Review of World Politics
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Bangladesh Marches Ahead
Bangladesh marked the 50th anniversary of its independence from Pakistan last Friday, and the country celebrated in style. It inaugurated a 10-day “golden jubilee” on March 17 with parades, fireworks, tributes to freedom hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and visits from neighbouring heads of state and governments, including Nepalese President Bidya Devi Bhandari. Other important statesmen, like Chinese President Xi Jinping, offered congratulatory video messages (Foreign Policy, March 25).
The South-Asian nation has much to celebrate. It is one of the world’s greatest economic growth stories, with average economic growth increasing every decade since 1980. In dollar terms, its exports have risen by about 80 percent over the last 10 years! The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected last October that its domestic GDP per capita in 2020 would even exceed India’s.
Economists attribute Bangladesh’s incredible growth story to a wide range of factors:
One of the world’s most competitive garment industries
The education and empowerment of women
A vibrant network of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and
High levels of remittances from migrant workers.
Neighbouring Nepal has much to learn from Bangladesh. It has failed miserably in targeting a key sector – tourism – as a major engine of growth by offering quality over quantity – like in neighbouring Bhutan.
Mass Murder by Myanmar Military
Protesters in Myanmar returned to the streets Sunday to press their demands for a return to democracy, just a day after security forces killed at least 114 people on the bloodiest day since the February 1 putsch. The number of killings since then is now more than 420, according to multiple counts (AP/Associated Press, March 28).
Sunday’s killings by police and soldiers took place throughout the country as Myanmar’s military celebrated the annual Armed Forces Day celebration with a parade in the country’s capital, Naypyidaw. The unprecedented bloodshed quickly drew international condemnation, both from diplomatic missions within Myanmar and internationally.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was shocked by the wanton killings of civilians, including children and wrote on Twitter: “The continuing military crackdown is unacceptable and demands a firm, unified and resolute international response.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a tweet that his country was “horrified by the bloodshed perpetuated by Burmese security forces, showing thatthe junta will sacrifice the lives of the people to serve the few.”
Ethnic Groups takes on the Army
The General Strike Committee of Nationalities (GSCN), one of the main protest groups, in an open letter posted on Facebook urged armed ethnic groups “to collectively protect the people, youths, women, children and elders” (Reuters, Marche 29).
About 3,000 people fled to neighbouring Thailand after military jets bombed areas controlled by the Karen National Union (KNU) militia near the border.
Ethnic Composition in Myanmar
Myanmar (also known as Burma) is an ethnically diverse nation with 135 distinct ethnic groups officially recognized by the government. The major ones are grouped into eight ‘major national ethnic races’. The actual ethnic composition is:
Bamar 68 percent
Shan 9.00
Kayin 7.00
Chinese 2.50
Mon 2.00
Rakhine 1.7
Kayah 1.83
Kachin 1.50
Indians 1.2
Other groups include the Wa, Naga, Lahu, Lisu and Palaung at 4.5 percent.
Certain groups like the Burmese-Chinese, Burmese-Indian and Burmese-Gurkha [Nepalese] are not officially recognized.
International Defence Chiefs Condemn Violence
Defence chiefs from 12 different countries have condemned violence in Myanmar. The U.S., Britain, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan issued the statement, a day after Myanmar’s deadliest day of protests.
“We condemn the use of lethal force against unarmed people by the Myanmar Armed Forces and associated security forces,” the statement read, and continued: “A professional military follows international standards for conduct and is responsible for protecting – not harming – the people it serves.”
After such a damning judgement, the international community is called upon to act promptly and decisively—luke-warm measures like sanctions have not done the trick. More determined and resolute measures – including the use of force — are now essential.
Utter Failure of the U.N. Security Council
There can be little doubt that the UN Security Council has failed to carry out even minimal measures to mitigate the deadly repression by the military. It is also crystal clear that the acute Myanmar crisis is a grave threat to international peace and security and the Council should have already undertaken adequate and appropriate actions, including the use of force – “demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations” [Art. 42].
In the case of a deadlocked Security Council, the General Assembly can be summoned via UNGA Resolution 377A – the Uniting for Peace Resolution — for an emergency special session (ESS) in order to maintain/restore international peace and security. The UN Secretary-General and the Western Powers must now act immediately, instead of endlessly bleating about the seriousness of the already dire situation!
Washout by South-Asian Nations
Although politically Myanmar does not count as being part of South Asia, geo-politically and geo-strategically it is part of the region. For this very reason, it was considered part of the British-Indian Empire and ruled from Calcutta and later from New Delhi. Today it is crucial to the Quad’s Indo-Pacific Strategy in containing China. Its southern reaches command [together with the Indian Andaman and Nicobar islands] the entrance to the vital trade route of the Malacca Strait [between Malaysia and Sumatra of Indonesia].
Neither the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), nor individual countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have evinced any interest in the unfolding, pre-eminent humanitarian crisis in Myanmar.
Nepal’s own foreign policy is in the doldrums. With the Oli-gracefully consumed with domestic power-plays, intrigues and machinations, no external initiatives can be expected. Oli and his foreign minister Gyawali are too busy saving their own skins, as to risk ruffling Chinese feathers by disturbing the delicate Sino-Indian balance of power in the Himalayan Federal Democratic Republic (HFDR).
Biden’s First Press Conference
President Joe Biden offered some of his most wide-ranging remarks yet on the ideology and rationale of his foreign policy during his first formal White House news conference, going deep on three currently significant issues facing his administration.
The liberal media pundits rated his overall performance as strong as he doubled his vaccine pledge to 200 million doses in 100 days, requested more time to improve the handling of an influx of child migrants on the southern Mexican border and blasted Republicans for their voter suppression efforts in multiple states as “sick” and “un-American” (CNN, March 26).
He did give the impression that he knows exactly why he was elected president – to end the Covid-19 pandemic [Trump had made a hash of it]. He also appears to have a firm idea of what he is trying to do at home and overseas. But the big question is whether his plans survive the test of time and events!
Afghanistan
Biden made clear that he will not hold the May 1 deadline to remove all U.S. troops from the country [foolishly negotiated by the Trump administration without a reciprocal and proper quid pro quo], 20 years after the U.S. had sent forces to drive out al-Queda and capture its leader Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks in New York and the Pentagon. But he also said he “can’t picture” US forces still being deployed there in a year.
Biden has been calling for winding down the ‘forever’ war for years. However, violent attacks by Taliban forces throughout the country have raised palpable fears the extremist Islamist insurgents could take back the country if the US and NATO allies go home.
The administration has yet to chalk out a viable path of disengaging and achieving ‘peace with honour’ and leaving the war-torn country capable of pursuing an independent course of action for sustainable development.
North Korea
After North Korea launched the first missile test of his presidency, Biden was not much ruffled.
However, after the second set of ballistic missile tests by Pyongyang, he was no longer amused. He stated sternly that these infringed a UN Security Council resolution and that there would be “responses” if it kept up its act. He still favours “some form of diplomacy” as his administration finalizes a North Korea policy review. However, insisting on denuclearization will not get him very far with the wily Kim.
China
Biden’s most interesting comments were on China, with which his administration has already had a problematic/unsteady start.
He said categorically that President Xi Jinping “doesn’t have a democratic – with a small ‘d’ – bone in his body, but he’s a smart, smart guy. He’s one of the guys like Putin who thinks that autocracy is the wave of the future, [that] democracy can’t function in an ever-complex world.”
In his first phone call with Xi, Biden had made clear that while he was not attempting confrontation, “there will be steep, steep competition.”
He also claimed that he had gained Beijing’s “attention” by holding a cyber summit with Australia, India and Japan – the so-called “Quad” – about how to hold China accountable to international rules in the Indo-Pacific region.
“Rocket Man” is Back!
North Korea claimed last Friday that it had launched a new type of tactical short-range ballistic missile. This highlighted military advances by the nuclear-armed state and propelled it to the top U.S. President Joe Biden’s national security agenda (Reuters, March 26).
The United States condemned Thursday’s missile launches, which came ‘timely’ hours before Biden held his first White House press conference since taking office in January. Biden affirmed that the so-called ‘Hermit Kingdom’ was the top foreign policy issue facing his administration.
Biden had previously left North Korea entirely out of his maiden foreign policy speech in February, and in outlining eight diplomatic priorities in March, his secretary of state did not focus on North Korea at all, except to list it as one of several countries that pose a challenge—out of sight, out of mind.
The launches, which were North Korea’s first ballistic missile tests in nearly a year, highlighted the steady progress in its weapons programme since denuclearization talks with the United States had floundered completely under former President Donald Trump—who only bragged of his ‘bromance’ with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
While rejecting previous American overtures, North Korea has used measured language, insisting it will only return to talks if the United States drops its hostile policies. The tests were in the first instance an attempt at boosting its leverage, should talks resume.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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