+USA +Pakistan +Germany/China
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
US Mid-Term Elections: End of the Road?
At the end phase of the US mid-term elections for state offices, governors, the House of Representatives and the Senate, the heavyweights of American politics hit the campaign trail to deliver the closing arguments about the importance of Tuesday’s elections.
However, there was a sinking feeling that the messages were not being registered/understood/grasped.
“Democracy” Writ Large
President Joe Biden told donors in Florida that “democracy is on the ballot.”
Later, in a speech from Washington, D.C., he warned about political violence across the country (CNN/Zachary B. Wolf: “What Matters”, Nov. 3).
Democracy in Individual States
In Arizona, former President Barack Obama, who is extremely popular and a real magnet for Democrats, told a rally that if a slate of Republican election deniers there wins, “Democracy as we know it may not survive in Arozona.”
He added: “That’s not an exaggeration. That is a fact.”
Candidates for secretary of state in Arizona and Nevada, in particular, have promised to radically change the election systems there to guard against (imagined) widespread fraud – for which there is absolutely no evidence.
2024 Looms Large
Former President Donald Trump started off his closing blitz of rallies starting in Iowa, which is not the site of the most hotly contested Senate race but is home to the first presidential preferential contest in the coming 2024 primaries. Trump apparently wants to test the waters before possibly announcing his candidature in the 2024 presidential elections.
At an earlier rally in Texas, Trump framed the 2022 Midterms as an opportunity for the (bogus) “MAGA movement” [‘Make America Great Again’] to take back the country from.
It is indeed revealing that Trump campaigned in Florida, but ambitious Florida Governor Ron DeSantis [a possible rival] was missing from the action.
American Voters Don’t Understand the Gravity of the Midterms
In an extended interview on CNN, former Secretary of State and presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said Republicans are trying to scare voters with the message that crime is rising.
Democrats wanted voters to be afraid about the future when they vote, but Clinton admitted it can be difficult to make a case about what might happen [if Republicans won control of one or both houses of Congress] as opposed to what is actually happening [inflation, rise of gasoline prices and cost of living].
A former Washington, D.C. police officer, who was injured during the January 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol, said: “The biggest threat to democracy is indifference, which I believe will be our downfall as a nation,” adding: “We don’t seem to care enough to pay attention to what’s happening to our country.”
Not One, but More than 500 Elections
Messages from Biden, Obama, Trump and Clinton are about the country as a whole.
But this election cycle, at its core, is about 435 House seats, 35 Senate races, 36 polls for governor.
Unlike the House, where the emerging consensus is that the Republicans have a very strong chance to seize a commanding majority, control of the Senate still remains uncertain.
The Republicans are looking to win control of the evenly divided Senate and severely hamper Biden’s legislative agenda in the second half of his term, which may well turn out to be a lame duck.
How is American Democracy Faring?
A weakened American democracy would be an ominous prospect, not only for Americans but also for a 21st Century world beset with enormous, existential challenges.
The first priority should, therefore, be to assess and scrutinize what these elections have revealed about what the future holds for the American democratic system (Council on Foreign Relations/ CFR, Nov. 2).
Germany: Business as Usual with China
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in China last Friday with a team of top executives, sending a clear message: the business of the world’s fourth largest economy with the world’s second-largest must continue. In fact, Germany needs China more than ever.
Scholz is the first Western leader to visit China since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and since Xi secured a third term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) last month.
Each leader urged the other to push for an end to the war in Ukraine, though Xi stopped short of calling for a Russian withdrawal.
Xi’s comments sent a clear message to Vladimir Putin that nuclear threats are a red line for China, giving common ground with the European Union (EU) on a conflict that has strained ties with the bloc (Bloomberg).
Amidst domestic and international critique, Scholz staunchly defended his whirlwind visit by underlining that Xi’s stance on nukes in Ukraine was reason enough to visit China (Reuters, Nov. 5).
[Diplomats in Berlin and Beijing had prepared the fertile ground beforehand].
In any case, it was a major diplomatic success for Scholz and could be the first step for Germany to take on the mantle of responsible leadership in Europe.
Such a strong statement could only have been possible because of the unique rapport between the two leaders [and their entourage/diplomats].
Scholz has succeeded in putting German-Chinese and EU-Chinese relations on quite a different and higher level.
Germany’s Zeitenwende could be a blessing in disguise for Europe:
- It could normalize and stabilize Europe’s economic relations with China;
- The Sino-German understanding could contribute to diffusing the armed Ukraine conflict.
Scholz met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People after landing in the capital Friday morning and was received by Premier Li Keqiang in the afternoon (CNN/Meanwhile in China, Nov. 4).
Accompanying Scholz was a delegation of 12 German industry titans, including the CEOs of Volkswagen, Deutsche Bank, Siemens and chemicals giant BASF.
The group entered China without undergoing a mandatory seven-day quarantine standard for most arrivals. Hazmat-clad medical workers greeted Scholz’s jet at Beijing’s Capital International Airport to test the official delegation for Covid-19 upon their arrival.
In a major breakthrough, Scholz secured agreement allowing expats in China to use BioNTech Covid vaccines (Reuters, Nov. 4).
Beijing had hitherto insisted on administering domestically produced vaccines.
During the Friday morning meeting between the two leaders, Xi called for Germany and China to work together amid a “complex and volatile” international situation, and said the visit would “enhance mutual understanding and trust, deepen pragmatic cooperation in various fields and plan for the next phase of Sino-German relations,” according to state broadcaster CCTV.
Sino-German Trade Relations
Last year, China was Germany’s biggest trading partner for the sixth year in a row, with the value of trade up over 15 % percent from 2020, according to official statistics. Chinese trade with Germany was worth a combined Euro 245 billion.
If the European Union and Germany were to decouple from China, it would lead to large GDP losses for the German economy.
Germany needs to shore up its export markets as ties with Russia, once it main supplier of natural gas, continue to unravel.
Germany will not want to lose its Chinese economic partner; rather it will try to nurture the economic relations as long as it’s possible.
Maximilian Butek of the German Chamber of Commerce in China made the point: “despite all odds and challenges, China remains unrivaled in terms of market size and market growth opportunities.”
Nuclear Breakthrough
Scholz and Xi both condemned the use and threats to use nuclear weapons in international conflicts.
Scholz said they were specifically referring to the war in Ukraine, while the Chinese readout of their meeting said Xi more generally called for preventing a nuclear crisis in Eurasia.
Step Forward in Curtailing Covid-19 Restrictions
The breakthrough in overcoming China’s stringent Zero-Covid restrictions has been remarkable (see above).
This was a major hindrance for European companies doing business in China.
China’s opening up will also regenerate many blocked supply-chains.
Pakistan at the Crossroads
Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, 70, has survived a gun attack on his convoy while holding a protest long march in the eastern city of Wazirabad.
The protest march – the second such rally this year — had been called to demand early elections.
The government has repeatedly said it will hold elections next year, as planned.
He was wounded in the leg shin when a burst of gunfire hit his vehicle. One person was killed and at least five others were injured.
A senior aide and spokesperson for Khan accused the Pakistan government of being “directly involved” in the attack (BBC, Nov. 4).
Current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the shooting and ordered an immediate investigation. President Arif Alvi said the incident was a “heinous assassination attempt.”
Last month, Pakistan’s election commission disqualified Khan from holding public service in a case described by the former star cricketer as politically motivated.
He had been accused of incorrectly declaring details of gifts from foreign dignitaries and proceeds from their alleged sale. The gifts included Rolex watches, a ring and a pair of cuff links.
Pakistan has a long history of deadly political violence.
In the most high-profile case, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated at a public rally in 2007.
Pakistan in ‘Perilous Situation’
Imran Khan claimed last Friday that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah, and Major-General Faisal Nasir – an intelligence officer from the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) – plotted to have him killed and have it blamed on “a religious fanatic”.
The fact is that Pakistan has long grappled with Islamist militancy, with right-wing religious groups having huge sway over the population in the predominantly Sunni Muslim-majority country.
“The political situation in Pakistan has entered into a dangerous phase,” said academic and political analyst Tauseef Ahmed Khan, who is also a board member of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (AFP, Nov.6).
“In a country with a history of political chaos, the sounds echo.”
Despite being ousted by a vote of no-confidence in April, Khan retains mass public support – winning a string of by-elections even as he battles a series of legal cases brought by the current government.
As the general pressure rises, the government’s dependence on the country’s “deep state” – a term often used to refer to the powerful military [ which has ruled directly in nearly half the country’s existence and is, therefore, considered ‘a state within a state’ ] for its survival is rapidly increasing, the analyst Ahmed Khan said.
“It is a perilous situation – not only for the democratic process but also for the country – especially with regards to economic development,” he stressed.
“The issues of poverty, hunger and development fall into the background” [especially in view of the recent disastrous floods in the province of Sind].
Political Enemies at Each Other’s Throats
Imran Khan and Shehbaz Sharif have been at each other’s throats for months, trading accusations of incompetence and corruption with language and tone overflowing with contempt (AFP).
But such a public accusation by Khan, and the naming of a senior military officer, has taken the situation to a new level of crisis.
Khan has offered no evidence to back his claims, which the government has dismissed as “lies and fabrications”.
Role of the All-Powerful Military
It is enigmatic that Khan has chosen to implicate the powerful security establishment given that many say backed his original rise to power.
The military’s press wing has already issued a statement urging the government to take Khan to court for defamation.
Officials from Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party could also be in the crosshairs.
Karachi-based political analyst Kaiser Bengali underlined that the military was now “sitting and wondering what went wrong and what they can do.”
The Prevailing Economic Malaise
Analyst Bengali maintains that behind the political crisis hides the more pervasive economic catastrophe.
“The state is bankrupt, whatever resources it has are consumed in debt servicing and defence, and the government salaries,” Bengali maintains.
“Whatever crumbs are available is what the politicians are fighting over…that is why the fight has become so petty.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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