By Our Reporter
Signs have shown that the national economy is worsening further. It was evident from the latest trade statistics and the decision of the National Planning Commission to fix the ceiling of the new budget by lowering the budget size.
The country’s trade deficit has reached Rs 825.73 billion during the first seven months of the current fiscal year, according to the foreign trade statistics of the Department of Customs published last week. Although it is an improvement as compared to the same period last fiscal year when the trade deficit was Rs. 1,015.8 billion.
However, the indicators are not good because the fall was due to a decline in both exports and imports during the period.
Imports have decreased by 19.90 per cent during the first seven months of the current fiscal year. Goods worth Rs. 919.16 billion were imported in the review period.
The country imported goods worth Rs. 1,147.46 billion in the same period last fiscal year.
Not only imports but exports too have decreased. Goods worth Rs. 93.43 billion have been exported in seven months of the current fiscal year. Goods worth Rs. 131.65 billion were exported in the first seven months of the last fiscal year.
Due to the increase in the price of petroleum products in the international market, the import of petroleum products has increased significantly during the review period.
In the first seven months of the current fiscal year, petrol was worth Rs. 38.73 billion, diesel worth Rs. 84.61 billion, kerosene worth Rs. 781 million, aviation fuel worth Rs. 12.97 billion and liquefied petroleum gas worth Rs. 33.34 billion have been imported.
Meanwhile, the National Planning Commission (NPC) has prepared a budget ceiling for the coming fiscal year along with the medium-term expenditure framework.
The budget ceiling for the next fiscal year is Rs. 105.43 billion less than the budget of the current fiscal year 2022/23.
According to the NPC, the budget limit has been estimated by analysing various challenges seen in the national economy and their impacts on the economic indicators.
The NPC said that it has prepared and approved the guidance and framework for budget formulation-2079, including the three-year medium-term expenditure structure and the outline of the annual programme for the fiscal year 2023/24.
It said that the guidance and framework have been sent to all the constitutional bodies and ministries and the provincial governments.
According to the medium-term expenditure structure, the government revenue is estimated to increase at a rate of 14 per cent in the next three fiscal years. The size of the budget is also estimated based on the same estimate of revenue growth, said the NPC.
As per a preliminary estimation of the NPC, the total resources of the government for the year 2023/24 will be equal to Rs. 1,688.4 billion, Rs. 1,880.3 billion for the fiscal year 2024/25 and Rs. 2,088.9 billion for the fiscal year 2025/26.
According to the NPC, allocation efficiency has been taken into account while determining the budget ceiling for the next fiscal year.
In the current fiscal year, the government had aimed to keep the consumer price inflation within the desired limit of 7 per cent. But the inflation may exceed 7.5 per cent, according to the NPC.
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