- Nepal’s Local Elections
- Sri Lanka on the Mend?
- State Elections in Germany
- Putin’s Imperial War
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Preliminary Observations on Nepal’s Local Elections
The counting of votes in the local elections is on, but some preliminary observations are in order. The local elections are the second time after the new dispensation, i.e. the establishment of the secular federal democratic republic.
It was in a sense a mini referendum on the functioning of federalism per se.
Because of several factors, it has become clear that federalism has been a dismal failure. The continued habit of the politicians at the centre to dictate policy at the local level has not functioned.
Above all, the centrist diktat in local development has been a dismal failure. The people have realized that development must start at the grassroots level and the local people must own it.
For this very reason, the local elections – regardless of the results and who come out on top – will have repercussions on the state/provincial and national levels [the very use of the word ‘province’ in normal parlance shows that ‘federalism’ is in the doldrums].
Again, detached from the results, there has been some turmoil in the electorate.
There has been great dissatisfaction, even anger at the (non)performance of the established major parties. Regardless of how they perform now, they will be very anxious regarding the provincial and national (parliamentary) elections.
The absolute sensation has been the emergence of Balendra Shah (popularly known as ‘Balen’ to his supporters), as the bright new star in the political firmament.
As an independent mayoral candidate in the Kathmandu Metropolitan City, he is running neck and neck with the more favoured candidates Srijana Singh (NC/Nepali Congress and joint candidate of the ‘Gang of Five’) and Keshav Sthapit (CPN-UML).
Balen came out of nowhere like a shooting star and is the hope of millions of young Nepalese. If he plays his cards right, he could play a crucial role in ending the utterly corrupt oligarchic gerontocracy – regardless of whether he wins or loses.
The rise of the dynamic Balen illustrates that politics can be full of surprises. Moreover, the denizens of the erstwhile ‘Emerald Valley’ are seemingly not so stupid and/or sheepish, and arrogant vis-à-vis their Madhesi compatriots. This applies especially to the so-called Arya high-castes originally from the Western Hills.
The up to now have been very disappointing for the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party under the dynamic leadership of Rajendra Lingden, another rising star with great potential.
This is because the RPP is the only established party with genuine national and bona fide democratic credentials.
Lingden will probably hold a powwow with trusted advisers to chart the way forward for the coming provincial and parliamentary elections.
However, it does seem necessary to plan strategically and put its hitherto core agenda of a constitutional Hindu Monarchy on the back burner. Currently, the Nepali people are more concerned with bread and butter issues rather than grand-national agendas.
Lingden was on the right track when he underlined the need for grassroots development during his election campaign. At the same time, the evils of the current dispensation must be exposed relentlessly.
Damage Control in Sri Lanka
A nationwide curfew was fully lifted Sunday to allow Sri Lankans to celebrate the Buddhist festival of Vesak which commemorates the birth, enlightenment and death of Gautama Siddhartha, the Buddha (Reuters, May 15).
Sri Lanka’s embattled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa swore in four new cabinet ministers last Saturday in an effort to ensure stability until a full cabinet was formed in the Indian Ocean island nation engulfed in an economic and political crisis (AP/Associated Press, May 14).
Strangely and counter productive all four ministers belong to the president’s own [and the Rajapaksa clan’s] Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna Party. This is not going to come off well with protesters.
This came two days after President Gotabaya R. had appointed five time former Sri Lankan PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, after his predecessor – the president’s own brother Mahinda R. – resigned Monday following violent attacks by his supporters on peaceful anti-government protesters.
His resignation automatically dissolved the cabinet, leaving an administrative vacuum.
Sri Lanka’s new prime minister said the economic crisis that has brought misery and unrest is “going to get worse before it gets better” (BBC, May 14).
Appealing to the world for more financial help, he said “there won’t be a hunger crisis, we will find food.”
Wickremesinghe described the Sri Lankan economy as “broken”, but his message to Sri Lankans was to “be patient, I will bring things back.”
His appointment has largely been seen with dismay, as he is seen as too close to the dominant Rajapaksa family.
He promised that he was “going to change all the policies of the Rajapaksa government.”
He called on the international community for help. “We need your assistance for a year, whatever we get from you we will repay. Help us do it. We are the longest and oldest democracy in Asia” [whether this will be music to India’s ears?].
Sri Lanka’s economy is in freefall. Food, medicine and fuel have run out or become unaffordable.
It is the island nation’s worst economic crisis since gaining independence from Britain in 1948.
Wickremesinghe, 73, is already holding discussions with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Reasons for Sri Lanka’s Malaise
At the heart of Sri Lanka’s economic woes is that the country is heavily reliant on essential imports but has been burning through its foreign currency reserves it needs to pay for them [Nepal has also been haphazardly importing unnecessary and luxury goods and rapidly depleting its foreign exchange].
Over decades, the island nation of 22 million people had built a bloated state sector and elaborate post-civil war construction projects.
The economic stress increased dramatically as international pandemic travel restrictions dried up tourism dollars.
Then came a disastrous ban on chemical fertilizers as the government insisted on organic farming at a crucial time when climate change was already threatening harvests and food security.
Rajapaksa Political Dynasty & the Arrogance of Power
Above all, it was the family autocracy of the Rajapaksa clan for over two decades that brought the country to ruin.
The clan was once empowered by a triumphant Buddhist Sinhalese nationalism after a brutal [but successful civil war], but were exposed and doomed by what their own allies call incompetence and extremely faulty decision-making.
One brother, Basil the finance minister, ‘controlled everything’, but ‘knew nothing’, according to a former minister, other officials and diplomats (NYT, May 16).
Insiders describe “the root of the crisis as the impunity that the political and military elite enjoyed after a civil war rife with accusations of crimes against the minority Tamils” (NYT).
Germany: Chancellor’s Party Suffers Bitter Defeat in State Elections
In a major blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD), voters backed the opposition conservative Christian Democratic Party (CDU), in an election in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), Germany’s most populous state (DW/Deutsche Welle).
The Green Party [also a part of the governing coalition] meanwhile more than doubled the number of votes they received.
Preliminary results showed the party of former chancellor Angela Merkel receiving 35.7 percent of the vote to 27 percent of the second-place centre left Social Democrats.
In Germany’s federal system, state lawmakers hold considerable amount of power and the NRW election was considered an important bellwether for Chancellor Olf Scholz and his ruling SPD.
NRW Election Results
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 35.7 % percent
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 27
The Greens 18
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 5.6
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 5.5
Others 6.1
Around 13 million people were eligible to vote, making it the biggest election in Germany this year and one of the most important outside of the general election.
The state is home to major cities – Cologne, Bonn [the former capital of West Germany], Duesseldorf, Essen and Dortmund – and the result is seen as a key indicator of the political mood in Germany.
The current state premier Hendrik Wuest of the CDU, took over the position from Armin Laschet last year, after the latter stepped down following his failed attempt to replace outgoing Angela Merkel as German chancellor in last year’s general election.
New Coalition Talks Expected in NRW
The CDU had been ruling NRW in coalition with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP), but that coalition is no longer viable.
The CDU does have a mandate to govern, but it would have to win over the left-leaning Greens to have a majority government [35.7 + 18.1 percent.]
The Greens have clearly been elevated to the role of ‘kingmakers’ after achieving their best national result last September which placed them as minority partners in the national-level ruling ‘traffic-light’ coalition with the SPD and the FDP.
Such a ‘traffic light’ coalition could also be possible at the NRW state level [27 + 18.1 + 5.5 percent], given that the Greens are closer to the SPD ideologically and would have a better chance to push through climate-friendly policies in the state.
‘Every cloud has a silver lining’ and such a coalition outcome could serve as a palliative for Scholz and the SPD.
Scholz has the same problem as Joe Biden of the U.S. He has pushed through epoch-making initiatives, but the wonderful message is not getting through to the people at large, or is being overshadowed by lesser alleviating news and prominence.
He’s also new to a job that demands very much. As leader of the world’s fourth largest economy and a key player in the European Union, and now also as a major power in world affairs, he is bound to rise in stature and prominence – as have most German chancellors.
As the unparalleled Bard has written:
“Some men are born great,
some achieve greatness,
and some have greatness thrust upon them.”
Putin’s War Must End Soon
Putin’s imperial war against Ukraine has gone on for too long. There has been too much death and destruction in the country and the Ukrainian people have suffered alone too much. The Western countries and the international community are dilly-dallying to a great extent. They must act resolutely and immediately to prevent irreparable damage to Ukraine’s physical infrastructure and its costly human resources.
In a perspicacious op-ed in The New York Times, the former British ambassador to Belarus, former head of the Economic Section at the British Embassy, and currently senior fellow for Russia at the prestigious International Institute for Strategic Studies [British research institute (think tank) – a world leading authority on global security, political risk and military conflict], Nigel Gould-Davies has chastised the Western powers for much talk, but little resolute action.
They have tirelessly condemned Putin’s horrendous act of aggression and declared their support for Ukraine, but “as united as they have been in their outrage, they have been vague about their goals” (NYT, May 13).
Above all, the West is acutely unclear about how it wants the war to end. According to Gould-Davies, Western policy has largely been focused on outcomes it wants to avoid rather than achieve.
Thus, it wants to prevent:
- A Ukrainian defeat that allows Putin to install a puppet regime in Kyiv.
- Russia’s resort to weapons of mass destruction [WMD], especially nuclear arsenal [of which Russia has the most in the world].
- Expansion of the war beyond Ukraine, especially a NATO member.
Logically, any result that leaves Russia better off than it was before the war would be a resounding victory for Czar Putin – even if this falls far short of his original goal of conquering all of Ukraine.
First, such an outcome would vindicate both Russia’s belligerence and its horrific abuse of human rights.
It would also pave the way for a third Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It would also damage the security and credibility of the West.
Second, a diminished Ukraine would be permanently weakened, especially if Russia consolidates in the Donbas, or even much worse, extends its control over Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline.
Such a weakened Ukraine would not be an asset either for the European Union (EU) or NATO.
If Russia gains territory, it will be in a stronger position to bargain on vital issues: Ukraine’s status, abductees sent to Russia and international sanctions.
Gould-Davies regrets profoundly that European states [and of course, the United States] seem content to watch the two sides slug it out in a war of attrition for months or even years, until they reach mutual exhaustion [and Ukraine is reduced to ashes!].
To wait patiently for a crippling stalemate to define the contours of a peace settlement is to favour Russia.
Prevent a Russian Victory: Partial or Complete
Thus, a Russian victory – partial or complete – must be prevented at all costs to avoid short and long term repercussions – for Ukraine, Europe and the world.
“The West has to guarantee that Russia is worse off than it was before the invasion” (Gould-Davies). This would be the result, not of emotion, but naked realpolitik.
Western policy must ensure that Russia gains no new Ukrainian territory and continues to face severe sanctions until it is ready and willing to fundamentally change its policy vis-à-vis Ukraine.
A New Marshall Plan for Ukraine
This June marks the 75th anniversary of the Marshall Plan, inaugurated at the end of World War II, when most of Europe lay in ashes.
It revived an exhausted Europe, restored its confidence and helped contain Soviet power and aggression and restore the confidence and security of Ukraine.
This would entail the restoration of its full sovereignty and territorial integrity [comprising all land at the collapse of the Soviet empire] and the reconstruction of its war-torn economy.
The West Must Abjure Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail
Currently the West is constrained by intense fears of Russian escalation.
American and European politicians who should know better, have fallen prey to Russia’s reckless but vague nuclear threats.
Since they are mere country politicians – and not yet statesmen (stateswomen) – they have failed to realize that Russia’s sabre-rattling merely reflects its acute lack of other options.
After all, Putin’s aggressive, imperial war was exposed Russia’s inherent weakness in several domains – conventional military force, military leadership, especially the nexus between tactics and strategy, information warfare, cyber-power and economic resilience.
Consequently, weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are now its only claim to geopolitical greatness. Russian leaders’ flawed reasoning ignores the terrible possibility – not probability – of mutually assured destruction [MAD].
Unfortunately, the US and European leaders are calmly looking at repeating the grave mistakes of the Bosnian War, Europe’s bloodiest post WW II conflict.
Then, at the outset, a leading European politician had declared that “the hour of Europe has come” in 1991.
However, the conflict was allowed to drag on for another gruesome three years and cost nearly 100,000 lives.
Time is of the essence: “Weakness does not make an irrational threat more credible” (Gould-Davies).
Finland & Sweden to End Neutrality, Join NATO
Sweden has decided to follow neighbouring Finland and apply for NATO membership, ending more than 200 years of military non-alignment because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (AP/Associated Press, May 16).
Putin, Russia’s paramount leader said there was no problem with either country, so there was no direct threat from the NATO enlargement.
However, the expansion of (NATO) military infrastructure into these territories would certainly provoke ‘our’ response, Putin told the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
This was a clear (new) red line set out by Russia.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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