Political Commentary
By P.R. Pradhan
Now, by 12 July onward, anytime, the constitutional bench may give the verdict on the case of dissolution of the House of Representatives. Viewing the recent decisions of the Court which were against the decision of the government led by Oli, this time also, the constitutional bench may reinstate the House.
The joint front of the political parties and legal experts advocating for the reinstatement of the House are predicting the court order for appointing Sher Bahadur Deuba to the post of prime minister.
It won’t be odd if the constitutional bench will give an order to assign Deuba to the post of the prime minister as the chief justice is questioning whether such an appointment would be constitutional or not.
Sure, Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli has become unpopular among the people due to his controversial decisions. He has violated the constitutional norms and also encouraged nepotism, favouritism, sycophancy, and corruption. He has felt that he is the government and everything. One cannot appreciate Oli’ such acts. But making unconstitutional efforts to topple down him is a blunder. His rivals, who were unable to topple down him from the PM’s post, have knocked on the court’s door and they are even encouraging the court to cross the constitutional limits.
According to the spirit of the constitution, the court cannot accept the signature of those UML MPs against the party’s decision. According to the law related to the political parties, the Madhav Nepal faction cannot go against the party decision and whip. According to the law, this faction should obey the party’s whip.
Deuba cannot claim the prime minister’s post without managing the necessary number in the parliament.
For the time being, the leaders against Oli, to fulfill their vested interests, are encouraging the court for removing the provision of party whip, which will be an amendment of the constitution by making the multiparty system a partyless one.
The fact is that immature, non-professional CA members had written the constitution with countless errors, which has thus become a shape like “camel”.
If professional legal experts would have allowed writing the constitution, such problems could not have occurred. Unfortunately, the political leaders, for their interests, are encouraging the court to follow the words in the constitution by discouraging the spirit.
The opposition alliance against Oli led by Sher Bahadur Deuba is confident that the constitutional bench will reinstate the House of Representatives.
Possible court verdicts:
The court may give the verdict for assigning Deuba as the PM based on the application of the MPs necessary to form an alternative government.
The other possibility is that the court may reinstate the House and ask it to elect a new prime minister.
And also, the court may justify PM’s decision to go for a fresh election by dissolving the House.
The third possibility is very rare.
If the court will order to assign Deuba as the PM, Oli will have to quit. However, in a month, Deuba will be unable to get a vote of confidence in the House, as Oli has assumed.
Otherwise, if the court will go for a second option, Oli is not in a mood to tender resignation, rather, he wishes to face the House.
Oli has planned to dismiss around 10 MPs elected through the proportional election and now sided with Madhav Nepal and assign Oli’s confidants to the post of the MP.
In this way, there will be only 12 MPs in the Nepal camp, from which Deuba cannot show the necessary number to form a government in the House.
Oli has to inform the Election Commission and the House about the party’s decision of dismissing 10 MPs.
The Election Commission may favour Oli but speaker Agni Sapkota is against Oli. Sapkota may not implement Oli’s decision of dismissing 10 MPs in the Nepal camp. This may intensify the tussle between Oli and Sapkota.
Even if reinstated the House, Oli wants to justify his decision of dissolving the House. If Oli will retain, within a month, he will again dissolve the parliament. If Deuba will become the PM, Oli will make all efforts to stop Deuba from bagging a majority in the House and finally dissolving the House.
Oli in a do or die position:
If Oli will quit the PM’s post, his faction’s politics is going to be finished. President Bidya Devi Bhandari will also face impeachment and immediately be suspended. VP Nandakishor Pun will look after the President’s portfolio. Therefore, Oli will try his best to remain in power.
India in an odd position:
After a joint statement of the five former prime ministers, who had signed on the 12-point agreement in Delhi in 2005, Delhi has become furious.
The statement was indicated towards Delhi for intervening in Nepali politics by backing Oli.
If Deuba will become the next PM, Delhi will have to face an odd position.
The present establishment in Delhi, i.e. BJP government is against the present constitution.
Firstly, Delhi wants its ownership of the constitution as in 2005 Delhi had made all efforts to make success the 2006 April uprising in Nepal. Delhi doesn’t want the increasing presence of Beijing and the West in Nepal.
Deuba is Delhi’s confidant but he is also known to be the confidant of the West.
Oli has totally surrendered to Delhi as he has become weak in Nepali politics. Oli is ready to accomplish all the assignments given by Delhi. If Deuba will become the PM, he will also try to serve Delhi but not to the extent that Oli is.
Why Madhav Nepal is sided with Prachanda and Deuba?:
Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda is in crisis. His party Maoist Center has become very weak.
The BJP government is against the communist parties in Nepal. Delhi has felt that Prachanda, who was solely supported by Delhi in launching the Maoist insurgency in Nepal, later sided with Beijing and formed the Nepal Communist Party after the merger of the Maoist Center and UML. He was instructed by Delhi not to merge his party in the NCP but Prachanda betrayed Delhi.
The NCP was dissolved under Delhi’s design. From the dissolve of the NCP, Prachanda has become further weak.
In an attempt of saving political career, the weak forces have become united.
Madhav Nepal is becoming weak in UML. He was unable to secure his position in Rautahat, his home constituency. He has defeated the election in his home constituency.
The next time, he contested the election from a constituency in Kathmandu and through an alliance with Prakashman Singh, NC leader, he got elected to the Parliament.
In the UML, he has only 40 percent strength. He has not seen his political future in the presence of Oli. Therefore, he is seeking different options.
Prachanda is a cunning political leader. He became able to convince Deuba, NC president to lead the united opposition front. Earlier, Deuba was closed to Oli and he had denied launching street agitation against the Oli led government. During that time, Deuba was taking stance on a fresh election.
Finally, Deuba, Nepal, Prachanda, Baburam Bhattarai and Upendra Yadav developed a front against Oli. Now, the anti-Oli front is planning to develop a long-term alliance to fail Oli. Even in elections, the plan to contest jointly.
Madhav Nepal has been assured of the victory of those 22 members in the upcoming elections. Since Deuba and Prachanda ensured the victory of all the MPs in the Nepal camp from the next election, Nepal has become closed to Deuba and Prachanda.
Every time, Nepal is taking consultation from Prachanda. Even on the issue of UML’s unification, Nepal is holding meetings with Prachanda on his role.
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