By Our Reporter
How will be the structure of the upcoming House of Representatives, the major political parties are calculating.
Political observers have claimed that UML is to secure first position with the strength of 65 to 70 seats; NC to secure second position with 40 to 50 seats, Maoist to secure third position with the strength of 20 to 25 seats. Tarai parties’ alliance FSF and RJP-N will secure fourth position with the strength of 10 to 12 seats.
Among the small parties, RPP may win 2 seats (Kamal Thapa and RajendraLingden); RJM 1 seat (DurgaPoudel, wife of Mohan Bikram Singh) from Piuthan electoral constituency and NMKP’s PremSuwal from Bhaktapur constituency.
Furthermore, Bibek sheel Shajha party’s Rabindra Mishra and NC’s Prakashman Singh are in the neck to neck competition in Kathmandu-1 constituency. Bibeksheel party may bag one or two seats in the House of Representatives. Also, from proportional voting, this party may bag some seats as the party has attracted youth voters.
Similarly, Baburam Bhattarai of the Naya Shakti Party may secure his victory. Maoist leader NarayankajiShrestha and Bhattarai are in neck to neck competition in the first phase election in Gorkha-2.
In the 275 member House of Representatives, 165 are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting and 110 are elected through proportional electoral where voters vote for political parties, considering the whole country as a single election constituency.
UML has expected minimum 103 seats together with the Maoist members from direct election and it has wished to manage necessary number to bag simple majority through the proportional election. The Left alliance is confident on bagging minimum 138 votes even by including RPP. With the hope that RPP would join the Left alliance, as a gesture, the Left alliance has supported the RPP candidate in Jhapa.
Proportional election: In the same ratio, UML will secure first position, NC second position and Maoist third position and RJP-N and FSF will secure fourth position in the proportional election for House of Representatives, say political observers.
In the last CA election, RPPN was unable to secure a single seat from the direct election but from the proportional election, the party was able to secure 24 seats in the CA. However, this time, RPP is divided into three parties (RPP, RPP Democratic and RPP Nationalist) and votes will be divided among the three RPPs and RPP’s seats from proportional election may reduce.
There is the provision of bagging at least 3 percent of the total votes and election of minimum one candidate from the direct election to be recognized as the national party. Therefore, there may not be more than 6 parties having the status of national party.
In No 1 province, political observers say that the Left alliance will form the government; in the No 2 province, the Madheshi parties and NC may form a coalition government; in the No 3province, the left alliance will form the government; in the No 4 province the Left alliance and democratic alliance are in neck-to-neck competition. Therefore, there is the possibility of a coalition government in this province; in the No 5 and No 6 provinces,the Left alliance will form the government and in the No 7 province, NC will form the government.
Political parties claiming their victory
By Our Reporter