Political Commentary
By P.R. Pradhan
Following the Supreme Court verdict last week, the session of the House of Representatives is going to start on 7 March. Since Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli decided to face the House of Representatives his rival group – Pushpakamal Dahaland Madhav Nepal faction in the Nepal Communist Party — has fallen into a crisis.
All had expected that along with the Court verdict against Oli’s act, he would tender resignation on the moral ground. In spite of such a speculation, Oli said that he would face the House.
Until now, the Dahal-Nepal faction has not been able to manage more than 86 to 90 MPs in favour of the no-confidence motion. This number is not enough to fail the Oli led government. Chances of horse trading from both the factions cannot be denied.
Dahal and Nepal are thus begging the support of the Nepali Congress (NC) and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) for their support in toppling down the Oli led government.
The Nepali Congress has given a clear message that until a formal split in the Nepal Communist Party, it would remain neutral. Accordingly, when Dahal and Nepal requested JSP for its support, Rajendra Mahato, a senior leader of the party had questioned that in which party had Dahal and Nepal belonged! Mahato had asked to clear their political status.
The Election Commission, on the base of NCP’s interim statute, believes that the NCP has not split legally. There are certain hurdles to split the party. They are, until completing five years of establishment of a party and merger of more than one political parties, they cannot split or the splinter party will not get recognition as a national party. Therefore, both the factions are claiming the NCP as their party. They are reluctant to split NCP and form another party.
Likewise, during the merger of the then UML and Maoist Center into the Nepal Communist Party, an interim statute was submitted to the Election Commission, in which, it is stated that all the party decisions will be made through consultation, understanding and decision between the two chairmen – KP Sharma Oli and Pushpakamal Dahal — which will be endorsed by party general secretary Bishnu Poudel.
EC cannot recognize any decision done by a single chairman. Thus far, for a formal split of the NCP also, both Oli and Dahal have to write a joint letter to the Election Commission.
Interestingly, both the factions are claiming that they are the genuine Nepal Communist Party and seeking the EC’s recognition without completing necessary legal evidence. The Oli faction is claiming that as chairman and general secretary are in their faction, it is the legal NCP, whereas, the Dahal-Nepal faction is claiming that it holds an above two-thirds number of the central committee members, which is enough to prove it as a legal party.
Who to call parliamentarian party meeting?:
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is the leader of the Parliamentarian Party. He is not going to call the meeting to decide his fate. Subhas Nembang is the deputy leader of the parliamentarian party. He is also sided with Oli. Dev Gurung was the whip. Oli has already ousted him by nominating Bishnu Bhattarai as the new whip.
The Dahal-Nepal faction is planning to call the parliamentarian party meeting through a demand of a majority of the NCP MPs and elect Dahal as the new parliamentarian party leader. Such a provision has not been mentioned in the constitution.
The Oli faction is confident that its government will retain further as his rival faction is unable to propose the next PM’s name. As per the constitution, the name of the proposed candidate to the post of the PM should also be mentioned while filing a no-confidence motion against the sitting PM.
Who will be the next PM?:
The Dahal-Nepal faction is planning to disturb the House affairs demanding Oli’s resignation.
The Oli faction has warned to take action against the NCP MPs who will cross the floor during the voting on a no-confidence motion against PM Oli.
As per the law, the central committee meeting should approve action against the MPs. Which central committee is legal, it has not been confirmed as until now, the legal status of both the NCP factions is not clear.
Of late, Dahal has claimed that the Election Commission would soon give its decision by recognizing his faction. He has claimed that his faction has been able to destroy a setting by Oli in the EC.
If EC will qualify any one of the factions, those elected representatives in the federal, provincial, and local bodies supporting another faction disqualified by the EC shall lose their position, say legal experts.
Moreover, without the support of the NC and JSP, the Dahal-Nepal faction alone cannot topple down the Oli led government and give a new government. There is the need of securing 136 votes to form a government.
The Speaker may ask PM Oli to show the confidence of the House and compel the later to face the confidence motion.
NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba is a strong candidate for the post of PM. However, Deuba’s rival group within the party is trying to stop Deuba from becoming the PM. Ramchandra Poudel, Shashank Koirala, Gagan Thapa are the NC leaders who opine that this is not the time to lead the government by the NC but the time to strengthen the party organization.
Dahal or Nepal may not be accepted by the NC and JSP. Meanwhile, with an excuse for medical treatment, Baburam Bhattarai has rushed to Delhi. It is said that Bhattarai is there also to get the Indian blessing to become the PM. Bhattarai has floated the idea of the formation of a national government. Therefore, it won’t be odd if Bhattarai, through the Indian blessing will become the next PM.
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