Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Political Parties, the Ruin of Nepali Democracy
It can be said without an iota of doubt that the Nepalese political parties have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams in making a complete mess of the functioning of democracy.
The parties themselves are houses internally divided. They are guided not by some ideology or principles, but by loyalty to some factional leader.
The back-room deals and machinations that were at play in elevating Sher Bahadur Deuba to the premiership have yet to be revealed. Somehow it can be counted as a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, he did not emerge as a new avatar. Deuba is his old incompetent self. His can be characterized as a petticoat government since his better half is the main power behind the throne.
He is also being pushed hither and thither by his diverse allies and strange bedfellows, who dictate the agenda and have their own axes to grind. The executive arm of government is, therefore, non-functional, the so-called movers and shakers are all bogged down or overwhelmed by the Kathmandu Swamp.
The Loktantric Mobsters have also succeeded in extinguishing parliament, so that they can continue with their nefarious deeds unhindered. There is not only any parliamentary control of the executive, the whole legislative business has come to a standstill.
The same can be said of the judicial branch of government. Here at the Supreme Court the justices and lawyers are at each others’ throats – it is a war of words and – shamefully – also fists. It can be said that in this Himalayan Federal Democratic Republic, the Rule of Law has died.
Former boss of bosses K.P. Sharma Oli is keeping his cards close to his chest, and he together with his acolyte Shrimati Bidya Devi are following the tamasha very much bemused, but on the sidelines and with no interest for the sorry plight of the Nepalese people.
U.S.-Chinese Relations: Dangerous & Unstable Territory
In a phone call, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed preparations for US President Joe Biden’s highly anticipated virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
The meeting, scheduled for Monday evening Washington Time and Tuesday morning in Beijing, is the first between the two leaders since Biden took office in January.
According to the State Department, “The meeting presents an opportunity for the two leaders to discuss how to responsibly manage competition between the United States and the PRC [People’s Republic of China] while working together in areas where interests align” (CNN, Nov. 12).
A main driver for the talks is the need for both sides to establish guardrails that ensure that competition does not become a conflict. The US believes that when the terms of the relationship are established, vigorous competition can be sustained (Bloomberg, Nov. 13).
Blinken also stressed the importance of taking measures to ensure global energy supply and price volatility do not imperil global economic recovery.
On the upcoming Biden-Xi summit, Wang stressed its “great significance” for not just Sino-US relations, but also international relations.
Wang stressed: “The two sides should work in the same direction and make every preparation to ensure a smooth and successful meeting and bring bilateral relations back onto the track of sound and steady development.”
The talks come amid heightened tensions over self-governing Taiwan, trade and human rights. At the same time, the US and China unexpectedly unveiled a surprise pact last week on climate, underscoring some areas of close cooperation.
The meeting also comes days after Xi further cemented his power at a key meeting of China’s ruling Communist Party elite, overseeing the passing of a landmark, historical resolution [ manifesto/policy or mission statement and only the third in the history of the CCP after that of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping ] that paves the way for him to secure a third term in office.
Biden had once hoped for an in-person summit with Xi, but the Chinese leader hasn’t left China in nearly two years. The last time Biden and Xi spoke was in September, in a phone call that lasted roughly 90 minutes.
The meeting will be Biden’s first with Xi since he became President, and it comes as Xi hinted at slight warming of relations with the U.S.: China is willing to “enhance exchanges and cooperation across the board” with the US and bring relations between the two world powers back on the right track (website of the Chinese Embassy to the U.S.).
Flashpoint Taiwan
However, Taiwan remains a thorn in the side for both parties.
In the same telephone call, Blinken emphasized longstanding U.S. interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and expressed concern over China’s continued military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan.
He urged Beijing to engage in meaningful dialogue to resolve cross-Strait issues peacefully and in a manner consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people of Taiwan.
A leading concern for the U.S. is the question of whether Xi would invade Taiwan, or possibly seek to take smaller islands controlled by Taiwan [ Matsu Liehtao, Chinmen/Quemoy – just off the mainland coast, Wuchiu Hsu, Penghu Liehtao/Pescadores ], a move that would be seen as a significant test of US resolve.
General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said China is unlikely to take Taiwan by force within the next two years. And China’s state media have sought to dampen speculation that an armed conflict with Taiwan may be imminent.
Europe: Manufactured Migration Crisis
The United States and European delegations on the UN Security Council (UNSC) have urged action over Belarus’ behavior on its border with Poland, describing the migrant crisis as “orchestrated” and saying Minsk was endangering migrants “for political purposes” (The Guardian, Nov. 11).
Poland says the government of dictator Alexander Lukashenko has lured about 2,000 migrants [and still coming], mainly Kurds from the Middle East to Belarus to send them across the border into Poland. This was in retaliation for sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU).
The EU has called Lukashenko’s facilitation of illegal border crossings a “hybrid attack”.
Lukashenko has now threatened to cut deliveries of natural gas to Europe via a major pipeline from Russia [that runs through Belarus to Poland and Germany] in retaliation against any new sanctions that the EU might impose in response to the border crisis. If Russia does nothing at a time when Europe is reeling from energy constraints, it could further escalate the confrontation.
Lukashenko is backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the standoff, and the Kremlin leader staged another strong show of support for his ally by sending two nuclear-capable strategic bombers on a training mission over Belarus for a second straight day last week on Thursday.
The standoff has already spilt over to neighbouring Ukraine which also feels acutely threatened by Russia. It said last week that it would deploy thousands of guards and security personnel to its border with Belarus. Its interior minister said thousands of security personnel would run drills on the country’s shared border with Belarus “to counter a potential crisis with migrants”.
On the question of gas transit, Lukashenko has apparently bitten off more than he could chew, because Putin –aware of the grave dangers of escalation – promptly contradicted him. Last Saturday, he elucidated: If Belarus did cut off supplies, it would “cause great damage” to the European energy sector “and would not help in developing our relations with Belarus as a transit country” (Reuters, Nov. 13).
Ethiopia: Survival or Disintegration?
Last week Ethiopia outlined conditions for possible talks with rebels from the country’s war-torn northern Tigray region, following days of frantic diplomatic efforts by international negotiators to ward off another surge in fighting (AFP/Nov. 11).
Prime Minister [and Nobel Peace Laureate] Abiy Ahmed’s government has been locked in a year-long war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has pushed south in recent months and has not ruled out a possible march on the capital Addis Ababa.
The foreign ministry spokesman told reporters that the conditions for possible talks would be for the TPLF to:
– Stop the attacks
– Withdraw from the areas entered: Amhara and Afar
– Recognize the legitimacy of the Abiy Ahmed government.
TPLF spokesman has underlined that pulling out from Ankara and Afar before talks begin is “an absolute non-starter”.
The TPLF is also demanding an end to what the UN describes as a de facto humanitarian blockade on Tigray, where hundreds of thousands of people are believed to be living in famine-like conditions.
No aid has been allowed into Tigray by road from the central government since October 18, and 364 trucks are stuck in the capital of Afar, “pending authorization from the authorities to proceed,” according to the UN.
It also clarified: “It is estimated that 80 percent of the essential medication is no longer available in Tigray while most health facilities are not functional due to damage and lack of supplies.”
Under these circumstances, it is understandable that the TPLF does not trust the Abiy government. Moreover, the battle-hardened rebels claim that Addis Ababa itself could fall within weeks.
Afghanistan’s Nightmare
Millions of Afghans are on the brink of starvation even before a terrible winter. Most Western powers are unwilling to engage the Taliban, let alone recognize the regime. (World Politics Review, Nov. 2 & 9, Aug. 12 & 18). There is a complete lack of long-term strategic thinking, making the international community unprepared for new challenges, especially from international terrorism, haphazard migration to Europe and Afghanistan’s runaway, illegal opium trade. The ‘nightmare’ that the U.S. left behind has yet to be resolved!
Last week, representatives from the United States, Russia, China, and Pakistan – known as the ‘extended troika’ – met in Islamabad to discuss Afghanistan amid the deepening humanitarian crisis only months after the Taliban seized power in a blitz military campaign, and after President Ashraf Ghani suddenly fled the country. They also met with senior Taliban representatives on the sidelines (CNN, Nov. 12).
The meeting comes weeks after a similar discussion was held in Moscow, which was not attended by the United States. This time US Special Representative Tom West attended the extended troika talks.
The extended troika “expressed deep concern regarding the severe humanitarian and economic situation in Afghanistan and reiterated unwavering support for the people of Pakistan,” and “welcomed the international community’s urgent provision of humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan and expressed grave concern at the potential for an economic collapse and significantly worsening humanitarian crisis and a new refugee wave.”
The joint statement acknowledged concerns regarding the country’s serious liquidity challenges and was committed to focusing on measures to ease access to legitimate banking services.
However, the crux of the matter was that the Taliban still does not have access to the Afghan central bank’s billions of dollars in reserves, the bulk of which have been frozen in the U.S.
The joint statement also “called on the Taliban to work with fellow Afghans to take steps to form an inclusive and representative government that respects the rights of all Afghans and provides for the equal rights of women and girls to participate in all aspects of Afghan society.”
India’s Afghanistan Initiative Falls Flat
India also hosted a regional security conference on Afghanistan, where the Taliban takeover has dealt a deadly blow to its security interests (Foreign Policy/South Asia Brief, Nov. 11).
New Delhi enjoyed close relations with Kabul for nearly 20 years and invested heavily in infrastructure projects. The engagement with the Taliban regime presents an almost insurmountable challenge. The militant group has a long relationship with Pakistan and also seeks close relations with China [connected through the Wakhan corridor] – both deadly rivals of India.
The Taliban victory has also galvanized Islamist militants in the region – including the Pakistan Taliban – raising acute fears in New Delhi about terrorism.
Last week’s conference included national security advisors from Russia, Iran, and five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. But without the presence of the other three key players – the U.S., China and Pakistan – it was merely a failed attempt to make India relevant.
India being the odd man out has itself to blame by side-lining the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), in which Afghanistan is a full member and China has associate status as an observer.
Its only hope of being part of the conversation is to resuscitate SAARC. It does not have to do much – it has only to goad Nepal, the current chair to call an urgent meeting of its foreign ministers. Only agenda: the current humanitarian situation in a member state!
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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