- Nepal’s Civil Society Rises Again
- Setback for India’s Hindu Nationalists
- Pakistan on the Brink
- Thai Elections Demand Change
- Turkey: Hopes of Democratic Revival Crushed
- Ukraine Poised for Counter-Offensive
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
The Rise of Protests & Nepali Civil Society
Slowly but certainly, the number of protests, demonstrations and street actions against rampant corruption – and especially the ‘Fake Bhutanese Refugee Scam’ – is on the rise.
The established larger parties which have been involved in the scam are trying their level best to weather out the storm.
It remains to be seen whether further big fishes are caught in the net.
As yet, there is no concerted leadership as to the scope, aim and purpose of the protests, but prominent public intellectuals have started voicing their thoughts and ideas on social media.
Probably the first to take the initiative is Economics professor Alok K. Bohara (University of New Mexico, US), who writes:
“The recent fake Bhutani refugee scandal has exposed the deep-rooted corruption in our government institutions, which is hurting the country’s good governance, development, and international image. Corruption and politics are so intertwined in Nepal that they have eroded the trust of the people in our government institutions and hindered the progress of our country.
The civil society is slowly gathering to launch a campaign and demonstration against this corruption. It is imperative that we come together and support this anti-corruption movement in Nepal.
Let us allow the facts to lead us where they may and demand accountability from our political leaders and government officials. We must work towards demanding reforms to create a better non-partisan anti-corruption mechanism.”
(NNSDEE@googlegroups.com)
Bihari Krishna Shrestha writes: “The whole story coming into public domain and the steadily advancing police investigation seem to have resulted purely by chance and with the people in power not realizing initially that the tentacles of this scam could be so huge and unmanageable for them. By the time they realized it had already become too late.”
Political Science professor Lok Raj Baral (Tribhuwan University) is scathing: “It is not only inhuman but also a crime that needs to be condemned by civilized people.”
Bhikku Ananda is deeply disappointed: “It’s utterly a matter of so called repeated socio-political revolutions, the country and people are repeatedly betrayed, fooled and cheated!”
What is remarkable about the political commentators of this on-line group this time around is the notable absence of members of the so-called ‘higher echelons’ of Nepali society.
The fact remains that the unravelling of this scandal can be a major blow to the utterly unscrupulous Nepali political class.
However, the movement against endemic corruption and poor governance has not yet gathered sufficient momentum – it has yet to form a ‘critical mass’.
The government is controlling the narrative and trying to avoid accountability.
The two main problems are leadership and organization.
Modi’s Ruling BJP Voted Out in South Indian State
State Elections in Karnataka
India’s leading opposition, the Indian National Congress (INC) sprung to victory in Karnataka, a key South-Indian state.
It defeated Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) [both in this state and the centre] very convincingly.
The Congress ousted Modi’s BJP from office in Karnataka, the only southern state where the extreme Hindu nationalist party had held power.
Congress achieved a comfortable overall majority in the 224-seat legislature.
It improved its tally from 80 in 2018 to 135.
It decimated the incumbent BJP which declined to 66 against the 104 it won previously.
The Janata Dal (Secular) [ JD (S) ], which was banking on a hung house bit the dust with only 19 seats.
In the last state election in Karnataka, the BJP had fallen short of a majority in 2018. However, it assumed power a year later by persuading members of the ruling coalition to defect.
Karnataka has a population of 61.1 million people – about the same as the UK – and its capital Bengaluru is India’s tech hub – India’s own Silicon Valley.
Modi’s Hindu-Nationalist Agenda Fails in Karnataka
The BJP had mounted a major campaign in the state with Modi himself visiting to promote its Hindutva agenda – its muscular brand of Hindu politics and society.
At one of his rallies, Modi even praised an incendiary new film that wildly exaggerated the number of Hindu women converting to Islam and joining the Islamic State jihadist group (AFP/Agence France Presse, May 13).
The election result was a clear signal for change.
The BJP has tried hard to grow beyond the Hindi Heartland – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Bihar. It has been stopped in its tracks – at least for now.
The Congress Campaign
Congress campaigned hard on secularism, giveaways of free electricity and rice for the poor, and accusations of rampant BJP corruption and poor governance.
It focused on local leaders and local issues. The election results underlined the limits of Hindutva and the compelling voting power of ‘economic distress’. Consequently, the Congress registered a vote share that it has not seen in 34 years! (Hindustan Times, May 13).
Congress leader, Rahul Gandhi – who has risen to national prominence with his epochal Bharat Yatra foot march from the south to the north of India — told reporters at party headquarters in New Delhi: “The market place of hatred has been shut down.”
Congress, the party of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty, dominated Indian politics for decades but has been in decline for years.
The victory in Karnataka will raise the total number of states it rules to just four.
Turmoil in Pakistan
Pakistan’s ex-prime minister Imran Khan left court premises in Islamabad, a day after the Supreme Court ruled his dramatic arrest on corruption charges was illegal.
Judges granted Khan protected bail, meaning he cannot be re-arrested on those charges for two weeks.
The court also ordered he could not be arrested on any charges filed after last Tuesday until May 17.
Despite the rulings, the corruption charges against Khan still stand.
“The head of the country’s largest party was abducted, kidnapped from the high court, and in front of the entire nation,” Khan told AFP from the court building.
“They treated me like a terrorist,” this had to have a reaction,” he said of the violent protests that followed.
Khan remained within court premises after the hearing Friday seeking preventive bail against other charges which he told the BBC included counts on terrorism, sedition and blasphemy.
A conviction would disqualify the former international cricket star and London high society luminary – and Pakistan’s prime minister from 2018 to 2022 – from standing again for office, possibly excluded for life.
Elections are due to be held later this year.
Khan had arrived at the hearing under heavy armed guard and greeted supporters with a single raised fist.
Speaking during Friday’s hearing, the chief justice said the arrest was unlawful because it took place on court premises.
He ordered that the “whole process” of Khan’s arrest “needs to be backtracked.”
The 70-year-old – who was arrested on Tuesday as he arrived at the courthouse in the capital Islamabad – pleaded not guilty to the charges when a judge formally indicted him with corruption for the first time in the dozens of cases he faces.
Officials say Khan unlawfully sold state gifts [given to him personally by foreign dignitaries] during his premiership, in a case brought by Pakistan’s Election Commission.
Fallout with the Military
“The dramatic saga has significantly escalated tensions between Khan and Pakistan’s powerful military” (BBC, May 13).
Many experts believe Khan’s election victory in 2018 had only been possible with the help of the military, which both parties
Khan later fell out with the army.
After a series of defections from his party and amid mounting economic crises, he lost his majority in parliament.
Since being ousted less than four years into his regular term, Khan has become the military’s most vocal critic.
At the same time, the army’s popularity has also fallen.
Khan’s Party, the PTI
Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party says the charges against him – which relate to gifts given to him by foreign leaders while he served as prime minister – are politically motivated.
Critics say the PTI has been fueling unrest through social media posts calling for protesters to take to the streets, and judges have told Khan that he must condemn the violence and tell supporters to stop.
Khan says he and his party only call for peaceful protest.
Violence & Mass Arrests
However, at least 10 people were killed and some 2,000 arrested as violent protests swept the country. Those protests included an attack at a military commander’s home residence in Lahore, which was ransacked and set on fire.
While last week’s violence petered out after the army was deployed in Islamabad and other areas such as Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhaw, the country remains on edge.
The Government
Pakistan’s current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned: “The perpetrators who take the law into their own hands will be dealt with an iron hand.”
Sharif alleged that judges had favoured Imran Khan, and their ruling had caused “the death of justice in Pakistan”.
Sharif, who took power after Khan was ousted, criticized the Supreme Court’s ruling to free Khan
He further criticized Khan and his party for their inflammatory language and encouraging protesters to take to the streets.
“Imran Khan has divided the nation,” he said.
Future Showdown
The country now seems primed for a “progressively ugly showdown in the days and weeks to come,” read an editorial in Dawn, the country’s leading English language newspaper.
“None of the leaders, political or institutional, who are invested in this tug-of-war appear ready to take a step back,” it said.
Thailand
Role of the Monarchy
In last Sunday’s election, the role of the monarchy was one of the central issues.
Many considered the election as a referendum on whether it should be illegal to criticize the Thai monarchy, in previous times highly revered.
The election thus represents one side of the struggle to determine the role of the monarchy in modern Thailand, the South-East Asian nation of 72 million.
The present King Maha Vajralongkorn, who ascended the throne in 2016, is not as beloved as his father, King Bhumibol Aduladej, who reigned for a whopping 70 years.
The election could also determine whether Thailand, a leading member of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), “will revive its once-vibrant democracy or slide further toward authoritarian rule, with royalists firmly in power” (New York Times/NYT, May 13-14).
Voters Deliver Stunning Win for Reform
Early results indicate the Move Forward party exceeding every prediction to win 151 of the 500 seats in the lower house (BBC, May 15).
It’s now 10 seats ahead of what was the frontrunner, Pheu Thai, led by ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter.
This is akin to “a political earthquake that represents a significant shift in public opinion” (BBC).
It is also a clear repudiation of the two military-aligned parties of the present government, and also Prime Minister Gen.(retd.) Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led a coup that ousted an elected government in 2014.
The government coalition won only 15 % percent of the seats!
Turkey Decides Fate of Future Direction
Like in Thailand, Turkey’s elections on Sunday would be deciding the fate of the future course of the country.
The presidential and parliamentary elections were shaping up to be also a referendum on the long tenure of strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – the country’s dominant politician over the past two decades.
This time around, Erdogan,69, “who has long staved off challengers with a fiery populist style, finds himself in an extremely tight race as he seeks a third five-year term as president” (NYT, May 13-14).
However, confounding all hopes – and all pollsters – Erdogan came within a fraction of a point of defeating his secular challenger in the first round.
He now enters the second round as the strong favourite.
What is at Stake?
The elections are expected to set the future course for Turkey, which is one of the world’s 20 largest, industrialized economies [belonging to the G–20 Group] and a NATO member.
The Turkey-expert, Ms. Gonul Tol said: “If he loses power via elections, I think that will give people a lot of hope that the autocratic surge can be reversed.”
Voters are deeply concerned about:
- The reeling economy.
Last year, inflation was at a record 80 percent, although it has since come down somewhat. People’s purchasing power has been severely eroded.
- The initial slow response to the catastrophic earthquakes in February in south-eastern Turkey.
This left more than 50,000 dead and millions homeless.
People are questioning whether the haphazard disaster management and shoddy construction projects in recent years contributed to the high death toll.
The election could transform Turkey’s geopolitical position.
Under Erdogan, the country’s relations with the United States and other NATO allies have become highly strained. Turkey is practically ‘the odd man out’ in the alliance.
He has hampered the military alliance’s efforts to expand. He has allowed Finland’s membership in NATO, but blocked Sweden’s.
He has strengthened ties with Russia, even after its invasion of Ukraine last year.
Erdogan’s Challenger
A newly unified opposition has put forward a joint candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a retired civil servant.
He has vowed to restore Turkish democracy and the independence of state institutions such as the central bank.
After Turkey’s most closely fought election in decades, a run-off between Erdogan and his main challenger Kilicdaroglu will take place in two weeks’ time, since neither candidate secured 50 % percent of the votes.
Turkey’s Supreme Election Council announced Erdogan is on 49.49 % percent of the vote, with his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu on 44.79 % percent.
Ukraine’s Preparations for Attack Complete?
The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have finished forming the new brigades that will be used in their coming spring offensive according to a statement of the country’s Ministry of the Interior (The Daily Digest, May 14).
In an interview with the state-owned news agency Interfax-Ukraine, a spokesman corroborated that 8 new brigades had been “fully formed” for the coming counter-offensive.
There were plans to create even more brigades for the fight against Russia. “There is a demand for it, and we have the opportunities,” the Ministry of the Interior clarified.
Ukraine’s new brigades total 40,000 volunteers that joined up at a time when Kyiv is finding it more and more difficult to recruit new troops.
Ukraine now has nearly everything it was promised for its counter-offensive; will they succeed?
Situation in Bakhmut
A renewed push on Bakhmut is fueling rumours of a pending Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Ukraine claimed to have retaken swathes of ground near the frontline city of Bakhmut, as Russia reported having repelled an attack along a broad stretch of the front line (AFP/May 12).
Russia ‘which is spearheading Moscow’s attack on Bakhmut, accused the regular Russian army soldiers of ‘fleeing’ from around this eastern Ukrainian city.
Prigozhin insisted that ‘the flanks are failing, the front is collapsing’ in that area and said Russia’s leadership was downplaying the gravity of the situation.
Zelensky Delays: Tactic or Feint?
Ukraine’s President Zelensky, however, said in an interview that Kyiv needed more time before going on the offensive.
“Mentally we’re ready,” he noted “in terms of equipment, not everything has arrived yet.”
“With what we have, we can go forward and be successful. But we’d lose a lot of people,” he added. “I think that’s unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.”
Without doubt, the battle initiative has now gone to Zelensky. As they say, the ball is now in his court. The weather is fine and the ground has hardened – ideal for battle tanks and APCs.
The armed forces are putting the finishing touches to deliver the coup de grace.
The whole country – and the world at large – is waiting with baited breath.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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