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Heading towards bloody confrontation

By Our Political Analyst
Now, it is almost clear that even if the constitution amendment proposal is tabled in the House, it cannot be endorsed as the government cannot manage necessary number to reach two-thirds majority. On moral ground, UML has already owned the battle and now UML is taking stance on constitutionalism. As per the constitutional provision, without approval of the provincial parliament, the boundaries of the provinces cannot be amended. Similarly, the resent parliament is a body transformed from the constituent assembly and this body has no prerogatives for amendment of the constitution and the parliament has the only mandate to implement the constitution, UML leaders have been predicting. Therefore, the UML leaders have understood that now the government should move forward for conducting elections for total implementation on the constitution. By 21 January 2018, the government should hold three elections – local, provincial and national. If missed the deadline of 21 January, 2018, the present constitution may face a serious crisis. As there is no sign of successfully holding three elections by the given deadline, it is obvious that the constitution is going to face a crisis after 21 April, 2018.
Indian factor:
India has not yet recognized the present constitution. India wants amendment of the constitution as soon as possible. The Indian bottom-line is two provinces by comprising all the Tarai districts. However, Indians are in a mood to accept the amendment of the constitution if hill districts are excluded from the No 4 Province for the time being. However, after making No 2 and No 4 provinces separate from hill districts, the Indians will put pressure to the governments here to expand No 2 province by including three Tarai districts in the east and two Tarai districts in the west.
As per the Indian design, the Tarai centric political parties are being mobilized here. If the constitution amendment process is derailed from the parliament, the Tarai centric parties are preparing for a bloody agitation in the Tarai districts. Obviously, one cannot undermine that the Tarai centric parties are bagging Indian support and to create violence, the Tarai centric parties will receive further support.
The present NC and MC coalition government was formed as per the Indian design and in spite of strong criticism within their own parties, supreme leaders of the NC and MC are trying to serve the Indian interests. Be that as it may, there is no sign of peace in the country in the days to come.

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