By Our Reporter
The proposed general convention of the Nepali Congress in August looks uncertain, mainly for three reasons—Coronavirus, by-elections and dispute within NC regarding the active membership.
If the present trend of COVID-19 spread continues till August, holding the convention in August will be impossible because, before the central convention, the party should hold four layers of convention—local level, district level, constituency level and provincial level. But if the virus spread continues, holding these conventions before the central convention will not be possible.
Secondly, Prime Minister Oli is planning to hold the by-elections for the vacant seats of the House of Representatives and Provincial Assemblies in September, the elections could also disturb the convention. PM Oli had already proposed to hold the by-elections in an all-party meeting held recently. He even said he would help to further postpone the NC general convention by making amendments to the existing laws.
Thirdly, NC is also eying to form a new government under its leadership and is working to table a no-confidence motion against the government. This process will also affect the convention calendar.
Although the party recently finalised the issue of active membership by allowing the distribution of active membership till April 30, the two other issues are still there to make its August convention uncertain.
UML on the verge of a split
The intensity of dispute in the ruling Communist Party of Nepal United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) though surprisingly did not surface this week as in the previous weeks has not gone down.
Although party chairman KP Sharma Oli and senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal sat twice for talks last week, they failed to sort out the differences, which the two leaders themselves revealed the next day. While Prime Minister and party chair Oli did not give up his arrogant attitudes towards leader Nepal and other leaders of the disgruntling faction, leader Nepal simply said the two-day talks yielded nothing.
Nepal stuck to his demand that the party should return to the situation which was before its unification with Moist Centre (May 2018) which Oli outright rejected. Nepal also did not accept the unilateral change made by Oli in the party.
On March 12, Oli had added 23 Maoist leaders in the central committee meeting of the party and relieved the office bearers and central members including Nepal elected in the 9th general convention of the party. But Nepal has been putting forth correction of March 12 decisions as a condition for unity in the party.
Prime Minister Oli who has earned a bad name in breaching the constitution and violating the party statute has stated that revoking March 12 decision was impossible, clearly because he inducted Maoist leaders in the central committee which resulted in the expulsion of four former Maoist leaders from House of Representatives.
Moreover, the Karnali incident in which four assembly members voted for Chief Minister Mahendra Bahadur Shahi by violating the party whip not only further widened the rift but pose a risk to the government led by Oli itself.
If the UML leaders crossed the floor as in Karnali, the Oli-led government could collapse during the voting of a no-confidence motion in the House of Representatives. Considering this in mind, Oli sought clarifications from 32 lawmakers close to Nepal. But his attempt to expel them was reportedly delayed after many leaders including Subas Nembang opposed taking any action against Nepal-faction. Now the country is in lockdown, and no meeting could be held for at least two weeks, and the Nepal faction may not face any action.
However, division in the UML and fall of the Oli-led government look almost certain in near future. The Nepali Congress and Maoist Centre have already prepared a no-confidence motion against the government, and once the Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal gives a nod to register it, the government will collapse and the UML will be divided as Oli will expel all those lawmakers of his party who vote against his government.
Alternative government unlikel
Although the Maoist Centre and Nepali Congress as well as the Nepal faction of the UML have been exercising to topple the Oli-led government, it is unlikely they could succeed in their efforts as far as the ‘nationalist’ government led by KP Sharma Oli continues to receive Indian backing.
If the pro-Indian faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal agrees to topple the government, Oli government will collapse immediately. But Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato of the JSP-N are not willing to act against the government because Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and they have the same foreign masters—India.
PM Oli dared to dissolve the House in December last year clearly at the advice of Samanta Goel, the RAW chief, and the two JSP-N leaders who have been working in the interest of India for a long.
However, if the two leaders want to maintain unity in the party, they could agree to topple the government at any time on the condition that they could enjoy a big share in the new government.
Yes, the UML leaders close to Nepal could cross the floor during voting as they did in the Karnali Provincial Assembly, causing failure of the Oli-led government, but the new PM might not garner the required majority unless all lawmakers of JSPN stand together. Fearing this situation, NC president Sher Bahadur is reportedly hesitating to register a no-confidence motion. Again NC chief Deuba wants elections when the communists were divided. As such, an alternative to the Oli-led government looks impossible in the near future.
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