*Nepal’s Elections *India’s Role in Ukraine *Chinese Protests *Ukraine War
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal’s Democracy at the Crossroads
The Nepali electorate has sent mixed messages and has resulted in many long faces.
First, it has demonstrated that it is firmly behind the two main parties – the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal—Unified Marxists-Leninists (CPN-UML).
Second, there is also the intense wish that these two parties get their act together and hand over power to younger leaders.
Third, a substantial part of the electorate does want change – for the betterment of the people in general.
This explains the rise of new fringe parties, which are not yet ideologically rooted and must find their way through the morass of Nepali politics.
Fourth, the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP/National Democratic Party), ideologically on firm ground, could gain somewhat, but there was no essential breakthrough.
It is a force to reckon with, but still no force majeure, unless it allies with other smaller parties and independents.
Fifth, alliance politics has come to stay. Without cobbling a sustainable alliance, government formation will be extremely difficult, and good governance even more onerous.
For the sake of the nation and with current history in mind, a rainbow coalition may very well work, at least in the short term.
However, a government under the leadership of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, self-styled Prachanda, should be avoided at all costs. Nothing good can come of it from the mischief-monger in chief, who is not to be trusted to uphold the nation’s vital national interests.
India’s Role in Russia-Ukraine War
There is speculation among South Asian experts that New Delhi’s so-called ‘unique position’ on the world stage could see Prime Minister Narendra Modi become a key peacemaker in Russia’s war in Ukraine (Al Jazeera).
With all due respects to the experts, this conjecture seems a little far-fetched as it is riddled with domestic and external contradictions unique to India’s position.
It has been argued that India’s ‘unique position’ – as a friend of both Russia and the West – could see it emerge as a key mediator.
However, New Delhi’s contrived balancing act on the war in Ukraine is still continuing, although becoming very difficult to maintain.
As a key player in international politics with aspirations to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, India should be defending the rules-based international order and especially the purposes and principles of the United Nations.
But India has abstained from condemning Moscow’s aggressive actions [in violation of international peace and security] at the United Nations – a contradictory position that the government of PM Modi says is in line with India’s foreign and defence policies.
On November 14, a motion in the United Nations General Assembly calling for Russia to pay Ukraine reparations for the damage and loss of life caused during the war passed with 94 votes for, 14 against [including China] and 73 abstentions [including India and Nepal and most of the Global South].
However, in an act of blatant aggression, forbidden by the UN Charter, no country should be sitting on the fence.
In a November interview with Times Now, an Indian media outlet, India’s Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar superciliously argued that he is not trying to cater to the demands of “other people”.
Jaishankar haughtily went further: “Sometimes, I have lived with things that you [the West] did. Now, live with it [India’s brazen foreign policy],” he said.
Actually, as the war intensifies resulting in global energy and food shortages, there is a need for India to re-evaluate its favourable stance towards Russia.
Modi made a half-hearted move at the September summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan when he told Russian President Vladimir Putin: “I know that today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.”
Modi made another perfunctory attempt at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia: “we have to find a way to return to the path of ceasefire and diplomacy in Ukraine”.
But as usual, there was still a wide gap between words and deeds!
India is making a show of criticizing Russia indirectly, but at the same time increasing economic cooperation and sitting on the fence when the UN castigates Russia. Modi wants to have his cake and eat it too!
India will attempt all sorts of contortions in its foreign policy after taking on the G-20 presidency from Indonesia from December 1 and hosting the next G-20 summit in 2023.
Chinese Protests: A Long Time Coming?
Some China observers are of the opinion that the widespread protests in the country have been a long time in the coming – they required only a spark for discontent to unfold.
The former New York Times bureau chief Howard W. French writing in Foreign Policy insists: “It is wrong to see this crisis as solely the result of a spark from Urumchi.”
In this capital of the south-western province of Xinchiang, more than 10 people lost their lives as a result of a deadly apartment fire and slow rescue operations related to a Covid-lockdown.
There was an outpouring of grief and sympathy – as well as, disgust at the authorities.
As anti-lockdown and anti-government protests unfold across China, French and others have suggested the remarkable authority amassed by national leader Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have helped generate the unrest now on display.
Geremie R. Barme, writing in China Heritage expands: this “crisis…is the kind of black swan event of which Xi Jinping and his comrades have been fearful for years. They have been far less willing to consider the danger they pose to themselves, something summed up in the Qing-era expression…‘the repressive behavior of officials incites popular rebellion.’”
Economic Dimension
Other experts see economic pressures, worsened by Covid-19 and the government’s stringent lockdowns, as major contributing factors.
In connection with the police response to the protests, a Foreign Policy special correspondent refers to the long-simmering malaise among a younger Chinese generation “stressfully coping with the country’s highly competitive job market and education competition.”
Thus, since 2020, such downhearted slogans have become widespread among young Chinese:
- ‘lying flat’: meaning seeking peace by giving up on ambition;
- ‘let it rot’: an expression that giving up would be more beneficial than trying;
- ‘run-ism’: the art of leaving the country.
The Dam Has Burst
There have been protests and demonstrations in China after the (in)famous Tiananmin brutal crackdown, but they have been restricted to local grievances.
Reuters reports that Chinese police have already begun to seek out demonstrators, but given the rarity of open protest in China, the significance of this mass movement is remarkable and hard to ignore.
China-expert at the University of Cambridge, William Hurst tweeted: “What’s happened in the past 24 hours [as of early December 1] is novel in that protesters have appeared on the streets in multiple cities with apparent knowledge of what is happening in other parts of the country.”
Yan Long of the University of California also tweeted: “The outburst of emotions on display is a cognitive cue signifying to Chinese people that their grievance is widely shared,” and that “such cognitive liberation implies the possibility of civil disobedience and change.”
Xi’s Daunting Challenges
Regarding where things are actually heading, another China pundit, Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says that this protest movement is still “far short of anything that threatens Xi’s hold on power or the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power…The protesters have couched this, to some extent, around norms about freedom, but really what they want is just their normal lives back” by virtue of a lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.
The problem for Xi is that China’s population is particularly vulnerable to Covid-19 – especially the fast spreading Delta and Omicron variants. The country is thought to have low rates of immunity, as infections have been scant and as Beijing decided to shun all foreign-made mRNA-based vaccines.
Xi could end his so-called “Zero-Covid” policy [zero or extremely low infections] “fast, or he could end it safely, but he can’t do both,” Kennedy predicts, anticipating a kind of race between the government’s ability to lift restrictions and protesters’ growing demands.
Russia Playing Games All Over the Place
As well as the war in Ukraine, Russia is using hybrid warfare in different countries to advance its interests, warns Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the Munich Security Conference (DW/Deutsche Welle, Dec. 2), and Germany’s former ambassador to the UN.
In his opening speech at the Munich Leaders Meeting in Bucharest, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis pointed out that the Black Sea region has long been the main target for Russia’s aggressive behavior. The president’s wish to draw more attention to the region was actually now being heard by partners.
Crimea
Heusgen was of the opinion that Crimea was clearly part of Ukraine, and Ukraine had every right to regain and reconquer its own territory. Basically, it was Ukraine’s decision.
The fact is that Russia had been very aggressive in the occupied territories and had been responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of people.
The West had the responsibility of fully supporting Ukraine in reconquering Crimea.
However, the Economist of London has a different opinion. It writes that Ukraine has enjoyed recent momentum in its defensive war against Russia’s invading army, but “an attempt to bring Crimea back under Ukrainian rule would be a costly military endeavor – and would cause splits with allies that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cannot afford to alienate.”
Moldova
Regarding Moldova sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine [which is neither an EU or NATO member], Heusgen was also very forthright.
He said Moldova, in spite of being one of the poorest countries in Europe, had taken many refugees from Ukraine.
It was worthy of receiving full support from the West – financial and otherwise, especially since Russia was also playing games here.
Russia was trying to blackmail Moldova by raising the price of gas arbitrarily and attempting to bring it within its sphere of influence [Russian-backed separatists already occupy a sizable chunk of territory on its eastern flank].
The Global South
Heusgen regretted the fact that many people in the developing countries were praising Russia and even demonstrating in favour of Russia where the most important investor, the most important trade partner was the EU.
Thus, a major challenge for the West was that many countries of the Global South regarded the Russia-Ukraine conflict in an equidistant manner.
The West had to make clear that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine was not a continuation of the East-West conflict, but a flagrant violation of international law.
Russia had clearly committed a breach of civilization.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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