By Our Political Analyst
There are chaos and dilemma in the political arena of the country. Whatever be the Supreme Court’s ruling, in both the cases, the Nepali politics will be witnessing instability.
If the Supreme Court will restore the House of Representatives, on that case, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli will have to face no-confidence motion, following topple down of his government. Also, President Bidya Devi Bhandari will have to face impeachment and immediate suspension from the position of the President.
Ultimately, the Oli camp’s politics will be ended.
If the court will shift the responsibility by saying that the present case of dissolution of the parliament is completely political and it is beyond the court’s jurisdiction, the nation will go for mid-term polls.
In case, polls will not take place on the given dates, PM Oli will try to bring the Nepali Congress in the government and run a coalition government until the next election.
If elections are held, NC may emerge as the largest party, it is assumed. The NCP faction led by Oli may emerge as the second-largest party. Accordingly, the Tarai centric Janata Samajwadi Party may emerge as the third-largest party, whereas, the Dahal-Nepal faction led NCP may emerge as the fourth largest party and the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party may emerge as the fifth largest party in the parliament.
The fate of Dahal-Nepal partnership:
It seems Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda may face different charges if he fails to stick on power. It seems, his political future will be finished if he fails to stick in the ruling or the main opposition party.
Meanwhile, Madhav Nepal will also try to corner Dahal from politics as he has wished to become the party chairman.
None of the parties is going to bag a comfortable majority and there will be a hung parliament.
Is unification between the two factions possible?:
Bamdev Gautam, vice chairman of the unified Nepal Communist Party has not joined any of the factions saying that he is making efforts for unification of the splinter groups in the party.
He is, in fact, waiting for the court verdict. If the court will give a verdict in favour of Oli, Gautam will join the Oli camp and if the court will give a verdict in favour of Dahal-Nepal faction, Gautam will join Dahal-Nepal camp. So far, many of the party workers and leaders will decide their fate along with the court verdict.
To which side the court verdict will come, that faction will become stronger than the other one.
Nevertheless, there is very little chance of reunification of the two factions.
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