Political Commentary
By P.R. Pradhan
Instead of compromise and negotiation with the leaders in the dissident group in the UML, Prime Minister and UML’s chairman K.P. Sharma Oli has planned to finish the existence of his rival group in the party.
First of all, the Oli faction called a central committee meeting of its faction and amended the party statute. When the Madhav Nepal faction opposed the one-sided decision taken by the Oli faction, in the next central committee meeting, Oli centralized all the power from the central committee meeting held on Saturday along with the capacity of changing the MPs elected through the proportional election. Also, the meeting decided to ask for clarification from four leaders in the dissident camp including Madhav Nepal.
Madhav Nepal camp in crisis:
Whether the party central committee can change the party statute or not, could be a legal question, however, Oli has decided to finish Madhav Nepal and those who are in his camp. Now, there left only three options for Madhav Nepal – either to surrender to Oli or split and form a separate political party or joining the Maoist Center led by Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda.
The recent meeting of the Nepal faction had decided to struggle against Oli by remaining in the UML through developing parallel organization from the central level to the ward level. This is possible only if Oli will allow the Nepal faction to join the UML. Oli may take action against and expel Madhav Nepal and three other leaders if their clarification will not be satisfactory. Oli is very much angry at the decision of Pushpakamal Dahal and Madhav Nepal, chairmen duo of the Nepal Communist Party to expel him from the general membership of the party earlier to the Supreme Court decision of disqualifying the NCP. Oli may retaliate against Madhav Nepal.
Downsizing Madhav Nepal:
There are around 20 MPs elected through the proportional election from the Madhav Nepal camp. Oli is now empowered to change the MPs elected from the proportional election and reward those who will support him. Accordingly, those MPs who see a dark political future of the Nepal camp may shift their camp. The process has already been started along with MP Krishna Bhakta Pokhrel’s announcement to join the Oli camp from the Nepal camp.
What will be the next political course of the party, we cannot say, however, considering the present mood of Oli, one can assume that he will cut down the wings of Madhav Nepal further. If Oli will become successful on his mission, the political future of Madhav Nepal, second-generation leaders Bhim Rawal, Ghanashyam Bhushal, among others in the Nepal camp seems very bleak.
Dahal in dilemma:
It has already been more than three weeks since the Supreme Court disqualified the Nepal Communist Party and recognized the existence of the then UML and Maoist Center as separate parties.
Earlier, along with the restoration of the House, the Prachanda and Madhav Nepal faction in the then NCP had prepared to register a no-confidence motion against PM Oli. After the second verdict of the Court, the political scenario has been changed.
The Madhav Nepal faction had to return to the mother party UML. Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda faction returned to the Maoist Center. The number with the Maoist Center is not enough to topple down the Oli led government. Therefore, there is the need to get support from NC and Janata Samajbadi Party to topple down the Oli led government. As NC and JSP have not taken a concrete decision, Prachanda is compelled to continue the Maoist Center’s support to the government. According to the constitutional provision, if once the no-confidence motion is registered against the government and if the government will demonstrate the House’s confidence, the opposition group cannot register a no-confidence motion for one year. Such a provision has compelled Prachanda to continue his support to the government.
Prachanda’s hope:
Still, Prachanda is hopeful in the formation of a collation government among the Nepali Congress, Maoist Center and Janata Samajbadi Party. He recently said that very soon, a no-confidence motion is going to be registered against Oli and form another government.
Oli’s strategy:
PM Oli’s ultimate plan is to justify his earlier decision to dissolve the House. Therefore, he is trying to create an obstacle in the formation of a new government. Oli plans to retain the government led by him otherwise to dissolve the House and go for a fresh mandate.
Oli, therefore, is trying to keep engaged a section in the NC and also a section in the JSP.
In the meantime, Oli is planning to finish the existence of the Madhav Nepal faction in the UML.
Oli has planned to initiate action against the leaders in the Nepal faction in his party and to split the Janata Samajbadi Party.
The number game:
The Nepal faction in the UML needs the support of 40 percent of the party central committee members and 40 percent of the MPs to split the party, which is impossible to manage by the Nepal faction. This is the reason the Nepal faction has returned to the mother organization. Taking benefit of the situation, Oli is developing an environment to take action against his rivals in the party.
Likewise, Oli is planning to create a split in JSP.
Presently, there has been seen two lines in JSP. Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato are of the view of supporting Oli, whereas, Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai are for developing an anti-Oli alliance among NC, MC and JSP.
If JSP will split, in that case, the NC and Maoist Center cannot manage necessary MPs to topple down the government.
Accordingly, if the Madhav Nepal faction will perform non-cooperation to Oli or if the Nepal faction will be ousted from the UML, the Oli government cannot manage the necessary votes to save the government. However, Oli can add MPs in his support by expelling present MPs in the Nepal camp elected through the proportional election from the UML. Also, the remaining MPs may come to support Oli if Oli will introduce a strict order against floor-crossing in the House.
If any of the political parties cannot demonstrate their majority, as per the Article 76 Sub Article 7, the PM may recommend to dissolve the House and conduct an election within six months. PM Oli is working with these plans.
Oli wants to conduct the upcoming election under his leadership.
If Madhav Nepal faction will also remain with Oli, the total strength of the UML will be 120 votes.
The total strength of the House is 275. However, four MPs are suspended and one has died. Therefore, the present strength of the House is 270. Therefore, to bag the majority, there is a need for managing 136 votes. If Oli will manage 16 votes from JSP, he can save the government. Also, out of four independent MPs, Oli may get two votes (1 RPP MP and 1 Nepal Majdoor Kishan Party MP are seen in support of Oli.)
But the question is that whether those MPs in the Madhav Nepal faction will stand for Oli or not! If the MPs from the Nepal faction will cross the floor or remain absent during the voting, Oli may face a crisis. Therefore, Oli has tried to amend the regulation of the Parliamentarian Party. He has constituted a board to amend the regulation of the parliamentarian party with the plan of taking strong action against those MPs who violate or cross the floor.
JSP has 32 MPs by excluding two suspended MPs.
If JSP will decide to support UML, at that time, there will be 120 (UML) plus 32 (JSP) votes. The number is more than enough to save the Oli led government. Even if JSP is split and Oli will get 16 votes from splinter JSP, Oli’s government will be saved.
There is no chance for Oli to get support from the Maoist Center. NC is claiming to form a government under NC’s leadership.
Therefore, to bring one faction of the JSP in support of the Oli government is the best option for Oli.
NC in the game:
Sher Bahadur Deuba’s rival camp is insisting Deuba form a coalition government under his leadership in collaboration with Maoist Center and JSP. Deuba has remained passive saying that still the situation is premature. Deuba, in fact, is keen to form a government in collaboration with Oli. Deuba is unhappy with the communist leaders who have strongly opposed MCC, the American grant project. MCC was endorsed by the Deuba led government and the failure of MCC in Nepal has raised the question of the credibility of Deuba. Deuba, therefore, wants to join hands with Oli, who is supportive of the implementation of MCC. However, he is under pressure from his rivals in the party for not developing an alliance with Oli, a leader who initiated an unconstitutional and regressive move. Furthermore, it is said that earlier, Oli had consulted with Deuba for the dissolution of the House and both the leaders had agreed upon running a coalition government in case the Court would reinstate the House.
NC has 61 MPs by excluding two MPs who are suspended.
Maoist Center has 53 MPs. Out of them, three have joined the UML (Oli camp). The total strength of MC is thus 50 MPs.
NC plus MC will have a total of 111 MPs. Therefore, to form a government, NC and MC will have to bring JSP (32 MPs). If the three parties will be able to develop an alliance, the total number will be 143, which is enough to form a coalition government. If JSP will be divided or split, (Earlier to the merger, the then Rastriya Janata Party had 16 MPs.) If former RJP will not vote for the coalition government, in that case, there will be only 127 votes, which is not enough to form a government under the NC leadership.
On the other hand, if JSP will split and former RJP will vote for Oli, the Oli government’s strength will be 136, which is enough to save the government, however, Oli should be able to bag support of the Madhav Nepal faction.
If UML and JSP will split, in that case, there is no other option except going for a midterm poll.
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