Political Commentary
By P.R. Pradhan
The House of Representatives is trying to get a new prime minister to succeed Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli who is alleged for taking an unconstitutional and regressive move by dissolving the House of Representatives (HoR). We don’t know, whether the House will be able to get a new prime minister or Oli himself will rule further.
The number game:
It is a Herculean task for the anti-Oli camp to manage the necessary vote to form a government. Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda, seeing the situation as impossible, has said that he is not the candidate for the PM’s post, however, his party, Maoist Center, will provide unconditional support to the anti-communist parties in developing an alliance for a government to topple down a communist government led by Oli.
The Nepali Congress has given formal consent to party president Sher Bahadur Deuba to develop an alliance government under his leadership. Deuba is not highly encouraged by such an offer considering the structure and strength of the political parties in the Parliament.
Even after the legal separation in the Nepal Communist Party, the UML is the largest party. It needs just 18 votes more to save or continue the present government under Oli.
On the other hand, NC, the second-largest party in the Parliament, needs the support of the Maoist Center and Janata Samajbadi Party to secure a necessary vote to form a government.
The Janata Samajbadi Party, on the other hand, is divided on the issue of developing an alliance.
Party’s influential leaders Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato have put forward a three-point-demand including the release of MP Resham Chaudhari, taking back cases against JSP leaders and workers and release of them, making public the report of Lal Commission and amendment of the constitution. The two leaders Thakur and Mahato are saying that the demands put forward by the party are vital than the formation of an alliance government. JSP should support the force which is ready to respond to its demands, the two leaders are advocating.
On the other hand, Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai are of the view of forging an anti-Oli alliance government and relieving Oli from the PM’s post as soon as possible. JSP leaders’ division has delayed the effort for the formation of an anti-Oli alliance.
When will Oli be relieved?:
On 7 March the House of Representatives was restated following the Supreme Court constitutional bench’s verdict. It was highly expected that the Prachanda-Nepal faction would register a vote of no-confidence against PM Oli the same day. They had even collected the necessary signature of the Members of Parliament (MPs). But they didn’t register the motion. The reason was that if the Prachanda-Nepal faction will become fail in managing the necessary votes to endorse the no-confidence motion against him, Oli’s rivals cannot file another no-confidence motion for one year. Therefore, the Prachanda faction decided not to file the no-confidence motion without ensuring Oli’s defeat.
The same 7 March afternoon, the Supreme Court gave another verdict by disqualifying the Nepal Communist Party and separating erstwhile UML and Maoist Center. The Court verdict changed the entire political scenario. The Madhav Nepal faction in NCP was compelled to return to the mother organization. Janata Samajbadi Dal, the fourth party in the Parliament became the decisive force in the formation of the government.
Even after more than two weeks of reinstatement of the House, the political parties are unable to name a new prime minister to succeed Oli.
Meanwhile, PM Oli is trying to retain his government with the support of the Janata Samajbadi Party. If he fails on this move, he will again try to initiate another strategy to go for a fresh people’s mandate. Meanwhile, Oli made an effort to hold talks with the Madhav Nepal faction. The first talks held on 15 March after the Nepal faction returned to the mother party concluded without any decision, nevertheless, an environment for talks has been developed.
Political dilemma:
The nation is passing through a fluid political scenario. Even if formed an anti-Oli government allying with the three parties NC, Maoist Center and JSP, it cannot give a strong government. Political instability will continue further. The only option is to go for a fresh election, however, the election will also give a hung-parliament, which will not be a permanent solution in ending political instability.
The concept of proportional election is a hurdle for securing a majority for any of the political parties.
In conclusion, the present political system doesn’t suit the Nepali environment, perhaps, will strengthen the symptoms of being a failed nation.
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