By P.R. Pradhan
The 20 November election is at our doorsteps. The ruling five-party alliance has claimed for bagging a two-thirds majority very easily and running the next government lasting five years full term. However, they are suspicious of vote transfer. No doubt, the NC will be the largest party, yet, the success of other Left parties in alliance depends on vote transfer.
Even in the worst situation, Nepali Congress has expected for bagging a minimum of 60 seats from the first-past-the-post voting. The maximum seat expected by the NC is 88 seats if vote transfer will become effective.
UML will be the second largest party, whereas, the Maoist Center will be the third largest party.
NC has given candidature in 92 electoral constituencies. From proportional elections, it will add 40 to 42 seats further.
UML’s size may reduce compared to the 2017 general elections. In the 2017 elections, UML bagged 80 seats from the direct election (FPTP). This time, the number can be reduced to 40 to 50 seats. However, from the proportional election, the UML may add 40 to 45 seats.
Nevertheless, analyzing the voting patron of the local elections, where, UML had bagged 34 percent of votes and the party has aimed at an increase of six percent additional votes, from which, it has expected to bag a majority government.
The Maoist Center may bag 25 seats from the direct election (FPTP) and around 25 seats from the proportional election.
JSP may emerge as the fourth largest party, however, its size may decline compared to the 2017 election.
The Unified Socialist Party may get victory in 9 to 10 seats through the direct election, however, it may not cross the 3 per cent threshold from the proportional election.
RPP may win a minimum of three seats from the direct election (FPTP) and also cross the threshold adding 3 to 6 seats from the proportional election.
Nepal Majdoor Kishan Party and Samyukta Jana Morcha cannot cross the threshold of 3 percent, it is analysed.
It has been analysed that NC candidates will be benefited enormously from the five-party alliance but the Left parties will enjoy less benefit from the alliance as it is expected that around 30 percent of votes will not be transferred for the candidates from other parties. Especially, the NC voters, expect from those dedicated party workers, may not vote for the Left candidates.
Supreme leaders Sher Bahadur Deuba, K.P. Sharma Oli, Prachanda, and Madhav Nepal are sure to be elected but senior leaders Jhalanath Khanal of the Unified Socialist and Subhas Nembang of the UML are in the red zone.
Foreigners’ interests:
Especially the Indians have become active on the eve of the 20 November elections. Indian diplomats are meeting party leaders and also the candidates from NC and Maoist Center.
Indian interests are to create a split among the Left parties and continue the present alliance, which is favourable for India in creating political instability and fulfilling its interests.
The present alliance leaders are more friendly to India than another immediate neighbour China.
UML has already announced that Oli will lead the government if UML will form the government.
In the five-party alliance, Prachanda has expressed the desire to become the prime minister. Also, Deuba’s close aides are saying that Deuba will continue to lead the government. Perhaps, an agreement for becoming the prime minister turn by turn between Deuba and Prachanda is likely. The next government will also be led by the present alliance, as India is keen to continue the present alliance, say sources.
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