Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal: How to Manipulate Elections
Whether they like it or not, Nepal’s political parties now have to face the people – to receive a fresh mandate from the electorate. After two years of the planetary pandemic Covid-19 and lousy governance, it is anybody’s guess how the people of Nepal will react.
In the general elections of 2017, the people of Nepal gave a whopping, nearly two-thirds majority to the Communists with their electoral alliance of the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre, which then went on to build their unified Nepal Communist Party (NCP).
This was a total dud as far as good governance was concerned.
The main opposition party, the Nepali Congress (NC) absolutely unexpectedly by a strange development of events and out of the blue – a deus ex machina happening – was presented the reins of government on a silver platter.
After a brief period of government, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba now makes some very outlandish claims. In his address to the nation last Friday, he claimed that his government was committed to strengthening the lower tiers of government and holding parliamentary, provincial, and local elections within a year.
However, he did not stipulate the exact dates for the three tiers of the federation. The fact is that the dates are being manipulated for the convenience of the coalition partners in government.
It is also most unfortunate that the Election Commission which should be impartial and non-partisan is interfering in the pre-election process. It is demanding that the RashtriyaPrajatantra Party (RPP/National Democratic Party) change its election symbol (cow) and remove its platforms of the ‘Hindu State’ and constitutional monarchy from its election manifesto.
This may have been a trial balloon, but it has to be taken very seriously. It is a crude attempt to change the level playing field. It is also a sure sign that the main political parties see a grave threat in the rising RPP and its new dynamic leader RajendraLigden.
The State of the Nation: Absolutely Rosy?
After six months of leading a government that was as weak as it was ineffective, PM Deuba had the effrontery to baldly claim that the government’s performance was moving in the right direction, whereas the vehicle of government just had too many drivers and was going in no direction at all!
Then, he had the audacity to claim that the gains made by his government within a short span of time had prepared the base for political stability, development, good governance and prosperity! Do he and his cohorts really believe their own whopping lies? Only the head of a tinpot, failing state with a pseudo-democratic structure could make such a claim.
It seems Deuba was in the high mood to continue with his false claims. Thus, he continued with his deception in that he alleged that since he took on the mantle of government, the economic sector has witnessed a rapid expansion. Magicians must be at the helm of state affairs. It remains to be seen whether he and his henchmen in government can hoodwink the voters too. There is no doubt that Deuba, Prachanda and Makune have succeeded in ‘fooling all of the people, all of the time’. In this, K.P. Sharma Oli is not far behind.
Two other points are of import. He also contended that the government had enough foreign currency to pay for the import of goods for up to six to eight months. Actually, real economists and not witch doctors have been warning that the nation’s foreign currency has reached dangerously low levels, the government is pursuing a lop-sided import policy, remittances are declining and earnings from the tourism sector are far off.
Deuba also made the fabrication that his government had taken the initiative to procure fertilisers through a government-to-government process so that farmers could get fertilisers on time. The reality looks quite different.
The government’s utter disregard for the people’s welfare and its carelessness and ineptitude is shown by the very simple fact, that it cannot even provide Paracetamol tablets to the suffering Nepalese people.
There is every reason to hope that all the main political parties – or money-generating political machines – will be punished by the discerning electorate in the next elections, at every level.
Local Elections: Bone of Contention
The ruling parties of the coalition government are now united in their efforts to shift the local elections from the spring of 2022 to autumn/winter 2022/2023, come what may.
They are not concerned that this could have dire effects on local governance and the supply of vital services to the grassroots. They are only very much cognizant of their election prospects and their future political relevance – if any.
Until now only the main opposition CPN-UML and the ShekharKoirala faction of the Nepali Congress are backing the spring 2022 date(s) for the local elections, but it should be possible to organize a broad-based coalition in its favour.
“Cautious Optimism” in Ukraine Conflict
After a new round of high-level security talks between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva, the U.S. and Russia have agreed to further diplomatic talks to defuse the conflict in and around Ukraine (DW/Deutsche Welle, Jan. 21).
Though expectations for a breakthrough were low, both diplomats were keen not to highlight their acute differences. Blinken referred to the talks as “frank and substantive”, and Lavrov said they were “constructive and useful. Blinken went so far as to suggest that U.S. President Joe Biden would be ready to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, if that would contribute to resolving the conflict.
Russian Demands
The Kremlin wants NATO to ban Ukraine and former Soviet block countries [Warsaw Pact] from joining the U.S.-led military organization.
Russia also called on NATO to scale back its activities in Eastern Europe.
Lavrov hinted that the West coming to terms with these demands could diffuse tensions.
According to Oleg Ignatov, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Russia, the negotiations will continue until Russia wants to withdraw from them. The West had not yet made any fundamental concessions to Russia. If Russia bluffs, the negotiations could go on for a long time and then by demanding a lot, Russia will be satisfied with non-fundamental concessions, for example on Ukraine.
Possible Scenario according to U.S. Expert
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman [former Director for European Affairs at the National Security Council and currently Senior Fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies] and Dominic Cruz Bustillos [Research Associate at Lawforce] have come to the conclusion that a full-scale Russian offensive employing land, air, and sea power [in the Black and Azov Seas] on all axes of attack is the likely resulting scenario [Foreign Affairs: “The Day After Russia Attacks,” Jan. 21, 2022].
Russia would establish air and naval superiority swiftly. Russian ground forces would then advance toward Kharkiv and Sumy ib the northeast, and others based in Crimea and the Donbas [occupied by pro-Russian militants] would advance from the south and east respectively.
Russian forces in Belarus [in the north] are directly threatening the capital Kyiv, thereby pinning down Ukrainian forces that might otherwise move to reinforce the east and south. These forces could advance on Kyiv to hasten the government’s capitulation.
An Unprecedented U.S. Response?
Vindman/Bustilos argue that regardless of whether Russia opts for a more limited ‘incursion’ or a broader ‘invasion’, the consequences it faces from the United States and its allies and partners must be unprecedented, as the Biden administration has already warned.
Hope & Determination in Ukraine
Michal Baranowski, the German Marshall Fund’s director in Warsaw, was in Ukraine and described the atmosphere in Kyiv as filled with hope and determination to fight if diplomatic negotiations failed.
Ukrainians from all walks of life are eager to find a solution. Nobody wants another war, but Ukrainians are ready to fight if there is any Russian invasion and many citizens have even volunteered to train in order to protect their country.
However, Ukrainians were not very happy with Biden’s ‘slip of the tongue’ or outright gaffe/blunder at the White House News Conference about Russia’s actions: “It’s one thing if its’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do.”
But ahead of the Geneva talks, Biden made amends by underlining that any Russian invasion would be met with a “severe and coordinated economic response”. Blinken reiterated this stance after meeting Lavrov in Geneva.
European Union & United States: Unity of Purpose?
With the U.S. keen to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, the European Union (EU) is also very interested to be part of the discussions.
Addressing members of the European Parliament earlier last week, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the next few weeks must lead them to finalize a European proposal building a new security and stability order, (they) must build it among Europeans, then share it with (their) allies in NATO and then submit it to negotiations.
But the German Marshall Fund’s Baranowski thinks the EU wanting its own approach would not be fruitful. “The EU has not been a very present actor throughout this crisis. For everyone in Ukraine, President Macron’s proposal is actually counterproductive because we are in a moment where we need western unity and the EU cannot go away on its own path.”
Vague Threat of Sanctions
Tensions between Washington and Moscow have also brought back the idea of sanctions against Russia as one way to mitigate the crisis in Ukraine.
Yet after meeting Russia’s Lavrov, Secretary Blinken said that a written U.S. response to Russia’s demands were now the next step on the table. “We’re not waiting to take action to counter Russia. We’ve been engaged in extensive diplomacy around the world. But at the same, we’ve embarked on a path of defence and deterrence. These things are not mutually exclusive.”
The very high stakes in the three-dimensional chess match between the grand masters of diplomacy continues.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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