*Nepal Elections *Pakistan in Crisis *Iran’s New Revolution *Moldova Under Russian Pressure
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
A New Beginning in Nepal?
With the conclusion of parliamentary and provincial elections and the near completion of counting of votes, most Nepali commentators and analysts have put a positive spin to the outcome.
The political scientist and The Kathmandu Post (TKP) columnist, Dr Lok Raj Baral (professor emeritus at Tribhuwan University and former Nepali ambassador to India ) writes: “democracy in Nepal seems to have become stronger with the popular quest for alternatives to change the status-quo-oriented rulers” (Nov. 27).
Another TKP columnist, Amish Raj Mulmi is of the opinion that Nepali voters “have rejected the status quo and put their trust in a new generation of representatives far removed from the current state of affairs…misgovernance has given way to a new optimism” (Nov. 25).
It does seem possible that both commentators are running far ahead of events.
As the saying goes: ‘the proof of the pudding is in the eating’ and as the counting now stands, the “Status Quoists” may still eke out victory and form the government or the main opposition.
The smaller and new political parties may have made significant inroads by the infusion of new and young blood – but they will still be relegated to the role of secondary opposition.
There is indeed the outside chance that both political alliances – that of the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-Maoist Centre and CPN-Unified Socialists and that of the CPN-UML – do not achieve absolute majority in parliament and need the support of outside parties and independents.
At the very least, Nepal’s status as an ‘electoral democracy’ has been established.
But the road to a full-fledged, functioning democracy – of, by and for the people – will be long and hard and will demand much of both would-be leaders and the electorate.
Pakistan’s Grave Political Crisis
After losing office as a result of a no-confidence vote in April this year, Imran Khan has been leading a two-pronged campaign – against both the new civilian government of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), as well as, the all-powerful military that had once raised him to power.
After an assassination attempt on him early November, Khan has doubled down on his unprecedented confrontation with both the political and military establishments, deepening the already critical tensions.
He has even accused an army general of colluding with the government to kill him.
He is expected to continue his interrupted “long march” to the capital Islamabad on November 26 from the twin city of Rawalpindi.
Khan strives to return to power as the country faces multiple crises — economical, political and environmental — and has now united the dominant traditional political elites and the military against him.
Originally considered an outsider and maverick, he and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) were cultivated by the military, being considered more pliable than the two established political parties – PML-N and the PPP.
The honeymoon lasted until 2021 when Khan interfered in the military’s domain and disapproved the appointment of a new intelligence chief. The military promptly withdrew its essential political support [which all happens behind the scenes].
This spring, Khan’s tenuous ruling coalition fell apart, and he was ousted as prime minister.
He fulfilled an historical tendency: No elected Pakistani prime minister has ever served the full term in office!
Khan promptly alleged that his political opponents and the military had colluded with the United States to overthrow him.
This conspiracy theory lacks evidence, but his devoted supporters wholeheartedly believe him and accompany his rallies continuously.
The Pakistan expert, Madiha Afzal writing in Foreign Affairs states that this alone demonstrates his formidable street power: “his base cuts across geography by drawing on disillusionment with the current political class” (Nov. 24).
Khan’s chief antagonists lack this kind of broad-based support.
The PPP’s voter base is concentrated in the southern province Sindh, and the PML-N draws the majority of its support from Punjab, where it has been losing ground to Khan’s PTI.
A veteran “consummate populist”, Khan has political momentum on his side, winning many by-elections. The current government is clearly struggling.
The question is whether Khan is overreaching himself by taking on the military too. He has even attacked the army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, arguably the most powerful man in Pakistan.
Pakistan’s New CoAS
Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif has named the country’s former intelligence chief, Lt.Gen. Syed Asim Munir to succeed Gen. Bajwa as the new army chief as of November 29 (AP/Associated Press, Nov. 24).
Lt.Gen. Munir was director general of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) when Khan was in office. He fired Lt.Gen. Munir without explanation.
According to the defence minister, the nomination was “based on merit, law and according to the constitution”, and he hoped that President Arif Alvi [a former member of Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf party] would not make it “controversial”, but endorse the key appointment without any delay.
As a precaution, Sharif had already promoted Lt. Gen. Munir to the rank of four-star general and could, therefore, not be retired this week.
Iran’s Continuing Protests & Brutal Repression
The continuing uprising against the cold-blooded, sadistic and monstrous Islamist dictatorship of Iran has entered a new phase and the callous regime [with great similarities with neighbouring Afghanistan] is doing all it can to survive.
This is the gist of a collective write-up in the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel (Nov. 25).
Analysts are now debating how long the self-interested mullahs, backed by the brutal Revolutionary Guards can cling to power.
According to numerous witnesses and victims, the barbaric regime has drastically ratcheted up the relentless pressure.
The ‘state terror’ is everywhere, with only a fraction of it making it into the international media.
Despite the state violence, people in Tehran and elsewhere in the country are continuing to take to the streets.
However, the fight against the Islamist dictatorship is no longer finding its expression only in street protests.
The protesters – the nascent revolutionaries – are finding innovative ways to combat the mullahs and their henchmen.
For one, the uprising – the New Revolution – has lasted longer than most thought possible – the clerical rulers, the international community and even the protesters themselves.
Secondly, the shape of the resistance is changing and adapting to the repression. There are fewer mass protests, but more “flashmobs” – spontaneous demonstrations, sometimes restricted to a single block.
The seething anger has remained intense and is engulfing the whole nation. The uprising is now defining their everyday lives.
Increasingly, the rebellion is becoming more militant, including the use of Molotov cocktails.
The Orientalist Reinhard Schulze, based in Bern, Switzerland, believes that the character of the Iranian nation is now changing.
The population, he says, believes less and less in the promises made by the Islamic Republic and its institutions, which has been power for 43 years.
People are now demanding a more liberal state model in which the rule of (secular) law should play a stronger role.
There is a significant shift underway in Iranian society as a whole. Schulze is convinced: “The regime’s legitimacy is eroding. They are no longer recognized by their own people.”
The people are hoping against hope that the mullahs might one day be swept from power, and are currently demonstrating considerable courage in their endeavor.
In the meantime, the regime is escalating its terror in the countryside and the cities. It’s using snipers and large-caliber machine guns, frequently mounted on pickup-trucks – always inventing new methods for spreading fear.
Normal life on the streets has been extinguished.
There is hardly any avenue for reconciliation – the original compact in the revolution against the Shah now lies in tatters.
Afshon Ostovar, a professor of national security affairs in Monterey, California, says we are witnessing a generational revolution, the younger generation against the regime, and “The undoing of the Iranian regime has begun.”
It may be a banal fact, but with every new young regime victim, the so-called Supreme Leader is losing the support of the victim’s myriad relatives – siblings, cousins, aunts, uncles, parents and grandparents!
Putin Attempts to Destabilize Ukraine’s Neighbour Moldova
Moldova is one of the smallest countries in Europe and was once part of the Soviet empire.
It is sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine and is land-locked with a population of just 2.5 million – even less than that of Kathmandu.
With a per-capita income of around 5,100 Euros, it is one of the poorest countries in Europe.
It fully identifies with European traditions and culture and has aspirations to become a member of the European Union (EU). In fact, together with Ukraine, it has been granted ‘candidate status’ by the EU.
However, together with Ukraine, Vladimir Putin considers Moldova to be part of “Greater Russia’’, the Fatherland of Russian civilization [distinct from European civilization, purer and not corrupted]; or at the least belonging to Russia’s sphere of influence.
Russia has even occupied the eastern part of the country – Transnistria – bordering Ukraine.
The West’s weak response to Russia’s “humanitarian intervention” in Georgia [another former Soviet state] to back separatists in two regions – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – in August 2008 emboldened Putin to eventually invade Ukraine.
Ever since declaring independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has been almost continuously ruled by pro-Russian political forces.
Then, in November 2020, voters elected Ms. Maia Sandu, a Harvard graduate and former World Bank economist as prime minister. She was later elected president.
She removed pro-Russian officials from the state apparatus and, after Russia’s attack on Ukraine sided with Kyiv.
Moscow, on the other hand, is doing everything to de-stabilize the country. Russian company Gazprom halved natural gas supplies to Moldova and the Kremlin has thrown its full support behind Sandu’s pro-Russian opponents.
Without help from the EU, the Sandu government could fall this winter and be replaced by a pro-Russian regime, with consequences for the entire region (Der Spiegel).
Pro-Russian politicians – the openly and proud quislings — are seeking to intensify the pressure on the government by organizing protests against the high energy prices.
“Moscow’s campaign against the Sandu government is a prime example of hybrid warfare,” according to the Institute for European Policies and Reforms, a think tank based in the capital Chisinau. “Instead of tanks, the Russians are using energy and disinformation.”
Europe’s Support
EU-President Ursula von der Leyen promised Moldova 250 million euros in aid during a visit to Chisinau in November.
At a bilateral donor conference in Paris between Germany and France last week, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pledged 32.3 million euros in additional aid from Berlin.
French President Emmanuel Macron said his country would provide extra aid to the tune of 100 million euros.
“It is Putin’s intention to blackmail countries dependent on it through energy supplies,” Baerbock said. “But this won’t work. Moldova has friends and partners in the EU.”
For Moldova at least, there is no risk of a blackout through ‘General Winter’.
And the ‘Russian Bear’ will be kept at bay – temporarily!
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
Login to add a comment