BY N.P UPADHYAYA
Nepal’s Prime Minister has embarked on a political suicide mission. His preference to visit Delhi first over Beijing will soon make him feel that he was very cleverly cheated, duped and thus defeated by Indian establishment now under the control of the economic blockade expert, Narendar Bhai Modi and his teammate in the former British Raj not in the distant past.
Nationalists back home had advised PM Oli through various available channels that he should visit India at a much later date, however, his haste seen in making India visit first is not only puzzling but fear is that he may get lured to sign a joint communiqué a la 1990 June 10 that had been, if one were to recall the good old days of the 90s, wherein the incumbent Interim Prime Minister of Nepal, KP Bhattarai, was tentatively forced to put his signature on the joint communiqué which forced Nepal to listen and act as per the dictates of New Delhi regime as against bringing the status quo ante to the continuing economic blockade then mercilessly imposed upon Nepal by the unfriendly regime then.
VP Singh was Indian PM then. Sober, yet very cunning.
Mind it that it was this economic blockade imposed by the most unfriendly regime to “teach and lesson” to the then King Birendra who had later to step down to the status of a constitutional monarch from what he used to be an active monarch.
The Nepali Congress, and some fringe communist parties together, in close collaboration with the Indian regime had revolted against the then King and the King in turn considered it logical better to bow down to his own people instead of kneeling down to the most hated regime which had proposed a security agreement with India in lieu of the continuation of the Panchayat regime in Nepal for several decades to come.
Neither the then Nepal PM MM Singh nor King Birendra accepted the India’s Nepal killing proposal. Glaring example of nationalism exhibited by the great sons of the soil.
The King then denied and paid the price. The India proposed security document, if signed by Nepal then, would have turned this nation an Indian protectorate a la baby Bhutan. The India crafted security document was then brought to Nepal by the then Foreign Secretary SK Singh to which both the Nepal King and his Prime Minister Marich Man Singh rejected summarily as stated earlier.
Since then perhaps Nepal as a nation-state has been going down and the downward speed thus continues even as of today albeit the players both in Nepal and India may have changed. The mindset in India remains the same.
The slide speed is frightening now.
Later with the advent of India sponsored democracy in the early 1990s that continues even as of now under various names, Nepal PM GP Koirala hastily signed a treaty with India on Mahakali River which makes the entire Nepali population to shed tears for it was a treaty that benefitted India and India only.
Indian PM Narsiha rao suggested Mr. Koirala not to make haste in signing this treaty but Chief Secretary Damodar Gautam exerted pressure on Koirala and thus the treaty got signed. Whether Mr. Gautam played a trick with PM Koirala or not is not known but the rumors were then in the political circuit then in Kathmandu.
Recall, UML’s KPS Oli then remained instrumental in finalizing the treaty in India’s favor inside the Nepali parliament. Ask the then Indian Ambassador KV Rajan for its authenticity. This scribe is sure about it.
The same Oli is Nepal PM today who is visiting Delhi. So to expect political substantial benefits for Nepal from him would be a self-defeating exercise.
Even much later, several seen and unseen, declared and undeclared treaties or binding agreements with the force of a treaty have been signed with India wherein Nepal has remained always a loser as usual. Interesting is the fact that the successive Nepal Prime Ministers have signed the India drafted document willingly without bringing such a document even for a public debate prior to the signing of such agreements initiated calculatedly by the Indian regime.
The former British colony has ever duped Nepal.
No wonder then late GP Koirala in close cooperation with the BJP and the Indian congress regime brought the Nepal Maoists from their shelter in NOIDA, Delhi, to Kathmandu through the 12 point agreement drafted in Hindi by New Delhi regime and the politics since then we all know better.
Later it was translated in Nepali and English, high placed sources said then.
While these clandestine political bids were going, KPS Oli too made good out of this RIVER connection and got himself treated for his renal impairment at Medanta Hospital, Delhi, and as the rumors have it, the treatment that KPS Oli received in Delhi was all free which is why perhaps the incumbent Prime Minister KPS Oli has been obliged to pay this debt as an obliged Nepali national. So be it.
Paying one’s debt is not bad in itself as the saying goes. But it should not be at the cost of the nation.
Life saving help that India extended to our Prime Minister Oli is commendable, however, what is objectionable is that in the name of life saving, PM Oli has no right to tear apart the lives of the millions and millions of Nepali nationals by mortgaging the national prestige and integrity of a sovereign state that is Nepal by bowing down to a regime that has ever remained inimical to Nepali people and the nation’s territorial integrity together with sovereignty. Is Nepal destined to lose? Perhaps, yes, more so after the 1990 change!
PM Oli had acted well at time of the India imposed fresh economic blockade, 2015, by siding with the Northern neighbor China which have had signaled the blockade expert regime that Nepal too has some cards under its sleeves should India act in a barbaric manner. Thanks China that she supported Nepal at time of her need. The Chinese benevolence exhibited that time can never be forgotten.
Now that since China appears in a pleasing mood to extend its all out support to Nepal as per our needs and requirements, the unwanted visit being made to India by PM Oli not only shall disturb the Chinese authorities to the extent that the northern neighbor may even suspect the very political credentials of our PM.
Chinese concern in this regard is genuine.
The suspicion must have begun in the minds of the Chinese regime. But since the Chinese believe in quiet and subtle diplomacy and thus to come to a conclusion that China will prefer now to keep a distance with politically unstable Nepal would be a hasty decision. Not at all. China understands better the Nepali compulsions and by this time is in knowledge as to what Medanta means to Nepal PM Oli. .
China is wise enough in that she has ever understood the Nepali compulsions from the time of Chairman Mao and paramount leader Deng.
Having said all this, nothing has been lost yet. PM Oli just the other day has assured us all that Nepal as a sovereign nation shall pursue a balanced foreign policy with its immediate neighbors namely China and India.
If PM Oli remains true to his declarations then China should get ready in welcoming PM Oli upon his return from India-the known and declared coercive regime.
Okay, let Oli visit Delhi but he should not betray the Nepali people’s aspirations that there should not be any sort of agreements, not even a joint communiqué, that undermines Nepali prestige and hits hard the prospects of increasing Nepal-China ties which promises, to a greater extent, extending its support in making Nepal a self reliant nation in the coming years. Be it known to PM Oli that he has no room or say space to deal with a cruel India that has always cheated and whitewashed us as and when we have embarked or desired to do so on the path to develop ourselves for the betterment of our India tortured people non-stop.
While visiting Delhi, Nepali PM should think of his beleaguered people who have been forced to obey to the unwanted sermons and to the dictates of a regime that has wore a garb of democracy but in effect it is not. Moreover, PM Oli has to think that he can’t exceed his executive limits in betraying China, the all season friend of Nepal at least as of now, by going into reverse to what has been already inked with China during his last visit to Beijing. The agreements made with China in the recent past need to be brought to action.
Any duplicity exhibited in this regard shall not be taken in good taste either by our northern neighbor China or by the domestic population for understandable reasons. Street option remains.
But why is Delhi so afraid of Beijing? There are multiple reasons as the history suggests.
India considers Nepal and the smaller neighbors in South Asia to be in its sphere of influence or say Delhi desires the Nehruvian doctrine to continue.
Reminds of the most infamous Monroe doctrine.
The High Himalayas remain of no constructive use for the Indian regime in this changed context. The politics of this part of the world has gone through a sea change wherein China has emerged as a super power. To boot, China’s extended and expanded relations with Pakistan over these years, more so after the initiation of the CPEC mega projects, the unstable South Asian region, albeit due to Indian making, has to a greater extent taken a sigh of relief in that with the massive presence of China in Pakistan, this troubled reason has now two political and nuclear deterrents against the Indian hegemony. Notably, Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities that it commands now has made South Asian region a bit safe.
In addition, the China factor in Pakistan has added more substance to the prospects of stability in South Asia. South Asia has now many powerful players, India should understand.
Pakistan’s struggle to balance the power against nukes remain even as of now a crucial factor in ensuring peace and stability in this part of the Himalayan South Asia. A post –nuclear era has proven that nuclear parity with India has been crucially stabilizing factor in the region. South Asian observers say that the US thus needs to balance its relationship with India and Pakistan, its former ally but now having estranged relations, by offering a nuclear deal to Pakistan on the same terms and conditions as has been signed with India-the former ally of the collapsed Soviet Union.
It would be a matter of wisdom if Nepal PM Oli makes it a point to sound to his counterpart that the regional body SAARC must not be held hostage to Indo-Pak rivalry instead India should pleasingly allow the regional meet to happen in Pakistan. If India agrees to this proposition then the South Asian population perhaps prefer to thank India unconditionally for its positive gesture. But will the congested Indian regime listen to this wise counsel? Cornered India is a bad and naughty boy of this region.
India must now console herself and bear with the real presence of heavy weight power China in the scheme of the South Asian politics. China now is here to remain for a long time to come. Rest assured Delhi babus.
Yet in a surprising development, must be taken with a positive note, the Indian High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria visited Lahore from march 29 to 31st on his first visit to the historic city. He interacted with prominent politicians, former diplomats, journalists, academicians, civil society representatives and business persons.
Event and moves like this one initiated by Mr. Bisaria in more ways than one improves the quality of the ties in between the two countries whose people treat and take each other as brothers. In fact, the people to people relations in between Pakistan and India are more than cordial. It is the politicians, more so from India, who spit venom against the government across the border.
It is in this sector also China can play a very important role in cementing the Indo-Pak rivalry provided India gives a positive nod. Yet, the track two diplomacy is already in place, as analysts have been told. Things are moving behind the scenes.
One more such news has emanated from Nepal. The sitting Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Ms. Yu Hong, this Saturday made a surprising trip to one of the areas in the Nepal’s Tarai plains, to be more precise, Bhokraha and Laukhi of the Koshi municipality inhabited by MUSHARS who had been the victim of the KOSHI river flood and talked to the locals and enquired of the Chinese assistance that had been provided at time of the last flood.
This means that China is already in the Nepali Tarai plains much to the discomfort of the Indian regime as usual. The Chinese support has already approached the Koshi municipality. Perhaps the Chinese envoy may have assured the local people of more support for the flood affected people. The beginning is encouraging.
India has now compulsions to reconcile with China.
In yet another political development in the SA region, the Pakistan Army Chief visited the Maldives last week.
The Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa set off on a three nation tour, beginning with Brunei, and then visiting Malaysia. It was his last stop though India was watching it jangled nerves. On last Friday, General Bajwa landed in Male, the Maldives, becoming the first high ranking foreign dignitary to visit the Maldives since the imposition( and subsequent lifting on March 22) of the emergency in that country.
General Bajwa met with President Abdulla Yameen, foreign minister Dr. Mohamed Asim, and other top officials, after which Yameen’s office issued a boilerplate statement-expressing a desire to “continue working together on issues of common concern”, while the General referred to their “brotherly Muslim nations further cultivating existing ties of friendship, understanding, cooperation in all field”.
For Yameen, hosting General Bajwa was a satisfying poke in India’s eye. For the General, arguably the most powerful man in Pakistan, the stopover in SA’s currently most watched country was strategic move.
Ringing alarm bells in India, Maldives and Pakistan have discussed the possibility of joint patrol of the vast exclusive economic zone, EEZ, of the strategically located Indian Ocean state during the Pak army chief visit to the Maldives.
The Maldives is now a bold country. The Indian envoy Mr. Akhilesh Mishra may have been pulling his hairs with this sudden development. The UP born Mr. Mishra was first secretary while serving the Indian embassy in Nepal.
Back home, here is for Nepal PM Oli a mild “domestic” dose from Dr. Upendra Gautam: “Hope PM Oli understands well that a red carpet welcome to him in Delhi doesn’t mean much for Nepalese when they continuously suffer the Delhi-prompted actions-blockade, inundation, cross border insecurity, impunity along the border increasing its criminalization”. Source: Twitter.
To a greater extent Dr. Gautam has spoken the inner minds of the common Nepali population. This should at least open the eyes of the Indian establishment as to how the general people in Nepal rate, and hate finally, India save a few tainted and painted intellectuals including a section of the so called vibrant media.
So much has been said of Oli’s impending trip to India. He is sure to be lured and cheated by the blockade-expert regime though Oli claims that our bilateral ties have attained a new height in the recent days. We, however, suggest him not to go after increasing the height but instead keep intact the height whatever we have as of now.
Now to wind up: The People’s Liberation Army, PLA, has said that the close ties between the armed forces of Pakistan and China will help maintain regional peace and global stability, Hindustan Times reported.
The statement from the Chinese military on last Thursday also added that the military cooperation was evidence of an all weather partnership between the two countries.
Perhaps this statement explains the rest because it speaks so many things unspoken. India should not panic as such news shall come in series in the future.
And for the Road: A three day seminar on CPEC will begin in Islamabad on 10th of this month. The seminar titled “CPEC harnessing the opportunities and addressing the challenges”. Will highlight the challenges and opportunities CPEC provides to the businesses, industries, and people at large.
(Now to see the readers three weeks later: Upadhyaya NP).
PM Oli awaits arm twisting during Delhi visit
BY N.P UPADHYAYA