*Nepal *US Midterms *Ukraine *Rise of Indonesia
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal’s Parliamentary and Provincial Elections
With an estimated voter turnout of only 61 % percent, the Nepali electorate has not been very enthusiastic in the elections this time around.
The dissatisfaction has not only been about the ‘old guard’ politicians – the septuagenarians at the helm of affairs for decades at a stretch.
The discontent, anger and disapproval extend to the whole political system.
Loktantra or people’s democracy has degenerated into a ‘sophisticated’ party kleptocracy.
Thus, the movement “No, Not Again” was gaining in traction.
Secularism, Republicanism and Federalism were imposed upon the people of Nepal without a proper referendum and this has come back to bite the leaders.
In order to move forward, we have to closely follow the people’s aspirations – not the leader’s greed and thirst for power – and introduce vibrant political participation from the grassroots upwards.
The people have to own governance as such and experiment with digital democracy and learn from the practical experience as in Taiwan.
The time ahead is fraught with expectation, but also danger – as the election results are expected to be mixed, just as the electorate is completely confused and despondent.
Besides the intricacies of forming a new government, the new dispensation will also consist of a new president, vice president, speaker, deputy speaker – all to be freshly elected.
The Himalayan Republic needs complete and intense cleansing, but can we expect a Hercules to emerge to rid the (mythological) Augean stables of the waste and corruption accumulated?
U.S. after Trump
There are now changes a foot in the Republican Party [also known as the ‘Grand Old Party’ or GOP and identified by the colour ‘red’] after the mid-term elections did not bring about a ‘Red Tsunami’ but rather a tiny wavelet.
In spite of the disappointing results [for Republicans], Donald Trump has announced he will seek re-election to the presidency in 2024.
Some important Republican figures have come out against him.
Many Republicans had supported Trump through dubious escapades, like his proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. and his refusal to accept defeat in 2020.
Even if some criticize him now, and even if his favoured candidates [for the House, Senate and governorships] fared poorly in this month’s midterm elections, Trump could still win the GOP presidential nomination in 2024, according to The Washington Post columnist and CNN-host, Fareed Zakaria.
“Republican leaders must act to purge their party (and country) of extremism,” he writes. “Even after the midterms, Trump and Trumpism will not vanish.”
Putin’s War: Kherson Defeat, the Beginning of the End?
According to The Economist of London, Ukraine “has momentum” in its defensive war against Russia’s invading army.
The vital question now is: what will come next?
“The question is whether Kherson represents the last gasp of Ukraine’s spectacular offensives or…another milestone in the steady collapse of Russian lines,” the newsmagazine writes.
“There is no doubt that Russia’s army is in poor shape…But Ukraine faces some of the same limitations. It is running short of many different types of ammunition.”
The Economist in line with pundits calls on the US and European allies to supply larger quantities [and more sophisticated weapons].
To some extent, the war’s next phase will depend on what kind of weather Ukraine sees this winter, according to think-tank expert Michael Kofman, but it’s likely that “major offensives will slow down.”
Contemplating extremes of weather, Kofman suggests morale could collapse among some Russian units, or Russia’s efforts to mobilize more troops could indeed provide a boost to
As Russian forces retrench, Kofman says, Ukraine will seek to deny them “a four month break to fix all of the problems they have.”
Missile Falls on NATO Territory: Repercussions?
Last week, a Russian missile strike against Ukraine saw a stray missile land in NATO member Poland, killing two people.
U.S. officials said the Russian-made missile (from the Soviet era) had been fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.
The fundamental fact remains that Polish nationals were killed by a Russian-made missile as a direct result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and in particular, its decision to move the action away from the front, where the Russian army is struggling, to target infrastructure across Ukraine (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Nov. 16).
The Russian missile strikes on November 15 – the biggest against civilian infrastructure since the start of the war – were Moscow’s savage revenge for the loss of the key city of Kherson in the south, from which it was forced to withdraw.
The death of innocent NATO civilians at home as a result of Russian missile strikes could become a turning point in this war, like the 2014 downing of Flight MH 17 (Malaysian Airlines) and its international passengers over occupied eastern Ukraine.
The Case Against Negotiation
Russia’s war – including its inhuman targeting of civilian and vital infrastructure centres – has taken an immeasurable human toll.
That devastation is among the reasons Ukraine has not sought to negotiate an end to the conflict: “If Russia can attempt to destroy Ukraine, occupy 18 % percent of its territory and get away with it thanks to fatigue or fear of escalation in the West [including extending the war to NATO territory and/or Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons], a green light is given to the Kremlin to try again later” (The Kyiv Independent).
Addressing the G-20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, by video last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky laid out a 10-point peace plan, which notably did not include territorial concessions to Moscow.
US Legislature: A Change of Guard
There will be a change of guard in the lower house of the U.S. Congress, but according to most analysts, it will not be a change for the better.
Last week, one of the more significant American leaders of this millennium – the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (Democrat-California) – announced she would not seek to continue her leadership of House Democrats, as Republicans take control by a razor-thin majority.
A Washington Post editorial calls Pelosi “one of the most consequential House leaders in the country’s history.”
Pelosi biographer Molly Ball writing for TIME states: “Since winning her first leadership position in 2001, she has ruled the House Democratic caucus with an iron fist and a velvet glove, keeping her fractious party in near-lockstep during historically tumultuous times.
Criticized by some conservatives as a West Coast leftist, Pelosi is described in a CNN op-ed by David Axelrod (himself an Obama adviser) as a disciplined master of coalition politics, noted by former House Democratic campaign chief and Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel (currently US ambassador to Japan) as hewing more closely to her Baltimore-politics upbringing.
“Republicans who disagree with Mrs. Pelosi on practically everything can still learn from her how to effectively wield power, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) writes in an editorial: “There’s no denying that Mrs. Pelosi has been an effective House leader, the most powerful Speaker in decades. Were Republicans paying attention?”
Pelosi did not hesitate to show her disdain for the antics of then President Donald Trump – even demonstrably tearing up his ‘State of the Union’ speech on camera.
She has also demonstrated how a powerful leader can exit from power gracefully.
Indonesia in the Limelight
This South-East Asian country has again come to the limelight for staging this year’s G-20 summit in Bali.
Indonesia has had a troubled political history in the modern era.
General Suharto ousted the state’s founder Achmad Sukarno in 1967 and established a 32-year-old dictatorship.
Sukarno himself was one of the founding leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which had its origin in the Bandung Conference of 1955, which promulgated the Panchsheel or “Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence”.
Indonesia’s economy and politics came into prominence during the mayhem of the 1990s when a crony-capitalist system collapsed amid the Asian financial crisis, causing the downfall of the Suharto dictatorship.
A quarter of a century later, Indonesia matters once again in world affairs.
It is the world’s largest Muslim-majority state (followed by Pakistan), it’s the third-biggest democracy (after India and the U.S.) and its fourth-most-populous country (after China, India, U.S.).
It is also the world’s 16th largest economy.
With 276 million people spread across thousands of islands that stretch from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific, it is a key player in the strategic contest between the United States and China.
And like India and Brazil and other emerging markets, it is adapting to a new, fluid world order in which globalization and Western supremacy are in retreat, according to the Economist, which also concedes that perceptions often lag behind reality.
Consequently, the country’s influence could increase in a spectacular manner for various reasons, according to the Economist:
- The Economy.
Indonesia is the sixth-largest emerging market by GDP (after China, India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey and followed by Mexico, Poland, UAE and Thailand), and in the past decade has grown faster than any other US Dollar $ 1 trillion-plus economy, except for China and India.
A source of dynamism is digital services, which are helping create a more integrated consumer market, with over 100 million people collectively spending US Dollar $ 80 billion a year on everything possible.
Another economic catalyst is Indonesia- specific. With a fifth of global reserves of nickel, used in batteries, the country is a vital link in electric-vehicle supply chains.
It solicits capital from both sides of the US-China divide, and is an arena in which Chinese and American digital firms and investors compete directly.
- Symbiosis of Democracy & Economic Reform
A second rationale for Indonesia’s strong prospects has been its unique way of combining democracy with economic reform.
Reflecting the traumas of the 1990s, a pluralist political system has developed that emphasizes compromise and social harmony.
- The third explanation for Indonesia’s
growing power and leverage is geopolitics.
Its location, size and resources make it a pivotal location in the Sino-American superpower contest.
It sits astride the Indian and Pacific Oceans and commands all the entrances/exits of the vital trade and strategic routes – the Malacca Strait (between Sumatra and Malaysia) and the Sunda Strait (between Sumatra and Java).
The United States Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) – with India, but without Indonesia – is, therefore, blunted.
Reflecting a tradition of non-alignment that goes back to the 1950s, Indonesia strives to be neutral. India has abandoned ‘non-alignment’ in all but name.
- Leadership Qualities
Joko Widodo, who has been president since 2014 has ideally adapted to the Indonesian situation.
His relaxed and unruffled demeanour has helped him master crises at home, where he rules through a sprawling coalition which has co-opted many of his opponents.
As his organization and captaincy of the G-20 Summit demonstrated, he seamlessly took on the role of convener and peacemaker in international diplomacy – in the grand tradition of non-alignment and dynamic neutrality.
“Jokowi”, as the Indonesian president is fondly known to his admiring fellow citizens, is remarkably the only international leader to have met and interacted with Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky this year.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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