From Far & Near
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Updated on 3 November
US Presidential & Congressional Elections: The Final Lap
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden invoked the legacy of Franklin D. Roosevelt in an inspiring speech near the former president’s Georgia retreat last Tuesday, promising to heal the nation from a series of cascading crises [coronavirus pandemic, economic meltdown, degenerating race relations] in his closing argument just a week before the ‘Election Day’, although more than half the American electorate have already cast their ballots in early voting.
Speaking from Warm Springs, Biden used Roosevelt’s efforts to alleviate his polio sickness in the therapeutic waters as a metaphor for the daunting work – domestic and worldwide – that lies ahead.
“This place, Warm Springs, is a reminder that though broken, each of us can be healed,” Biden said encouragingly: “That as a people and a country, we can overcome this devastating virus. That we can heal a suffering world. And yes, we can restore our soul and save our country.” (Bloomberg/Tyler Pager, October 28).
For the first time since 1992, the political dynamics in Georgia have changed significantly. Biden and the Democrats hope to re-win the state, not only in the presidential race, but also the Senate seat. In an average of state polls, Biden leads Trump, 48 percent to 46.8 percent. Is it a self-fulfilling prophecy when Biden claimed/hoped: “[If] we win Georgia, we win everything.”
Biden also laid out his comprehensive plans – his closing argument – to the American people. He attacked Trump vehemently for surrendering in the struggle against the coronavirus and vowed to confront the pandemic vigorously with a holistic approach. Simultaneously, he would address income inequality, racial inequities and science-proved climate change.
The former vice-president has cast the race as a referendum on Trump’s first term and largely about his monumental mismanaged response to the coronavirus, which has killed around 230,000 Americans [and still counting] amid an alarming new surge of infections rising across the entire US.
In a New Deal echo, Biden had previously underscored the spectrum of the challenge: “The next president is going to inherit an economy and circumstance that is as dangerous and consequential as Roosevelt did after the Depression.
Biden also referenced Pope Francis, repeating his warning against phony populism to call for healing and unity.
The deeply religious Biden, exhorted his countrymen: “The Bible tells us that there is a time to break down, and a time to build up. And a time to heal. This is that time, God and history have called us to this moment and to this mission. With our voices and our votes, we must free ourselves from the forces of darkness, from the forces of division and from the forces of yesterday – from the forces that pull us apart, hold us down, and hold us back.”
Such uplifting words could have been addressed not only to the American people, but to the world at large, where leadership is very prominent – by its absolute absence!
Doomsday Scenario for Trump?
According to national and state polls, as well as the forecasts of experts and respected pundits, Trump has already lost the ‘Battle for the Soul of the Nation’, and is on the way out.
U.S. historian Professor Allan Lichtman [German man of light!] who has accurately predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984 [the ominous year of George Orwell fame!], using “13 keys” that primarily access the performance of the party in power, predicts that Donald Trump will definitely lose the 2020 race.
Lichtman explains that the “13 Keys” (parameters) “…look at the fundamentals of what drive US presidential elections – not the polls, not the punditry, not the speeches, the debates, the adds, the fundraising, the dirty tricks of the campaign. Those trivia don’t matter at all” (Al Jazeera, Oct. 19).
What matters are things such as the strength of the economy and whether there is social unrest, underlined Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington.
Thus, according to Lichtman’s[foolproof?] analytical system, America’s economic plunge [according to Bill Clinton’s maxim: ‘it’s the economy, stupid!] amid the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide racial protests in 2020 have effectively sealed Trump’s fate. He will be the first sitting president since George H.W. Bush [father of the later George W.], who in 1992 lost re-election.
All the Polls are for Biden
The ultimate expert on polling, Dave Wassermann is fully aware that in many respects 2020 is haunted by 2016. He was then one of the few exceptions among political seers who predicted – in mid-September, no less – that Trump might very well lose the popular vote and yet win the Electoral College (Vanity Fair, Hive/Mark McKinnon, Oct. 26).
This time around, he is convinced that Biden will win.
Leading American Pundit Bats for Biden
The Indian-American Fareed Zakaria host of CNN’s prestigious GPS show Sundays and one of the world’s most astute thinkers, concedes that he was one of those people who didn’t think Trump could win in 2016: “He was just too weird, too vulgar, utterly ignorant about most policy issues and pathologically incapable of telling the truth, even about trivial things” (The Washington Post, Oct. 23).
This time, he will take his chances and once again predict that Trump will lose, because he would still rather bet on – and believe in – the best in America.
The Electoral College is Key
Americans are not voting for the President of the United States (POTUS) directly , but rather voting for their electors in their respective states and indicating to their electors collectively which candidate they want as president. Rather than one national election, it is, therefore, state-by-state elections. It can be argued that the American electoral system is needlessly complicated in the modern era, and can turn out to be undemocratic if a candidate wins the Electoral College, but loses the total popular vote [George W. Bush, Donald Trump].
America consists of 50 constituent states. Each of them are allotted a distinct number of ‘electoral votes’ in the ‘Electoral College’. A state is allocated one elector for every member in the House of Representatives (435 members) and every member of the Senate (100) representing that state. The District of Columbia (DC/comprising the capital city) has no Congressional representative, but also has 3 electors. That makes a total of 538 electors.
A candidate must reach 270 to be elected president. Most of the states are strongholds of either party, i.e. ‘Red’ states (Republican) or ‘Blue’ states (Democratic), and their electoral votes are, therefore, already guaranteed to their dominant party. It is the swing states that will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome.
This year’s 8 swing states with their electoral votes are all leaning towards Biden, with the exception of Ohio:
Arizona (11)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)
Ohio (18)
Florida (29)
According to the poll pundits with all their combinations and permutations, if Biden carries all these swing states (i.e. without Ohio) – where he is leading in the polls with various percentage points — he is slated to win 330 votes in the Electoral College – more than enough for his entrée to the White House. Moreover, he doesn’t need to win all the swing states to reach the magic number 270. He has many paths to decisive victory.
Trump, on the other hand, is trailing badly in some of the swing states, and his path to success is severely limited. For instance, if Trump loses Florida, he not only becomes toast, but badly burnt toast at that.
Control of the Senate
Trump’s hopes of winning a second term are slim, according to CNN Editor-at-Large Chris Cillizza. The Republicans have also tried desperately to retain their Senate majority and avoid total Democratic control of the executive and legislative branches come 2021 (Nov.1).
The fight for the Senate is more competitive than the presidential race, but the Democrats are still likely to net 4-6 seats and gain control [currently with a Republican majority at 53 – 47]. They need a net gain of three seats to win the majority if Biden is elected [since his vice-president Kamala Harris would be officially chairperson of the Senate and cast the decisive vote in case of ties], and four seats if Trump is re-elected.
Trump’s Narrow Path to Victory – the Magic 270 Electoral Votes
Trump’s only path to victory – and a long shot at that – is the following hypothetical electoral map.
Trump starts with 125 electoral votes from ‘Red’ states that are solidly in his camp and centered in the upper Plains states and the South.
He also takes [speculated] the battleground states that have traditionally favoured Republicans at the presidential level: Texas (38 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Ohio (18) and Arizona (11). This gives him a total of 208 electoral votes.
No Republican has won the White House in a century without winning Florida, the ‘Sunshine State’ with its 29 electoral votes. Assuming Trump also wins the state [by hook or by crook!], he reaches the 237 total.
Give Trump the benefit of the doubt with regard to Iowa (6) and North Carolina (15), both of which Trump won in 2016, and he reaches 258 electoral votes.
Crucially, it all comes down to Pennsylvania (20) in the upper Mideast, a state that Trump carried in 2016 with only 44,000 votes. If he wins this state, Trump reaches 278 and a second term is his! (CNN/Chris Cillizza, Nov.1). However, there is no room for error!
Biden on the Cusp of Victory
Unlike Trump, who has a very narrow set of paths to get to 270 electoral votes, Biden has many ways to get to that magic number.
Biden has a solid basis of 203 electoral votes from traditional Democratic – ‘Blue’ – states.
Add to this Nevada (6 electoral votes) and Colorado (9) in the Far West, where the demographic make-up has trended away from Trump’s version of conservatism. That’s 218 electoral votes.
Moving to the former traditional Democratic states in the upper Midwest – Minnesota (10), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10) are again trending towards Biden.This makes 254 electoral votes.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania where he was born and went to junior school, he adds 20 electoral votes, making a total of 274 and giving him the White House.
In such a scenario, Biden could lose Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Iowa and Ohio and still be elected president.
The Bottom Line
Most people are aware that Donald Trump remains an evil genius – deeply immoral and malevolent. He still has many dirty tricks up his sleeve and will probably not go quietly but leave a huge mess behind. He is also willing to jump the gun and declare victory, even though the counting process may still be continuing. He has already started casting doubts on the integrity of the election process! There is exceptional enthusiasm as 99.5 million had already cast their votes before Tuesday, November 3 – that is 73 percent of the total in 2016!
The Democratic establishment and those sympathetic to them are ‘cautiously optimistic’ that they will be able to make a clean sweep, i.e. increase their predominance in the House of Representatives, gain a majority in the Senate and prevail for the White House. It would be a fitting end to Trump’s reign of terror.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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