By Dr Rajendra Shrestha
I am revisiting my earlier analysis of the county situation two and half years ago which I shared on FB and social media. I warned the concerned leaders, professionals, authorities and public at large about the deteriorating country situation and suggested necessary reforms then.
Unfortunately, it is getting worse by the day. More and more people across the board are witnessing and experiencing the same. I strongly feel that it is a systemic as well as a leadership failure for the following reasons.
Economy: It is in shambles with all the economic indicators showing negative trends. lowest economic growth, deficit financing, rising trade deficit, rapidly declining foreign reserve (six months), rising inflation (double digit), wrong policy and programs (distributive and consumptive), uncontrolled external dependency, unproductive investment, and oversized budget (only 40 percent development budget spent recklessly). Budget making this year has been tampered by vested interest groups questioning the legality and validity of the budget resulting in forced resignation of the finance minister for investigation.
Over the years, development strategy and priorities have failed the economy from being self-reliant and sustainable. The past strategy of import substitution and export promotion based on Nepal’s comparative and competitive advantages has been replaced by layers of middlemen trading exploiting both the producers and consumers. This needs to be reversed asap.
Foreign policy and international relations: Inconsistent FP, incompetent and inefficient FP execution mechanism (MoFA, advisors and missions abroad) increasing outside interference (especially from the US, India and China) have turned Nepal into a playground. Lack of Nepal First approach, diplomatic acumen to negotiate for Nepal’s benefit and low levels of confidence among leaders and Nepali diplomats have eroded Nepal’s international credibility threatening its geopolitical and strategic importance in the changing global order.
Nepal’s FP execution in recent years has become more and more unbalanced, and ineffective threatening its autonomy, independence, sovereignty and non-aligned policy. It is advisable now to declare Nepal as a zone of peace to avoid it being potentially a battleground for superpowers. Lessons to be learnt from Ukraine, Sikkim and Afghanistan.
Governance: Bureaucracy is the permanent form of government to execute policies and programs benefiting people. However, over the years, it has become ineffective marred by institutionalized corruption (Nepal is among the most corrupt), inefficient/oversized, unaccountable and non-transparent. Instead of facilitating development and basic services efficiently to the people on time, it has become more controlling and bureaucratic.
Too many layers of government (central, regional and local) have raised serious issues of affordability, relevance, misuse of resources and corruption. There is no justification (political, economic, or administrative) for the regional government in the disguise of decentralization of power. Instead, local capacity needs to be built to deliver services to people more effectively on time.
Democratic Institutions: All three founding pillars of democracy, the executive, legislative and judiciary are not functioning as mandated and expected. They are marred by corruption, nepotism, and non-adherence to the rules, norms and values that govern them. Neither can they perform a check and balance mechanism nor can they coordinate to safeguard the constitution.
The same is true with political institutions (parties) due to vested individual/party interest above national interest, incompetency, and lack of democratic values/norms/practice. Inter and intra-party conflict for power gains have raised serious questions about the viability of a multi-party system. Independent individual candidates (capable, trustworthy) winning local elections despite odds against (money, muscle and power of the big parties) is a good example of people’s dissatisfaction with the establishment. Need to see more of the capable and committed youths replacing the expired old leadership in the coming national elections.
Political leaders and their moral values: Leaders display low levels of moral standards, often incompetent/unqualified, corrupt and unaccountable to people. More so they are not honest. They promise everything to woo the voters and deliver very little (or nothing) and make all kinds of excuses. People are beginning not to trust and rely on them. More and more are looking for better alternatives.
Conclusion: The country is inching closer to becoming a failed state. People’s apathy, frustration and anger towards leaders and the system are turning into revolt. Before it is too late, if leaders do not reform in time for a systemic change, public protest/revolt for regime change is inevitable; Nepal's situation is becoming similar to Sri Lanka by the day. Leaders, be aware and take necessary actions in time before it is too late. There is a limit to people’s tolerance and complacency. Enough is Enough.
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