By Our Reporter
With the surprising marriage between the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist Centre), the rival communist forces, which left no stone unturned to defeat the candidates of each other party in the November 20 elections last year, the national politics has returned to pre-December 20, 2020 position, the day when the then Prime Minister KP Oli dissolved the House of Representatives unconstitutionally leading a way for the split in the Nepal Communist Party formed by unifying the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist Centre).
Then Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda were both the chairmen of the NCP and Oli was leading the government with a two-thirds majority. But after December 20, 2020, the two leaders turned enemies and Prachanda managed to pull down the Oli-led government in seven months in July 2021 by making Sher Bahadur Deuba the new PM.
When the two parties managed to win nearly two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives in the 2017 elections, it was widely expected that political stability could be maintained in Nepal, but it could not happen, and the government failed three years after its formation.
Now, again the two big communist parties have been together and formed a cocktail government if we borrow the words of CPN (Unified Socialist) senior leader Jhalanath Khanal. It is a cocktail because it has radical communists like the Maoist Centre, pro-royalist forces like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, an anti-federalist force like the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the Madhes-based parties. As such, it is difficult to predict how long the government will survive. If the two non-communist forces withdraw their support, it can collapse. If one of the two communist parties deserts the coalition, the government may collapse.
Moreover, the fate of the government depends on the relations between CPN-UML’s KP Sharma Oli and Maoist Centre boss Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda. The previous unification between them did not last long when Oli reportedly violated the gentleman’s understanding that Prachanda would be allowed to lead the government for the latter two and a half years. Even the Deuba-led coalition collapsed when Deuba denied abiding by the gentleman agreement reached between him and Prachanda that the latter would lead the post-poll government.
As such, one cannot say how long the present coalition will survive. Even the big parties have already faced difficulties in selecting the ministers as many senior leaders are hesitating to join the government as ministers because a junior leader like Rabi Lamichhane is appointed Deputy Prime Minister. Deputy Prime Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha had already expressed his dissatisfaction that he was made to work under his junior—Bishnu Paudel of the CPN-UML.
It will not be a big surprise if the UML causes failure of the policy and programme of the government in May this year or if Prachnanda again forges an alliance with NC in a year. Again, external forces, especially India can cause the fall of the government at any time because it is widely believed that the CPN-Maoist and the CPN-UML came together in the mediation of China.
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