EDITORIAL
The ruling communists have begun counting numbers. Since Prime Minister K.P. Oli is not budging, his party secretariat, central committee and parliamentary committees are bashing their heads and counting numbers. Resigned to the fact that Pushpa Kamal Dahal must now venture it alone to call a decisive meeting and force his other party president’s hands, the ‘force’ will have to come in numbers that ultimately must come to parliament since it is parliament that is, after all, constitutional. It is here, that Oli’s advantage as prime minister is inherent. Oli’s own in parliamentary numbers is easily added through coalitions. The lure of government is not beyond Oli’s detractors too. And, so, the undercurrent is that of new alignments. The opposition party, the Nepali Congress is also astir. Their general assembly and party elections are making Congress leaders active and the current coalition climes favour their party chairman Deuba. Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba are very much in talking terms and their proximity has much promise. A segment that joined the Congress from the RPP last week suggests that the Indian Congress establishment has not deserted the Nepali Congress outright. This speaks much of the RPP disarray at the moment although it leaves possibilities in the Kamal Thapa-Oli nexus. Ultimately, though, the RPP is just single in the lower house forcing eyes to turn to the recently unified Tarai ranks. Indeed, it is suggested that Oli’s best bet is in dissolving the house for election when he is in government, leaving these coalitions to show their strength at the polls since many an analyst now add numbers depreciatingly of Oli’s own NCP ranks.
A house dissolved for polls is an altogether different game. With the party splintered and coalitions as lose as they will be, one recalls that it was splintering parties at the time of elections that was Deuba’s doom as also the then system. There is reason to suggest that we are approaching similar prescriptions. A much-underplayed factor is the NCP led by Biplab who has been announcing his presence time and again ignored by the government. An even ominous precursor boding unwell for election climate is radically diminished popular belief in politicians and their political parties. This reality threatens a movement in an altogether different direction manifesting in caste and ethnic movements detrimental to the polls or taking the polls in an altogether different direction. Whatever, with parliament in limbo for the moment it would seem only natural that politics is what it is these days but cross-party talks to reach for strength outside the party is likely to result in more than normal configurations. The exercise is to see who is on top. How this manifests in the streets is likely to be a key determinant.
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