* Nepal: Dismal State of the Nation
* India: Aspiring & Rising Great Power?
* Turkish-Syrian Earthquakes: Aftermath
* Iran’s Forgotten ‘Revolution’
* Putin’s Ukraine War: Final Phase?
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal: Rudderless & Leaderless
Domestic Arena
After the constitution of the new government, there had been some hope that the people would finally find some succor from their myriad woes. But to no avail.
The government is busy only sustaining itself and trying to carry on as if everything is in butter.
In the domestic arena, there is a long way to go before the people’s aspirations are fulfilled.
The mismanagement of the economy under various governments means that the future is bleak.
The government has promised the stars to the people, but is unable to provide basic services.
Thus issuing drivers’ licenses and passports are considered a privilege and not a basic right.
Health care and standard education have become unaffordable for ordinary citizens.
Various governments have been helpless in combatting the global impact of the pandemic, Ukraine war and international supply chains.
The resulting high inflation rate has made it very difficult for ordinary people to make end meet.
This is basically because the government(s) are not concentrating on the main domestic and foreign issues.
Nor do they have the right people, at the right place in these crucial times.
Unfortunately, civil society has been reduced to impotency.
The new political parties and the RPP [National Democratic Party] have still to gain their spurs in parliament and government.
Dynamic Role of the Royals?
The former royals have also been reduced to helpless and hapless onlookers of an unfolding tragedy. They have not been able to take the bull by the horns and utilize the growing sympathy of the common people. They could indeed advance to being the ombudsman/spokespersons of the vox populi vox Dei!
At a time when the political parties and the political establishment are breaking their heads about who should be elected to be President of the Republic, there can be a novel, but intelligent choice – HRH Princess Himani Rajya Laxmi Shah.
This could be an unique opportunity to reconcile all Republicans and Monarchists. The RPP and other smaller parties in parliament could demand this, if need be on the streets.
Nepal’s Foreign Policy in the Doldrums
In Nepal’s foreign policy, we have yet to see any concerted and effective initiatives to place our neighborhood and international relationships on a solid footing.
During the high level visit of India’s foreign secretary, the government was unable to put contentious issues on the agenda.
Instead of trying to play this political card or that, the government should unmistakably follow the path of strategic equidistance between New Delhi and Beijing.
Second, the relations with our neighbours in SAARC should be intensively cultivated.
Third, our relations with the superpower U.S. and other international powers important for our economic development – Japan, South Korea, Germany, U.K., France, EU – are crucial.
Fourth, our relations with the countries where our migrant workers toil – Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia – should be elevated.
The work of our embassies in the above countries are of crucial importance. This means that the ambassador and the diplomatic personnel should be of a high caliber.
India Straddles the East/West & North/South Divides
Writing in Foreign Policy, the prominent columnist C. Raja Mohan, (who is also a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute), argues that it’s now high time to tie India to the West (Feb. 9).
He also contends that India’s geopolitical shift is inexorable and membership in the G-7 would help bridge north-south divides.
However, there are inherent contradictions in his argument.
His views are those of a media pundit and are far more advanced than those of the policy and decision makers in New Delhi.
India’s official stance before, during and after the Covid-19 pandemic has been that of strategic ambivalence, and in recent months nothing substantial has changed.
India may indeed aspire to a greater role in the East-West and North-South divides, but by attempting to be ‘a Jack of all trades, it ends up being master of none’!
Is India part and parcel of the Global South or that of the Highly Developed North? Or is it trying to be an intermediary?
In the emerging geopolitical rivalry between the democratic West [the Transatlantic Alliance, European Union & NATO] and the largely autocratic East [Russia, China, Iran, North Korea], where does India stand?
In a double sense, India is trying to have the best of both worlds, or to use another metaphor, it wants to have its cake and eat it too!
If India joins the West and is accepted in the G-7, it can ipso facto no longer be part of the Global South or speak on its behalf.
But hold your horses! We are still a long way from this fait accompli.
The West is still suspicious of India’s role in Russia’s Ukraine war. It has not condemned Putin’s aggression. In fact, it has profited from Russia’s export of low-priced oil and gas.
Then there is Modi’s domestic contradictions. The West cannot ignore his anti-democratic, Hindu-supremacy agenda.
India’s all-consuming, double challenges vis-à-vis Pakistan and China also act as a brake in its aspired double role.
Aftermath of Turkey-Syria Earthquakes
There have been more than 38,000 dead (and still counting), more injured and complicated rescue efforts ongoing in both Turkey and Syria.
The human toll of Turkey’s massive earthquakes, which also rocked neighbouring Syria is truly harrowing.
There have been anguished reports on the excruciating pain and grief of knowing loved ones are trapped under rubble.
It is, of course, most uncomfortable to conflate such human suffering with politics, but commentators are now asking if this catastrophe will change the political trajectory of Turkey [and perhaps Syria?], a key player in the wider region, fulcrum between east and west and agitated member of NATO (CNN/Fareed’s Global Briefing, Feb.10).
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power himself after a massive 1999 earthquake embittered voters on the previous government (The Economist).
The prestigious newsmagazine speculates if something similar could happen now, with elections slated for May of this year.
Though it also suspects Erdogan may postpone them, in light of the widespread disaster.
It also predicts uncomfortable questions will be asked by the Turkish people and opposition parties about adherence to building regulations under Erdogan’s watch and whether any (or much) of the devastation could have been prevented.
Earthquakes have played a big role in Turkey’s history and are tied up with trust in government.
In the earthquake of 1939 in eastern Turkey, 30,000 people were killed and remains the most destructive in the nation’s history. People still tell stories about the trauma of that earthquake and what happened last week will be remembered for a long time to come.
Blaming Erdogan
Serious questions are being asked about building protocols in Turkey – and whether better adherence to regulations would have prevented damage and death after last week’s powerful earthquakes (CNN/Fareed’s Global Briefing, Feb. 12).
Der Spiegel notes that repeated warnings about insufficient earthquake resilience in Turkish construction practices – including from the mayor of a town devastated last week Monday – and a sense that Turkey has under-invested in relief capacity.
The newsmagazine writes: “Back in 1999, the earthquake in the area surrounding Izmit exacerbated the crisis in the country and was one of the reasons the government failed three years later,” bringing Erdogan to power.
“Erdogan must face the possibility that history is repeating itself.”
At Foreign Policy, Gonul Tol voices outrage: “It wasn’t just loved ones who were buried under the rubble but also promises of good governance, a corruption-free country, and a state that is responsive to the needs of its people.”
Toll continues with the damaging assessment: “Powerful earthquakes kill people, but they are more deadly in countries like Turkey, where building regulations aren’t enforced, unqualified loyalists fill key positions, independent state institutions do not exist, civil society organizations have been wiped out, and the interests of a few are prioritized above all else.”
[Sounds familiar? The above description fits Nepal as well. It is woefully ill prepared for ‘the next big one’!
A Nepalese expert has made cogent and well-thought out suggestions: Dr. Shrijan Bahadur Malla: “Effective Disaster Preparedness: Need of the Nation”, my Republica, Feb. 11).
But who will take notice? Definitely not any of the decision-makers.]
What’s Next in the Ukraine War?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has met with western European leaders last week, showcasing solidarity and raising the topic of supplying fighter jets.
At the same time, new offensives have been brewing in Ukraine’s east.
Russia appears to be ramping up specific offensives and counteroffensives in that region, suggesting an expected spring push by Russia has already begun, but it’s not clear how big that push will actually be.
Zelensky’s Urgency
Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky series of high-profile visits to secure fighter jets shows an urgency to secure support before an expected offensive by Russian forces (Newsweek, Feb. 11).
Zelensky received a rousing reception at the British and European parliaments where he stepped up his calls for combat aircraft that he has been pushing for.
The planes may be a decisive factor for what happens on the ground.
The U.K will begin training Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard fighter jets for the first time CNN reported. But there is no mention yet that the U.K. will provide Ukraine with the aircraft has asked for.
Former British army intelligence officer Philip Ingram said that the timing of Zelensky’s renewed calls for aircraft followed the Ukrainian president’s first focus to get his land force capability upgraded.
Ingram told Newsweek: “To properly support land manoeuver operations, he needs the ability to generate at least local air superiority, a protective air bubble around attacking land forces.”
Once the pilots are trained then the decision to donate aircraft by Western countries would be much easier and completely logical.
Polish President Andrej Duda said as a NATO member, any move by Warsaw to give Ukraine F-16 jets had to be a “joint decision” among the alliance, which will be concerned about being pulled into the conflict and war with Russia itself.
Top US General Supports Sending Ukraine Fighter Jets
In spite of the hesitancy among the top echelons of decision-makers in the U.S. and Europe, Ben Hodges, former commanding US general in Europe has told Deutsche Welle that the West should indeed provide Ukraine with fighter jets and long-range precision weapons.
If just the current support level is maintained, Ukraine would undoubtedly win.
However, it could take several years, and many more innocent people would be unfortunately killed.
Gen. Hodges implied that time is of the essence. Ukraine should utilize the momentum of the current situation to make short work of the Russian aggression.
Why is Iran Backing Russia?
Iran’s domestic and external developments have captured global attention lately, as a brutal crackdown has suppressed a dramatic wave of public unrest that began last autumn.
Separately so has Iran’s provision of drones to Russia, for the latter to use in the assault on Ukraine.
In a Foreign Affairs essay on Iran’s political state of play, Vali Nasr puts the trends in context, seeing Iran’s clerical regime looking to Russia for friendship – and perhaps weapons and military technology – as it travels further down the path of international isolation, with nuclear talks much dead.
Clearly, the two countries hold a “common grudge against the United States.”
According to Hamidreza Azizi, affiliating with Russia does make sense, adding to the shared link of authoritarianism (The Cairo Review of World Affairs).
But there are contradictions for Tehran, too, Azizi points out.
Siding with Russia departs from a post-1979 policy of aligning neither with the global west or east.
However, it also means “taking sides with the aggressor.”
This is also the conundrum around which India is dancing!
Given its own experience in war with Iraq, Azizi writes, that’s not Tehran’s natural inclination. “This is why, eight years after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, Iran still does not recognize that region as part of the Russian Federation.”
Iran: What Has Happened to the Revolution?
In Iran, the clerical regime brutally cracked down on protesters in recent months. But even though the wave of protests has subsided, the spark of resistance is still growing in Iranian society and has not been crushed (DW/Deutsche Welle, Feb. 10).
In public, Islamic Republic official insists that everything is under control.
The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei even decided to pardon tens of thousands of prisoners, including many who were incarcerated during the anti-government protests.
There is no official information on the number of demonstrators being held in the country’s overflowing jails.
However, human rights organizations say that by mid-December more than 18,000 people had been arrested for taking part in the protests across the country.
More than 500 protesters have been killed, including at least 63 minors. Many, if not most, were shot in the head.
The latest wave of demonstrations was sparked by the death in mid-September of 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini in police custody.
Despite the violent suppression of the protests, they continued for at least 100 days, according to a report by the prominent sociologist Saeed Madani (written in prison and smuggled out).
Madani, a 61-year-old professor from Tehran University, was arrested in May 2022 for saying, in an interview about protests against inflation and food shortages that were taking place at the time: “These protests are directed against the whole political system, and they are recurrent.”
“The latest wave of protests, supported by different social strata and ethnic and religious minorities, has left a deep mark and changed society,” Madani wrote in his analysis. “The courage to resist and solidarity among the oppressed have grown across all generations.”
Many people, especially women are now engaging in civil resistance.
Katajun Amirpur, a professor of Islamic Studies who specializes on Iran says: “For example, many women have stopped wearing headscarves. The main thing that has changed is that there is now a greater sense of solidarity. This is reflected in the cry: ‘From Zahedan [in the south-east on the borders of Afghanistan/Pakistan] to Kurdistan [in the north-west on the borders of Turkey/Iraq], my heart belongs to Iran.’ That’s a very nice development.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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