Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang in Kathmandu to Repair Relations
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi really took the time to clear the air of any bilateral Sino-Nepalese misunderstandings and bring mutual relations to an even keel.
For the foreign minister and state councillor of world power to spend more than three days in a neighbouring country shows the importance attached by China to Sino-Nepalese relations.
Wang’s visit also shows that Beijing is very keen to reassert its influence in South Asia [after the pandemic], which extends deeper than Washington’s. This will hardly change after the visit of U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland. After all, Sino-Nepalese relations are at a completely different level!
China’s Foreign Ministry heaped praise on these very cordial relations: “Nepal should become a shining example of cooperation between China and South Asia,“ [!].
In this Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s government had an important role. After the storm in a teacup of the MCC-Nepal Compact ratification process, he successfully debunked the notion that he is unduly pro-American and has gone off the path of Nepal’s traditional foreign policy.
At least he demonstrated that Nepal is willing and able to demonstrate that it will receive development aid from all quarters without fear or favour. This is in line with its traditional policy of international cooperation in the development sector, as well as, its foreign policy of dynamic non-alignment, which allows it to judge pressing international issues on their merits.
Thus, unlike India and China which abstained [as also Pakistan and Sri Lanka], Nepal [like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives] voted with the overwhelming majority in the latest UNGA resolution demanding civil protection and humanitarian access in Ukraine; while also criticizing Russia for creating a “dire” humanitarian situation resulting from its invasion.
China and Nepal signalled that there are now no impediments to developing and strengthening bilateral relations. As with India, these are unique and “special’, without being a strategic partnership. And these will remain cordial as long as the two Asian giants do not unduly interfere in Nepal’s internal affairs.
Pakistani PM Khan in Hot Water
Imran Khan, a former captain of Pakistan’s successful national cricket team, came to prominence and entered politics by establishing his own political party.
He came to national power in 2018, after the leaders of the country’s two mainstream parties – Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) — were badly discredited by accusations of large-scale corruption.
Most local political analysts say the country’s powerful military establishment had supported Khan’s rise to power, but that the generals have now become completely disenchanted with his leadership (Reuters, March 25).
During the latest power struggle between Khan and the mainstream political parties, the military has indicated it would remain neutral, leaving it to the political parties to decide Khan’s fate. This is, more or less, the death knell for Khan’s political career.
Last Friday, March 25, Asad Qaisar, the speaker of Pakistan’s parliament adjourned a motion of no-confidence in PM Khan provoking opposition accusations he was buying time for his party’s leader to muster support after a spate of defections from his party.
The motion will now be tabled this Monday after which seven days of debate will take place before an actual vote.
The current political turmoil comes as Pakistan faces a recurring economic crisis, and Khan’s government is banking on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release the next tranche of a US Dollar $ 6 billion rescue package to shore up dwindling foreign currency reserves.
Opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif from the PML-N took aim at the speaker of the lower house for adjourning the no-confidence proceedings.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, leader of the rival PPP, described the speaker as acting as a “personal servant” of the prime minister.
In recent weeks, more than 20 lawmakers deserted Khan’s government, leaving him short of the minimum 172 that he needs for a simple majority in parliament.
It was expected that Khan’s supporters would use the time to persuade some of the turncoats to return to the fold.
Wang Yi Seeks to Normalize Sino-Indian Ties
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was on a whirlwind tour of South Asia last week to stabilize relations in the region.
He first visited Pakistan and Afghanistan and went on to India, where he was first rebuked for remarks on the disputed state of Kashmir, claimed by both India and Pakistan. China has in the main backed its close ally Pakistan.
India made clear that ties with China could not be normal until the troops pulled back from each other on the disputed borders “Pradesh. However, Beijing struck a conciliatory note during a meeting of their foreign ministers in New Delhi (Reuters, March 25).
India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said after his three-hour meeting with Wang Yi: “ I was very honest in my discussions with the Chinese foreign minister, especially in conveying our national sentiments.”
Jaishankar, who is fluent in Mandarin and a former ambassador in Beijing, added: “The frictions and tensions that arise from China’s deployments since April 2020 cannot be reconciled with a normal relationship between the two neighbours.”
Wang was extremely conciliatory without being specific: in an appropriate “The two sides should put the differences on the boundary issue in an appropriate position in bilateral relations.” It was not clear whether the two countries agreed to mutually pull back their troops from the contested border.
He played to the Indian ego by virtually recognizing India as a great power underlining that China and India should work together to promote peace and stability around the world.
Wang also met PM Narendra Modi’s national security adviser, Ajit Doval, who also pressed him for a de-escalation at the border.
Wang also stressed that China respects India’s “traditional role” in the region [of which most countries in the region are very wary, to say the least] and “The whole world will pay attention when China and India work hand in hand.”
This may have been unilateral fulsome praise, but in the immediate Ukraine crisis, both countries have not been very promising in the international community of nations.
Russia, the Mutual Friend
Wang and Jaishankar also discussed their nations’ approaches to tackling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Both of us agreed on the importance of an immediate ceasefire, as well as a return to diplomacy,” Jaishankar said.
If the two countries are really that concerned about the current situation of Ukrainian in Ukraine, why do they not press for such an “immediate ceasefire” with strongman Putin and with appropriate resolutions in the UN Security Council/General Assembly?
The fact is that India and China both consider Russia a close friend and have rejected Western calls for condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Russia still insists on downplaying as a “special military operation,’ which, in fact, is “the most brazen illegal war waged by one sovereign state against another since World War II” (Onna A. Hathaway) and absolutely in clear violation of the core obligation in the UN Charter, which prohibits the “use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state,” (Art. 2.4).
Putin’s Ukraine War Possibly Entering Dangerous Phase
President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine could possibly be approaching a new, potentially more dangerous phase, according to military experts (AP/Associated Press, March 25).
More than a month of fighting has left Russian forces stalled by a much smaller and outnumbered foe but in no way inferior or overwhelmed.
Putin is now left with stark choices:
- How and where to replenish his spent ground forces
- Whether to attack the flow of Western arms to defensive Ukraine
- At what cost he might escalate or widen the war, i.e. from a bilateral to a continental war.
The Ukrainian defenders are showing new signs of confidence, whereas the invading force struggles to regroup.
The shortcomings of Putin’s forces have become evident: ill-prepared, poorly coordinated and surprisingly stoppable.
It is estimated that Russia has lost between 7,000 and 15,000 combatants – potentially as many as Russia lost in a decade of war in Afghanistan. The cowardly regime has kept this from the general public.
The Russians have definitely lost ground in recent days and a major Russian breakthrough is highly unlikely.
In the meantime, Ukrainian resistance and resolve are just stiffening.
Putin launched his ill-fated war in defence of the statelets of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and now he is claiming that his primary goal has been achieved.
Is this a case of ‘smoke and mirrors’ con trick, or is Putin ready for the negotiating table? Only the greatest C-in-C of modern times knows.
US President Joe Biden did not mince matters by stating that “For God’s sake” Putin “cannot remain in power.” This was later clarified by the White House and the Secretary of State that this did not mean “regime change”.
To further complicate matters, as Biden uttered these words in Poland not far from the Ukrainian border, Russia bombed three important targets in Lviv, in western Ukraine not far away!
Philip Breedlove, a retired Air Force general and former top NATO commander in Europe from 2013 to 2016 said Ukraine may not win the war outright, but the outcome will be determined by what Zelenskyy is willing to accept in a negotiated settlement (AP).
With the war’s outcome in doubt, so too is Putin’s wider goal of overturning the security order that has existed in Europe since the end of the Cold War and the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The human tragedy unfolding in Ukraine has overshadowed a great worry across Europe [and the world] that Putin could by miscalculation if not by intent, escalate the conflict by using chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine [WMD] weapons of mass destruction. He may also attempt to punish neighbouring NATO countries for their support for Ukraine by attacking them militarily.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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