military-Industrial-Complex’
Earlier, in an agreement hailed by Modi as a landmark, the United States signed off on a technology transfer for engines as India begins producing home-grown fighter jets.
General Electric has the green light to produce its F414 engines jointly with the state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics.
India will also buy MQ-9B SeaGuardian high-precision armed drones.
In another agreement, US chip giant Micron will invest US $ from in India, which is expected to reach US $ Dollar 2.75 billion after contributions from New Delhi.
If not in name, but in actual fact, India has become a junior partner of the United States in its grand design of containing China.
[Nepal cannot on any account be part of this geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic scheme to deter China’s rise. Enlightened Nepalese must control and check every step and move of the country’s foreign policy by the inept, uninformed and uneducated leaders, and be wary of any dent in Nepal’s dynamic non-aligned policy].
The Russian Card
Washington hopes a tighter defence relationship will help wean India off Russia, its primary military supplier – up till now.
Because of its war in Ukraine, Russia is already having difficulties supplying arms and ammunition – ordered long ago. Instead it has itself asked for supplies of other industrial components.
Modi remains adamant in not condemning Russia for its aggression in Ukraine.
However, in a slight change of position and in order to placate Biden, Modi joined him in a joint statement in backing the ‘territorial integrity’ of Ukraine.
Modi has thus been successful in having his cake and eating it too!
Brief Mercenary Revolt in Russia
The greatest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his nearly quarter century in power withered away in 24 hours after Yevgeny Prigozhin, the rebellious mercenary commander who had ordered his troops from the Wagner Group to march on Moscow, abruptly reached an agreement with the Kremlin to go into exile in neighbouring Belarus and sounded the retreat (AP/Associated Press, June 25).
Rapidly Unfolding Events
Early Saturday, Prigozhin’s private army of mercenaries took over Rostov-on-Don, a city over 1,000 kilometres south of Moscow, which runs Russian military operations in Ukraine.
After moving unimpeded into this Russian city, Prigozhin and his Wagner troops were able to advance hundreds of kilometres toward Moscow.
The Russian military scrambled to defend Russia’s capital.
Wagner troops advanced to just 200 kilometres from Moscow.
The Institute for the Study of War said that the Kremlin struggled to put up a coherent response to the short-lived rebellion, and that one reason was likely the impact of heavy Russian losses in Ukraine.
Prigozhin could have reached the outskirts of Moscow if he had chosen to order his troops to do so (AP).
Last Minute Deal
However, a last-minute deal negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered amnesty to Prigozhin and his troops in return for calling off the revolt.
Under the terms of the deal announced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will go into exile in neighbouring Belarus.
The state would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part in the rebellion, while those who did not join in were to be offered contracts by the Defence Ministry.
Putin’s Outburst
Putin had vowed earlier to punish those behind the armed uprising led by his onetime protégé in the strongest language possible.
He had branded Prigozhin a ‘backstabbing traitor’.
However, he too made a swift turnabout.
In allowing Prigozhin and his forces to go free, Peskov said, Putin’s “highest goal” was “to avoid bloodshed and internal confrontation with unpredictable results.”
After Effects
The whole episode could pose a risk for Putin as appearing weak, according to Kremlinogists.
“Putin has been diminished for all time by this affair,” former Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said on CNN.
The Institute for the Study of War said the agreement that ended the crisis “will very likely eliminate the Wagner Group as a Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form, although elements of the organization may endure under existing and new capacities.”
Ukrainian Reaction
Ukrainians hoped the Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army to take back territory seized by Russian forces.
“These events Ukrainian government and the military will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and the military,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London).
Summary: All Politics is Local
Richard Haass, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations surmises that there are more questions than answers when considering the “Prigozhin Incident”.
And there will be just as many questions as to what will come next and after next! (“Home & Away”, June 25).
However, there can still be some tentative observations:
- The events came as a complete surprise to experts, but it can also be argued that something like this was inevitable.
After all, Putin rules with little legitimacy. There are no checks and balances. He rules effectively like a warlord.
What one warlord can do, another can also repeat!
- Putin sees himself not as a latter-day Soviet leader, but the inheritor of the Czarist empire.
- Prigozhin’s challenge has significantly weakened
- It is not clear as yet what a diminished Putin means for the domestic political reality in Russia and the war in Ukraine.
- A demonstrably weaker Putin would not necessarily mean a favourable development.
He may double down and escalate in Ukraine just to demonstrate that he is not helpless.
- It remains to be seen whether Prigozhin’s blistering critique of the war, that it is a truly unnecessary war of choice being poorly executed for the enrichment of a few, gains traction among the rank and file military and the general public.
- Both Ukraine and the United States could potentially influence future Russian decision-making.
Ukraine could articulate its willingness to provide special protections to Russians and allow international monitors in the context of a cease-fire or peace agreement.
The U.S. could state clearly that it would eventually free Russia of sanctions and welcome its re-integration in world affairs.
- China and India also have the potential to shape political developments in Russia.
China could privately urge Putin to find a way out of this impasse and to pursue a serious diplomatic track.
India’s Modi has also been close to Putin [and now very close to Biden] and could act as mediator.
- American and European policy-makers and foreign policy pundits must now explore ways and means to seriously address Russian weakness and its potential consequences, including the security of nuclear weapons.
- In 1987, the then mostly read and discussed historian Paul Kennedy wrote: “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000.”
Kennedy attributed the fall of the great powers to imperial overstretch, over-exposer and over-extension.
Haass argues that Putin’s war in Ukraine is a textbook case of such overstretch – that echoes the Soviet folly in Afghanistan that contributed to the extinction of the Soviet Union.
[He doesn’t mention the American folly in Iraq and Afghanistan].
He writes enigmatically: “History may not repeat itself but it sure can rhyme.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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