BY SHASHI MALLA
US President Donald Trump’s abrupt pullback of US troops from north-eastern Syria has not only completely reshaped the complicated civil war in that country, but also the political and military landscape, as well as, the international strategic constellation in the region.
It is first of all important and necessary to evaluate the instigator-in-chief of this catastrophic turn of events. Trump has turned out to be the most inept chief executive and commander-in-chief in the history of the United States [and also the most corrupt according to former Vice President Joe Biden, his putative presidential challenger], but still he considers himself the most competent president [POTUS] and brags about it most unabashedly! The mythological Greek Narcissus must be squirming. He stands completely naked, like ‘the emperor with his fantastic new clothes’, but no one has the guts to inform him, least of all the Republican leaders with their cowardly behavior. Thus Trump plods on, causing havoc not only in the domestic arena, but in the world at large.
Trump’s Syrian Betrayal
In the short span of only seven days, since Trump used what he called his “great and unmatched wisdom” to order the withdrawal of US troops from their outposts in north-eastern Syria, the map of the Syrian civil/international war has been completely transformed.
Trump’s unilateral and shortsighted decision was made without the help of his own national security and foreign policy advisers, his Kurdish allies on the ground in Syria, as well as, his international coalition partners in the region in the fight against the dreaded Islamic State in Syria (ISIS). His order to pull out of a so-called “endless war” gave Turkey the green light to send its troops into Syria, i.e. invade the sovereign territory of a neighbouring state. This has complicated the ground reality in this northern part of the country no end.
Turkey’s Incursion into North-Eastern Syria
Turkey’s President RecepTayyip Erdogan has claimed and justified his military’s incursion with the argument that he was targeting the Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) because they are allied to his country’s own minority Kurdish rebels from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), fighting for their own autonomy, and, therefore, posing a grave security threat. He planned to control both sides of the Turkish border with north-eastern Syria, and to set up an occupation/security zone around 32 km deep. And into that zone he wants to evict more than two million Syrian refugees, currently living in Turkey. This would not be a good idea, as it would change the demographic structure of that region radically.
Just a week ago, the small number of US troops [mostly in an advisory and training capacity] were the substantial symbol of what seemed to be a security guarantee to the Syrian Kurds, who had become indispensable allies in the war against the extremist jihadists of the Islamic State (IS). The Kurds fought valiantly and resolutely and died on the ground in substantial numbers [the allied loss was negligible], while the US, the UK and others provided air power and special forces troops. When the so-called Caliphate, the self-styled entity of the IS collapsed [but was not completely wiped out as Trump had claimed], the Kurds rounded up and jailed thousands of jihadists fighters and put their family members in guarded camps.
In the blink of an eye, Trump changed the scenario by capitulating to Erdogan and “set off a chain of events that betrayed America’s ally, the Syrian Kurds, and opened a cornucopia of opportunities for Turkey, the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, its backers, Russia and Iran, and the jihadist extremists of Islamic State (IS)” (Jeremy Bowen/BBC).
After Trump’s ignominious betrayal, the Kurds, for reasons of existential self-preservation, had no other option than to make a quick deal with the detested regime of autocratPresident Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran and a sworn adversary of the United States – dramatically changing the trajectory of the war-torn country.
A Delusionary Truce?
After massive domestic and international condemnation, the Trump administration has now attempted to put back the clock in damage control, or to use another metaphor, it is trying to shut the stable door after the horse has already bolted. The US has sanctioned Turkey’s defence and energy ministries, as well as the ministers of defence, energy and the interior. Trump also phoned his Turkish counterpart Erdogan to demand an immediate truce. But the authoritarian Erdogan did not back down, because he also sees this foreign adventure as a welcome means to bolster his flagging domestic support.
Nor will Trump’s favourite tactic of using tariffsand sanctions as a tool of foreign policy work, as it has also not done so vis-à-vis China, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela. There has already been a sea change on the ground in North-Eastern Syria, and a return to the status quo ante is well nigh impossible. Trump has been left high and dry with no domestic or international support.
Trump did send his vice president Mike Pence, his secretary of state [SoS] Mike Pompeo and national security adviser Robert O’Brien [in office only a bare month] on a fool’s errand to Ankara to call back the dogs of war. Because of the domestic impeachment enquiry, Trump’s beloved walls are closing in on him, and to put it very mildly and in American jargon, he has lost his cool!
Last week Thursday, Washington and Ankara agreed to a temporary truce in Turkey’s week-old offensive against Kurdish fighters [Washington insisting on the term “ceasefire”, while the Turks saying it was merely a pause, i.e. interruption] in northeastern Syria, who were once Washington’s ally.
Turkish-led bombardment in and around the northeastern town of Ras al-Ayn put the five-day truce into question, as fighting continued between Turkey and the Kurdish forces. The US-Turkey brokered deal was meant to allow the Syrian Kurdish fighters of the YPG, a Kurdish militia at the heart of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey deems a terrorist group because of its links to its own Kurdish minority insurgents within Turkey itself.
Strategic Map Changes
The US-Turkey ceasefire/truce/pause envisions Kurdish fighters vacating a swath of border territory inside Syria, which would largely consolidate the gains Ankara’s forces have achieved after ten days of fighting (DW/Deutsche Welle, October 18, 2019). The SDF had said it would abide by the ceasefire along a section of the border between Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad to its west, where most of the fighting had taken place.
Turkey’s operation was dealt a major setback when the YPG called for the support of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces, aiding their return to the northeastern border area after many years. Russian forces backing the Assad regime have also moved into the area, potentially curtailing how far Ankara can advance with its plans.
Trump willingly and wantonly sacrificed vital national interests in the region and the US now has little leverage to influence events – Trump has made a hurried and ignominous exit with his tail between his legs! Another dangerous dimension is the fact that Erdogan can hold US tactical nuclear bombs deposited at an air-base in Turkey hostage!
International Dimension
Trump’s short-sighted action has also exposed the weaknesses of the European Union’s (EU) policy in the region. The EU has urged Turkey to end its Syria military operation saying it had caused “unacceptable human suffering” without any effect whatsoever.
Turkey’s military offensive, facilitated by the withdrawal of US troops, is threatening to rebalance geopolitics in the region. The changing dynamics could place Israel in a precarious position and force it to rethink its options (DW/Deutsche Welle).After all, according to Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister, Trump has proved to be most unreliable. His “cavalier abandonment of the Kurds is but the latest in a long series of devastating betrayals by his administration” (Project Syndicate/Republica, October 21: “Trump’s perfidious America”).
It is now Russian President Vladimir Putin, greatly admired by Trump, who holds the keys to unraveling both the border confrontation, as well as, the broader Syrian conflict. He has become a key player in the larger Middle East and bolstered Russia’s ambitions/pretensions as an influential great power. Erdogan and Putin are slated to meet at the Black Sea resort of Sochi on October 22, when the five-day truce ends.
Domestic Repercussions
There has been tremendous domestic backlash over Trump’s singlehanded treacherous decision. It will definitely rank as one of the most spectacular failures in the history of US foreign policy (Candace Rondeaux: World Politics Review).
Former CIA Director and retired Army General David Petraeus told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” that the US had betrayed and abandoned “our Syrian Kurdish partners” who had suffered 10,000 losses in the defeat of the Islamic State. The summary retreat “does not end an endless war [Trump’s raison d’etat and campaign promise] . . . it probably prolongs it because this gives ISIS an opportunity for resurgence,” Petraeus said emphatically.
Retired General Joseph Votel, former head of US Central Command, and other former top officials have also issued sharp warnings. The “abandonment threatens to undo five years’ worth of fighting against ISIS and will severely damage American credibility and reliability,” Votel and co-author Elizabeth Dent wrote in The Atlantic.
Trump’s never-ending and chronic contempt of institutional and foreign policy norms, including questioning alliances and injecting partisan rhetoric into military events, have prompted former military officers to set aside the code of military silence. This even culminated last week in an opinion piecein The New York Times calling for Trump’s removal from the high office of POTUS by retired Admiral William McRaven, who headed the US Special Operations Command.
Calls for Impeaching & Removing Trump Growing
According to prolific The Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson, “No one has worked more aggressively to trigger impeachment [charging and starting the process of removing a high public official from office] than the president” [!]
Among his ‘lesser’ character shortcomings: he has been “more gratuitously offensive than candidate Trump.” He is a proven and compulsive liar and till date more than 13,000 lies and deceptions have been attributed to him.
Samuelson writes that “Trump appeals to his supporters’ basest human instincts. He regularly uses immigration to stir racial and ethnic tensions.” He also regularly insults almost anyone who criticizes or differs with him.
Most of his foreign and national security policies are collapsing. He has made no progress in limiting North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, and Marshal Kim Jong Un has made a fool of him. Both Japan and South Korea hold Trump in contempt for undermining their national security.
His trade negotiations with China have been woefully inadequate, despite high tariffs imposed by both countries. An economic recession could even imperil the world economy.
His ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran has been a dismal failure, emboldening the clerical regime and the Revolutionary Guards Corps to adopt a more aggressive course in the Middle East. Israel can no longer count on the US to come to its aid if Iran or its proxies attacks it in retaliation for its actions in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria and Iraq.
Now, Samuelson writes: “Trump has descended to new levels of recklessness with his behavior involving Ukraine and Syria.” He undermined US national security by applying pressure on the president of Ukraine to collude to find dirt on former vice president Joe Biden, a potential 2020 opponent. He even withheld badly needed military aid to achieve his dastardly goal. All in all, an impeachable offence.
Trump’s Syrian decision was a strategic blunder and a moral outrage. It can be seen as the final straw of his declining presidency: “the president’s behavior is so erratic and disconnected from underlying realities that it poses an immediate threat to the country.” The only recourse left is impeachment and removal from office.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
Login to add a comment