Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal: PM Deuba Attempts Breakthrough in MCC
The main opposition party, the CPN-Unified Marxists-Leninists (UML), in a show of strength, has been obstructing the working of parliament.
At the same time, it was during K.P. Sharma Oli’s tenure as prime minister that the then finance minister Yubaraj Khatiwada registered the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), the US Dollar $ 500 million U.S. grant, in parliament to be ratified in July 2019. Since then, it has not moved forward at all.
Even making excuses/justifications/pretexts with regard to the Covid-19 pandemic, not to act on such an important subject – pro or contra – reflects very badly on both Nepal’s parliamentary system and the execution of its foreign policy.
It is, therefore, to be welcomed that PM and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba met with K.P. Sharma Oli in an effort to find a way out of the morass – to end the obstructions in parliament and to proceed with the ratification of the MCC.
In parliament, the protagonists and opponents of the outright grant can have their say. It should be judged on its merits – on the wording, as well as, the substance.
Unfortunately, the debate outside of parliament – on the streets and in social media – has not been substantive or realistic. It has been ascribed ulterior motives – which cannot be read in the actual text of the bilateral agreement. It is as if we are talking about ‘alternative reality.
Diehard opponents of the MCC agreement are tirelessly repeating untruths in an attempt to make them stick. It is the phenomenon of loser Donald Trump and the Republican Party endlessly repeating the Orwellian ‘Big Lie’ that Joe Biden and the Democrats manipulated the U.S. election process like some autocrat, say in Belarus, Kazakhstan, to capture the presidency.
The opponents are also acting as if the MCC will bring the country and the Nepalese people into U.S. bondage – which it will not!
The ‘government’ or ‘establishment’ Communists oppose the MCC tooth and nail, but are not at all clear what they actually oppose. They demand amendments but are not willing to spell out what they actually want to be changed.
Like all good Communists, they have started believing their own lies and – with other illogical opponents – have fallen down a strange rabbit hole where fact and fancy collide!
As a developing country, we should welcome such help to develop our infrastructure. And US Dollar $ 500 million are not peanuts!
And when these are completed, our anxious compatriots can rest assured that there will be no American soldiers lurking under the bridges and towers of electricity transmission lines. Nor will there be US observation posts near the Sino-Nepalese border with powerful lens, etc. trained on the other side. Nowadays, satellites do a better job! Nepal will not be an outpost of American ‘neo-colonialism’ or ‘neo-imperialism’.
Unfortunately, many Nepalese have not learnt from history or heard about Prithvi Narayan Shah’s contribution to the foundational foreign policy of equidistance. A dynamic policy of non-alignment in the 21st century means that we accept help from all sides, but are beholden to none.
Accepting development aid under China’s ‘Belt & Road Initiative’ [which has not materialized until now] does not mean that we are aligned with China against India and the U.S.
Similarly, accepting the MCC grant does not imply that we are part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain China. As the next-door neighbour of China, we never could contemplate such a stupid move.
The main problem is that most of our politicians are unable and unwilling to distinguish between their selfish personal and party interests and vital national interests. The MCC is in the interest of the nation – no question about that.
Bottom Line: The MCC in no way detracts from Nepal’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Kazakhstan Crisis
The largest of the Central Asian Republics, Kazakhstan has a population of only 19 million but is the world’s 9th largest country area-wise.
It sits at the crossroads of Eurasia, in a geo-political very strategic location.
Strategic Location
Kazakhstan located between Russia [north and west] and China [east] and sharing borders with three other ex-Soviet republics [Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan], is the largest economy in Central Asia.
It has rich hydrocarbon and metal deposits. It has attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign investment since becoming independent.
Strategically, it links the large and fast-moving markets of China and South Asia with those of Russia and Europe by road, rail, and a port on the Caspian Sea. It has described itself as the buckle in China’s huge ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ in infrastructure and trade projects.
Kazakhstan is the top global producer of uranium and last week’s unrest prompted an 8 percent jump in the price of the metal that fuels nuclear power plants [and also nuclear bombs].
It is the world’s ninth biggest oil exporter, producing some 85.7 million tonnes in 2021, and it is the 10th largest producer of coal.
It is also the world’s second-largest miner of bitcoin after the United States.
Sources of Discontent
The uprising began as protests in oil-rich western regions against the removal of state price caps on New Year’s Day for butane and propane, which are often referred to as ‘road fuels for the poor’ due to their low cost.
The reform, aimed at easing oil shortages, quickly backfired as prices more than doubled. The protests spread, tapping into a wider sense of discontent over endemic state corruption, income inequality and economic hardships that have all been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic.
Although the richest of the Central Asian republics in per capita income, half of the population live in rural, often isolated communities with poor access to public services.
While the country’s vast natural resources have made a small elite incredibly wealthy, many ordinary Kazakhs feel left behind. About a million people out of a total of 19 million are estimated to live below the poverty line.
Power Elites, Dynasty Politics & Nepotism Writ Large
Career diplomat Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, 68, was elected president in 2019 on promises to continue the broadly pro-business policies of his long-serving predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev.
But Nazarbayev, a former Soviet Politburo member who lead Kazakhstan for nearly three decades, was widely seen as the real power behind the throne.
Tokayev has cleverly used the protests – which sometimes targeted symbols of the Nazarbayev era including statues – to fire the 81-year-old former president from his post as chief of the powerful Security Council.
Tokayev also sacked Nazarbayev’s nephew, Samat Abish, as second-in-command of the security police.
Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter Dariga, a former speaker of the Senate and still a lawmaker was widely expected to be a possible future president.
Nazarbayev has made no public comments or appearances since the protests erupted and it remains unclear to what extent the uprising will weaken the considerable influence he and his family have continued to wield in politics and business.
Western countries and human rights groups have long criticized Kazakhstan for its authoritarian political system, its intolerance of dissent, curbs on media freedoms and lack of free and fair elections, though it has also been viewed as less repressive and volatile than its ex-Soviet neighbours.
Strangely, none of the media pundits, professionals with ties to the country or academic experts saw the crisis coming. It does change dramatically the overall security dimension, Vladimir Putin’s threat to Ukraine, i.e., it makes the political equation in Eurasia far more complicated.
The protests were at first isolated and limited and sparked by rising fuel prices, but have now broadened in substance to include a whole range of other political grievances and extended spatially to the whole country.
President Tokayev has imposed a nationwide state of emergency that includes an overnight curfew and a ban on mass gatherings. He claimed that the unrest was the work of foreign-trained “terrorist gangs”, without being specific. He has already initiated a tough response to the spontaneous protests.
There are even reports that in some areas security forces have sided with the protesters and that a domestic tug-of-war has complicated the situation.
Staff at Kazakhstan’s main airport had to flee anti-government demonstrators, who have also targeted government buildings.
Because of his inherent insecurity – his internal standing fragile — Tokayev immediately sought help from the Russian-led ‘Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – the military alliance made up of Russia and five ex-Soviet states – to help stabilize the country.
CSTO’s chairman, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed in a statement that the alliance would send ‘peacekeeping forces’ “for a limited period of time”.
Expert Opinion
Kate Mallinson, an expert on Central Asia at the international affairs think tank Chatham House based in London said the unfolding protests are “symptomatic of very deep-seated and simmering anger and resentment at the failure of the Kazakh government to modernize their country and introduce reforms that impacted people at all levels” (BBC, Jan.6).
The fact is that the political elite of the country has enriched themselves at the cost of the common people and the first sign of trouble have brought themselves to safety abroad in their private jets – like rats deserting a sinking ship.
Reflections of the Soviet Era
Kazakhstan was the last state standing in the Soviet Union before it was finally demolished.
In the deployment of CSTO-troops, one could very well hear “eerie echoes” of the Soviet crushing of the Hungarian revolution in 1956 and the so-called Prague Spring of 1968. After all, the old joke about the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact was that it was the only military alliance to attack itself! (The Guardian, Jan. 7).
Much of the anger on the streets was aimed at Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had still clung to considerable power as chairman of the influential National Security Council. His giant bronze statue in his home region in Taldykorganwas dismantled by angry demonstrators. He has been fired in a bid to quell the growing unrest. The entire government has also resigned.
Kazakhstan is a traditionally stable Central Asian state, aptly described as ‘authoritarian’. Until 2019 it was run by President Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, a Soviet-style dictator, whose rule was marked by stark elements of a personality cult, with his statues erected across the country and the capital renamed after him.
When he finally left, it was amid anti-government protests which he sought to limit by stepping down and putting a close ally in his place.
Elections in Kazakhstan are won by the ruling party with nearly 100 per cent of the vote and there is no effective political position. It was the same with Tokayev whose election in 2019 was widely condemned as showing scant respect for democratic standards.
Latest Situation
Dozens of people have died and thousands have been detained in Kazakhstan the past week during the worst violence seen in the Central Asian nation since it became independent in 1991.
Security forces have appeared to have reclaimed the streets of the country’s main city Almaty last Friday, a day after Russian paratroopers arrived to help quash the uprising (Reuters, Jan. 8).
Clash of Clans & the Power Elites
What has now emerged is that two power struggles are going on in Kazakhstan.
First, are the protests of the people from the streets against the government and the authorities for a better way of life.
The violent protests have been able to be suppressed with help from foreign, predominantly Russian troops.
Second, there is an intense confrontation between supporters of the old regime of ex-President Nursultan Nazarbayev and that of current President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Oligarchs on both sides have mobilized paramilitary/informal/organized crime groups, who were also responsible for most of the violence.
For the moment, Tokayev has won the upper hand by securing the foreign support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, neutralizing opposition figures in the security forces and having the ‘peacekeeping forces of the “Collective Security Treaty Organization” (CSTO) to restore law and order.
At the same time, it is a two-edged sword – his dependency on Putin is now enormous and his freedom of action circumscribed. The Sword of Damocles hangs over his head – so long as the Russian troops remain, and they may never leave. This would be very unpopular with his compatriots!
Fate of American Democracy
President Joe Biden starkly denounced former President Donald J. Trump and his allies last week for holding “a dagger at the throat of America” by promoting lies and violence, before, during and even after the January 6 mob assault on Congress. The nation’s capital and the nation itself has since fractured into sparring camps (NYT, Jan. 7).
In his most sustained and scathing repudiation of his predecessor since taking office, Biden used the anniversary of the attempted coup d’etat to condemn Trump for waging an “undemocratic” and “un-American” campaign against the legitimacy of the U.S. election system, just as autocrats and dictators do, all to avoid admitting defeat.
Biden bluntly said that the former president had created and spread a web of lies about the 2020 election. Trump has done so, because he values power over principle, he sees his own [selfish] interests as more important than his country’s interests. His bruised ego matters more to him than democracy or the U.S. Constitution. He just cannot accept that he lost.
According to CNN, Biden delivered the most powerful, blistering speech of his presidency thus far, signaling a stark shift in his approach to the nation’s ongoing crisis of democracy.
Biden pummeled the former president, referring to him 16 times, but without once mentioning Trump’s name – and doing it in ways that surely infuriated the disgraced politician in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
U.S. National Days of Infamy
The stage was set by Vice President Kamala Harris, who listed the resonant dates “when our democracy came under assault” – December 7, 1941, September 11, 2001, and January 6, 2021.
With that, Harris placed the assault by Trumpist forces alongside the Pearl Harbor attack by Japan that brought the U.S. into World War II, and the 9/11 attack by Al Qaeda on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in modern US history.
“By adding January to that [infamous] list – and with Biden making it crystal clear that responsibility for those events rests squarely with the former president – the administration has thrown down the gauntlet. And Harris’s framing reflects the reality that January 6 – like other days that have gone on to “live in infamy” – has now become a yearly marker and reminder of that wound on national collective memory” (Frida Ghitis, CNN, Jan. 7).
Biden has finally realized that now a different strategy is needed. The effort to restore normalcy and end the threat to democracy has not worked in the face of the relentless campaign by Trump and his allies to overturn the results of the last election and set the stage for a more effective movement/campaign to seize naked power – this time for a successful coup – if they lose at the ballot box again.
This was indeed a historic address, one that marks an important pivot point. The world waits with bated breath, whether Biden and his administration will have the courage and will to rise to the occasion and really hold “all January 6 perpetrators, at any level, accountable under the law if they were present that day or were otherwise responsible for the assault,” (Attorney General [Justice Minister] Merrick Garland).
It clearly does not rule out confronting Trump with his myriad misdeeds, and finally, it would be such sweet poetic justice.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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